副标题: *Once You Know the Answer
作者: Duncan J. Watts
出版社: Crown Business
出版年: 2011-3-29
页数: 352
定价: GBP 16.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9780385531689
作者: Duncan J. Watts
出版社: Crown Business
出版年: 2011-3-29
页数: 352
定价: GBP 16.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9780385531689
内容简介 · · · · · ·
Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think agai... (展开全部) Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think agai... (展开全部) Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
作者简介 · · · · · ·
Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Sc... (展开全部)
Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.
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按有用程度 按页码先后 最新笔记
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第132页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
Historical explanations, in other words, are neither causal explanations nor even really descriptions—at least not in the sense that we imagine them to be. Rather, they are stories. As the historian John Lewis Gaddis points out, they are stories that are constrained by certain historical facts and other observable evidence.12 Nevertheless, like a good story, historical explanations concentr... (更多)
(收起)Historical explanations, in other words, are neither causal explanations nor even really descriptions—at least not in the sense that we imagine them to be. Rather, they are stories. As the historian John Lewis Gaddis points out, they are stories that are constrained by certain historical facts and other observable evidence.12 Nevertheless, like a good story, historical explanations concentrate on what’s interesting, downplaying multiple causes and omitting all the things that might have happened but didn’t. As with a good story, they enhance drama by focusing the action around a few events and actors, thereby imbuing them with special significance or meaning. And like good stories, good historical explanations are also coherent, which means they tend to emphasize simple, linear determinism over complexity, randomness, and ambiguity. Most of all, they have a beginning, a middle, and an end, at which point everything—including the characters identified, the order in which the events are presented, and the manner in which both characters and events are described —all has to make sense.
2012-01-31 04:34:14 1回应
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第148页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
尽管重要的历史事件在事后看来应该是可以被预测的(例如911的袭击、刺杀肯尼迪、Google的发迹),但这里的问题不仅在于归因,而且在于历史叙事:在历史事件发生的当时,我们甚至无法知道应该去预测什么。历史事件之所以重要,是因为后来发生的结果。 Making the right prediction is just as important as getting the prediction right. 不管有多少信息用什么算法都无法预知未来的根本原因在于:我们没有关于未来的信息,因... (更多)尽管重要的历史事件在事后看来应该是可以被预测的(例如911的袭击、刺杀肯尼迪、Google的发迹),但这里的问题不仅在于归因,而且在于历史叙事:在历史事件发生的当时,我们甚至无法知道应该去预测什么。历史事件之所以重要,是因为后来发生的结果。
不管有多少信息用什么算法都无法预知未来的根本原因在于:我们没有关于未来的信息,因此我们不知道应该预测什么。 (收起)Making the right prediction is just as important as getting the prediction right.
2012-02-01 20:23:13 回应
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第78页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
