While urbanization is now also prominent in low-income countries, the bigger picture obscures important differences across regions. Traditionally, Latin America has been the most urbanized developing region. South America, in particular, urbanized early and rapidly. By 1980, more than two-thirds of the region’s population was classified as urban, a share that rose to nearly 85percent in 2015. But its high degree of urbanization means that urbanization rates will decline, and future growth will remain small, while low-urbanized areas may urbanize faster in the future.
Urbanization impacts food consumption patterns. Higher urban income tends to increase demand for processed foods, as well as animal-source food, fruits and vegetables, as part of a broad dietary transition. Higher urban wages also tend to increase the opportunity costs of preparing food and favour food products that have a large amount of labour embedded in them, such as fast food, store-bought convenience foods and foods prepared and marketed by street vendors. With these changes, the nutrient content of diets is changing. Typically, diets are becoming higher in salt, fat and sugar and are, in general, more energy-dense. This shift in consumption patterns also means a shift in employment within the food system: fewer people work in agriculture and more work in transport, wholesaling, retailing, food processing and vending (Cohen and Garrett, 2009). 引自第15页
城市化影响食品消费模式。作为广泛饮食转型的一部分,较高的城市收入往往会增加对加工食品以及动物源食品、水果和蔬菜的需求。较高的城市工资也往往会增加准备食物的机会成本,并青睐有大量劳力嵌入其中的食品,例如快餐、商店购买的方便食品以及街头小贩准备和销售的食品。随着这些变化,饮食的营养成分也在发生变化。通常,饮食中盐、脂肪和糖的含量越来越高,并且通常能量密度更高。消费模式的这种转变也意味着食品系统内就业的转变:从事农业的人数减少,而从事运输、批发、零售、食品加工和自动售货的工作更多(Cohen and Garrett,2009 )。
2. Biofuels & Sugarcane
In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the production of biofuels, from around 60billion litres in 2007 to around 130billion litres in 2015. Output is projected to grow to 140billion litres in 2020 (IEA, 2016), with a corresponding impact on the production and consumption of food and feed crops. For example, between 2000 and 2011, world cereal consumption increased at a rate of 1.8percent a year. Almost one-third of that annual increase went towards biofuel production in the United States of America alone.
There has also been an increased use of vegetable oil for biofuel production. Between 2000 and 2009, the consumption of vegetable oil for all purposes grew at an annual rate of 5.1 percent, while the consumption
of vegetable oil for biofuel production grew at an annual rate of 23 percent (HLPE, 2011). Projections indicate that by 2024, one-quarter of sugarcane production will be used for the manufacturing of ethanol, a 21 percent increase from 2014 (OECD and FAO, 2015). The increase in production of these bioenergy crops has led to a conversion of considerable areas of forest
into farmland.引自第35页
植物油在生物燃料生产中的使用也有所增加。 2000 年至 2009 年间,用于各种用途的植物油消费量以每年 5.1% 的速度增长,而用于生物燃料生产的植物油消费量以每年 23% 的速度增长( The High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition 高专组,2011)。预测表明,到 2024 年,四分之一的甘蔗产量将用于制造乙醇,比 2014 年增加 21%( Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 经合组织和 Food and Agriculture Organization 粮农组织,2015)。这些生物能源作物产量的增加导致相当大的森林面积转变为农田。
3. Productivity & Sugar
Increased use of land, irrigation and agro-chemicals played a major role in the growth of agricultural production during the Green Revolution. However, it is now recognized that the gains were often accompanied by negative effects on agriculture’s natural resource base, including land degradation, salinization of irrigated areas, over-extraction of groundwater, the build-up of pest resistance and the erosion of biodiversity. Agriculture has also damaged the wider environment through deforestation, the emission of greenhouse gases and nitrate pollution of water bodies (FAO, 2011a).
