question before investing

What is the range of likely future outcomes?
Which outcome do I think will occur?
What's the probability I'm right?
What does the consensus thinks?
How does my expectation differ from consensus?
How does the current price for the asset comport with the consensus view of the future, and with mine?
Is the consensus psychology that's incorporated in the price too bullish or bearish?
What will happen to the asset's price if the consensus turns out to be right, and what if I'm right?