两组几乎完全一样的人群,面对完全一样的外部条件。仅仅因为一个人的心理阈值的一点细微差别,表现出来的结果就是暴力与和平、混乱与秩序的天差地别。这就是为什么尝试基于一个“代表人物”来理解人群是件根本上扯淡的事。 更准确点说,用这种方法来“理解”人群是可以的,正如一个愤怒的抗议群体,不管它是走向了暴力还是保持了平静,你都可以理解。但当你尝试用这种对历史的理解来预测未来的群体行为,你就会发现它扯淡的部分... (更多)两组几乎完全一样的人群,面对完全一样的外部条件。仅仅因为一个人的心理阈值的一点细微差别,表现出来的结果就是暴力与和平、混乱与秩序的天差地别。这就是为什么尝试基于一个“代表人物”来理解人群是件根本上扯淡的事。更准确点说,用这种方法来“理解”人群是可以的,正如一个愤怒的抗议群体,不管它是走向了暴力还是保持了平静,你都可以理解。但当你尝试用这种对历史的理解来预测未来的群体行为,你就会发现它扯淡的部分。严肃的历史学家说,历史是不可以重复不可以预测的;普通人说,那只是因为我们理解得还不够。 (收起)2012-01-29 06:49:09 回应
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第127页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
即使有一个无所不知的存在,它(也许应该是“祂”?)仍然无法像历史学家一样看待正在发生的事,因为它无法了解一件事在将来、在“历史中”的意义,因此也无法“讲述”一件事,甚至无法知道究竟哪件事才是值得被讲述的。 直到结束之前,事情都没有结束。 这句话又让我联想到了《The Annotated Turing》里的内容:如果宇宙是一台图灵机,自由意志在哪里?答案是:停机问题。除非你执行它,否则你无法知道结果,这就是自由意志... (更多)即使有一个无所不知的存在,它(也许应该是“祂”?)仍然无法像历史学家一样看待正在发生的事,因为它无法了解一件事在将来、在“历史中”的意义,因此也无法“讲述”一件事,甚至无法知道究竟哪件事才是值得被讲述的。直到结束之前,事情都没有结束。这句话又让我联想到了《The Annotated Turing》里的内容:如果宇宙是一台图灵机,自由意志在哪里?答案是:停机问题。除非你执行它,否则你无法知道结果,这就是自由意志。 (收起)2012-01-30 20:23:58 回应
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第148页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
尽管重要的历史事件在事后看来应该是可以被预测的(例如911的袭击、刺杀肯尼迪、Google的发迹),但这里的问题不仅在于归因,而且在于历史叙事:在历史事件发生的当时,我们甚至无法知道应该去预测什么。历史事件之所以重要,是因为后来发生的结果。 Making the right prediction is just as important as getting the prediction right. 不管有多少信息用什么算法都无法预知未来的根本原因在于:我们没有关于未来的信息,因... (更多)尽管重要的历史事件在事后看来应该是可以被预测的(例如911的袭击、刺杀肯尼迪、Google的发迹),但这里的问题不仅在于归因,而且在于历史叙事:在历史事件发生的当时,我们甚至无法知道应该去预测什么。历史事件之所以重要,是因为后来发生的结果。
不管有多少信息用什么算法都无法预知未来的根本原因在于:我们没有关于未来的信息,因此我们不知道应该预测什么。 (收起)Making the right prediction is just as important as getting the prediction right.
2012-02-01 20:23:13 回应
-
第132页
透明 (达摩流浪者)
Historical explanations, in other words, are neither causal explanations nor even really descriptions—at least not in the sense that we imagine them to be. Rather, they are stories. As the historian John Lewis Gaddis points out, they are stories that are constrained by certain historical facts and other observable evidence.12 Nevertheless, like a good story, historical explanations concentr... (更多)
(收起)Historical explanations, in other words, are neither causal explanations nor even really descriptions—at least not in the sense that we imagine them to be. Rather, they are stories. As the historian John Lewis Gaddis points out, they are stories that are constrained by certain historical facts and other observable evidence.12 Nevertheless, like a good story, historical explanations concentrate on what’s interesting, downplaying multiple causes and omitting all the things that might have happened but didn’t. As with a good story, they enhance drama by focusing the action around a few events and actors, thereby imbuing them with special significance or meaning. And like good stories, good historical explanations are also coherent, which means they tend to emphasize simple, linear determinism over complexity, randomness, and ambiguity. Most of all, they have a beginning, a middle, and an end, at which point everything—including the characters identified, the order in which the events are presented, and the manner in which both characters and events are described —all has to make sense.
2012-01-31 04:34:14 1回应
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- peter 生活中,我们有个词汇,叫“马后炮”,专指一些后见之明的、事后诸葛的家伙。 作为平凡老百姓,我们可以坦然面对这种缺陷,并且一笑了之。但如果说,在严谨的社会学研究界,也大量充斥着很多的马后炮,就不能不让人惊讶了,毕竟,这些家伙可是专业人士啊。 恰恰是专业人士,很容易犯迷糊。 作为专业的社会学家,作者对这些常...... (3回应)2011-09-26 5/5有用
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