Since the 1990s, average annual increases in the yields of maize, rice, and wheat at the global level have been slightly more than 1 percent, much lower than in the 1960s (Figure 5.1), while those of soybeans and sugarcane have been below 1 percent. Because the substantial additional amounts of food needed in coming decades will be produced mainly through yield increases, rather than major expansion of the cultivated area, cereal yield growth rates below 1 percent a year would be a worrying signal.2 There are also very large differences in crop yields between high-income and low-income countries (Table 5.2). Yields of wheat and rice in low-income countries are currently about half those in high-income countries.引自第47页
Yields of major crops (cereals, roots and tubers, pulses, sugar crops, oil crops and vegetables) also vary substantially across regions. Estimated yield gaps, expressed as a percentage of potential yields, exceed 50 percent in most low-income countries. They are largest in sub-Saharan Africa (76 percent) and lowest in East Asia (11 percent). The gap between farm yields and potential yields reflects constraints, such as insufficient adoption of more productive technologies, a lack of market integration and gender inequalities in small-scale family farming (FAO, 2011b). 引自第48页
The productivity of aquaculture has been increasing, owing to the intensification of production methods. In Asia, small-scale traditional pond aquaculture, in which a range of carp species with complementary feeding behaviours were stocked in fertilized ponds, has given way to farmed fish and crustacean production that is heavily, if not exclusively, reliant on feeds. Key drivers have been rising land prices and the high prices paid for farmed fish, which makes feeds affordable (Beveridge et al., 2013).
Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide, in all population groups, owing to increased consumption of foods that are high in energy, fats, added sugars or salt, and an inadequate intake of fruits, vegetables and dietary fibre. This ‘nutrition transition’ reflects rapid urbanization, the increased production of processed food, and more sedentary lifestyles. In 2014, some 40 percent of people aged 18 and over were overweight and, of these, 13 percent were obese (WHO, 2016e). Globally, 44 percent of adult diabetes cases, 23 percent of ischaemic heart disease and 7 to 41 percent of certain cancers are attributable to overweight and obesity (WHO, 2009). Almost two-thirds of the world’s population live in countries where overweight and obesity kill more people than underweight (WHO, 2016e). 引自第81页
由于高能量、高脂肪、高糖或高盐食物的消费量增加,以及水果、蔬菜和膳食纤维摄入量不足,全世界所有人群的超重和肥胖症都在增加。这种“营养转变”反映了快速的城市化、加工食品产量的增加以及久坐不动的生活方式。 2014 年,约 40% 的 18 岁及以上人群超重,其中 13% 肥胖(世卫组织,2016e)。在全球范围内,44% 的成人糖尿病、23% 的缺血性心脏病和 7% 至 41% 的某些癌症可归因于超重和肥胖(WHO,2009)。世界上近三分之二的人口生活在超重和肥胖致死人数多于体重不足人数的国家(世卫组织,2016e)。PS: A body mass index (BMI) over 25 is considered overweight, and over 30 is obese.
Between 2000 and 2015, the prevalence of overweight among children under 5years rose from 5.1 to 6.2percent (UNICEF, WHO and World Bank, 2016). If this trend continues, by 2025 the percentage of overweight, including obese, children under five will reach 11percent, or 70million (WHO, 2014). Childhood obesity increases the risk of early onset of obesity-related health complications, which were once thought to be only problems for adults. The early occurrence of these diseases can have serious consequences on children’s future risk of non-communicable diseases (Park et al., 2012). The economic price of malnutrition is billions of dollars in lost productivity and health care costs (FAO, 2013b). By improving nutrition, particularly during a child’s first 1000 days, many public health problems can be prevented and many obstacles to sustainable development overcome (1,000 Days, 2016).
2000 - 2015年,5岁以下儿童超重率从5.1 %上升到6.2 % ( UNICEF、WHO和世界银行,2016 )。如果这一趋势继续下去,到2025年,包括肥胖在内的5岁以下儿童超重的比例将达到11 %,即7000万(世卫组织,2014年)。儿童肥胖增加了与肥胖有关的健康并发症早发的风险,这曾经被认为只是成年人的问题。这些疾病的早期发生会对儿童未来患非传染性疾病的风险产生严重后果( Park et al .,2012 )。营养不良的经济代价是数十亿美元的生产力损失和医疗保健费用( FAO,2013b )。通过改善营养,特别是在儿童最初的1 000天内,可以预防许多公共卫生问题,克服可持续发展的许多障碍( 1,000 Days,2016年)。
With the increases in food supply in recent decades, the world now produces more than enough food to satisfy the dietary needs of the entire global population. The average DES per person per day in low- and middle-income countries is around 2750kilocalories and in high-income countries it is around 3 350 kilocalories. Both these figures exceed the minimum requirement of around 1950kilocalories per person per day (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2015a, Table 1). The same applies to protein requirements.
随着近几十年来粮食供应的增加,世界现在生产的粮食足以满足整个全球人口的饮食需求。低收入和中等收入国家每人每天的平均 DES( Dietary Energy Supply ,the food available for human consumption ,膳食能量供应) 约为 2 750 大卡,高收入国家约为 3 350 大卡。这两个数字都超过了每人每天约 1 950 大卡的最低需求(粮农组织、农发基金和粮食计划署,2015a,表 1)。这同样适用于蛋白质需求。
However, adequate food availability does not automatically imply adequate food intake by all. First, inequality in incomes and other means of subsistence explain large differences in access to food and why still hundreds of millions of people are undernourished. Second, poorer households tend to face impediments to the adequate utilization of food owing to lack of access to facilities, such as food storage, cooking equipment and clean water, and to services, such as health care and basic nutrition education. Third, the dietary transition is partially reflected in improved access to more nutritious foods, including meat, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, but not necessary in the right balance. Analyses based on household surveys, as well as the trends shown above based on the FAO food balance sheets, suggest accelerated growth in consumption of meat and slower growth in consumption of fruits and vegetables. This trend, together with rapidly growing consumption of processed foods, often with excessive quantities of salt, sugar, and preservatives, has given rise to concerns over the shift towards less healthy diets and the increasing prevalence of micronutrient deficiency and overweight. 引自第85页
In most regions, the consumption of highly processed foods increased more than the consumption of fresh foods. Middle-income countries show the greatest shift toward dietary patterns based on highly processed foods (Imamura et al., 2015). There was an increase in the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in four out of seven regions, with the largest increase in North America. In all regions, consumption of processed meat has increased. In East Asia, red meat consumption has increased substantially, but it has declined in every other region. Levels of red meat consumption are similar in East Asia, Latin America, North America and Western Europe.
Vertically coordinated value chains have far-reaching implications for dietary patterns, nutrition and health :(P108)
In addition to improving the efficiency of food delivery systems, these value chains have helped improve food quality and safety, which benefits consumer health. At the same time, they have facilitated the diversification of diets among more affluent consumers, accelerating the shift from starchy staples, which are the main foods of the poor, to livestock products, fats and oils, and fruit and vegetables. More affluent consumers tend to adopt globally connected lifestyles that increase the demand for novel foods.
However, industrialized meat production processes and higher consumption of processed foods also raise concerns related to nutrition, the environment, food security and food safety. Large-scale food processing risks increasing the availability of cheaper foods that have a high content of fat, added sugar and salt (so-called ‘empty calories’). Recent studies of the links between people’s diets and their food environments, i.e. the food that is made available, affordable, convenient and desirable based on consumers’ tastes and education, have produced mixed findings. Sometimes, the wider availability of processed food leads to higher food consumption and greater dietary diversity. In other cases, low-income populations find it more difficult to adopt high-quality diets and are more likely to consume ‘empty calories’. The continuing increase in overweight, obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases worldwide is a clear indicator of this latter trend (Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, 2016). 引自第109页
Meanwhile, the food economy is becoming more responsive to growing consumer demand for specific food items, which reflects income growth, age structure, levels of urbanization and changing tastes. Increasingly, food suppliers study the evolution of food demand in order to plan food chain investments more effectively, from input supply to consumption (Timmer, 2014). Efforts to improve the efficiency of agricultural value chains, and achieve sustainable food security and nutrition, are constrained by the inequalities facing rural women. Across all developing regions, women play important roles in food production and value addition, and shoulder primary responsibility for the unpaid care of family members. Mothers usually choose what the youngest children eat, and women often have the most influence in determining what the whole family eats.
Women’s knowledge, education, social status, health and nutrition, and their control over resources are key factors that affect nutritional outcomes. Many studies show that women’s social and economic empowerment – the result of improved education or access to regular income – is one of the most relevant factors contributing to improved children’s health and nutrition (Scaling Up Nutrition, 2016; Cunningham et al., 2015). Unfortunately, the persistence of gender-based discrimination means that women do not benefit equally from agrifood value chain development. In many low-income countries, they remain trapped in the low-skilled and low-paid nodes of the food supply chain, often in casual and insecure employment (Kilic, PalaciosLopez and Goldstein, 2014).
女性的知识、教育、社会地位、健康和营养,以及她们对资源的控制是影响营养结局的关键因素。许多研究表明,女性社会经济赋权- -改善教育或获得正常收入的结果- -是促进儿童健康和营养改善的最相关因素之一( Scaling Up Nutrition,2016 );Cunningham et al .,2015 )。遗憾的是,性别歧视的持续存在意味着妇女不能平等地从农产品价值链发展中受益。在许多低收入国家,他们仍然困在食品供应链的低技能和低收入节点,经常处于随意和不安全的就业( Kilic,PalaciosLopez和Goldstein,2014 )。