《Thinking, Fast and Slow》的笔记-第1页
- 章节名：My Highlights
- 页码：第1页 2014-06-01 10:19:46
Speaking OfPart I1 Speaking of System 1 and System 2“He had an impression, but some of his impressions are illusions.”“This was a pure System 1 response. She reacted to the threat before she recognized it.”“This is your System 1 talking. Slow down and let your System 2 take control.”2 Speaking of Attention and Effort“I won’t try to solve this while driving. This is a pupil-dilating task. It requires mental effort!”“The law of least effort is operating here. He will think as little as possible.”“She did not forget about the meeting. She was completely focused on something else when the meeting was set and she just didn’t hear you.”“What came quickly to my mind was an intuition from System 1. I’ll have to start over and search my memory deliberately.”3 Speaking of Control“She did not have to struggle to stay on task for hours. She was in a state of flow.”“His ego was depleted after a long day of meetings. So he just turned to standard operating procedures instead of thinking through the problem.”“He didn’t bother to check whether what he said made sense. Does he usually have a lazy System 2 or was he unusually tired?”“Unfortunately, she tends to say the first thing that comes into her mind. She probably also has trouble delaying gratification. Weak System 2.”4 Speaking of Priming“The sight of all these people in uniforms does not prime creativity.”“The world makes much less sense than you think. The coherence comes mostly from the way your mind works.”“They were primed to find flaws, and this is exactly what they found.”“His System 1 constructed a story, and his System 2 believed it. “I made myself smile and I’m actually feeling better!”5 Speaking of Cognitive Ease"Let’s not dismiss their business plan just because the font makes it hard to read.”“We must be inclined to believe it because it has been repeated so often, but let’s think it through again.”“Familiarity breeds liking. This is a mere exposure effect.”“I’m in a very good mood today, and my System 2 is weaker than usual. I should be extra careful.”These findings add to the growing evidence that good mood, intuition, creativity, gullibility, and increased reliance on System 1 form a cluster. At the other pole, sadness, vigilance, suspicion, an analytic approach, and increased effort also go together.6 Speaking of Norms and Causes“When the second applicant also turned out to be an old friend of mine, I wasn’t quite as surprised. Very little repetition is needed for a new experience to feel normal!”“When we survey the reaction to these products, let’s make sure we don’t focus exclusively on the average. We should consider the entire range of normal reactions.”“She can’t accept that she was just unlucky; she needs a causal story. She will end up thinking that someone intentionally sabotaged her work.”7 Speaking of Jumping to Conclusions“She knows nothing about this person’s management skills. All she is going by is the halo effect from a good presentation.”“Let’s decorrelate errors by obtaining separate judgments on the issue before any discussion. We will get more information from independent assessments.”“They made that big decision on the basis of a good report from one consultant. WYSIATI—what you see is all there is. They did not seem to realize how little information they had.”“They didn’t want more information that might spoil their story. WYSIATI.”8 Speaking of Judgment"Evaluating people as attractive or not is a basic assessment. You do that automatically whether or not you want to, and “it influences you.”“There are circuits in the brain that evaluate dominance from the shape of the face. He looks the part for a leadership role.”“The punishment won’t feel just unless its intensity matches the crime. Just like you can match the loudness of a sound to the brightness of a light.”“This was a clear instance of a mental shotgun. He was asked whether he thought the company was financially sound, but he couldn’t forget that he likes their product.”9 “Speaking of Substitution and Heuristics“Do we still remember the question we are trying to answer? Or have we substituted an easier one?”“The question we face is whether this candidate can succeed. The question we seem to answer is whether she interviews well. Let’s not substitute.”“He likes the project, so he thinks its costs are low and its benefits are high. Nice example of the affect heuristic.”“We are using last year’s performance as a heuristic to predict the value of the firm several years from now. Is this heuristic good enough? What other information do we need?”Characteristics of System 1generates impressions, feelings, and inclinations; when endorsed by System 2 these become beliefs, attitudes, and intentions “operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary controlcan be programmed by System 2 to mobilize attention when a particular pattern is detected (search)executes skilled responses and generates skilled intuitions, after adequate trainingcreates a coherent pattern of activated ideas in associative memorylinks a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, pleasant feelings, and reduced vigilancedistinguishes the surprising from the normalinfers and invents causes and intentionsneglects ambiguity and suppresses doubtis biased to believe and confirmexaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect)focuses on existing evidence and ignores absent evidence (WYSIATI)Part II10 Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers“Yes, the studio has had three successful films since the new CEO took over. But it is too early to declare he has a hot hand.”“I won’t believe that the new trader is a genius before consulting a statistician who could estimate the likelihood of his streak being a chance event."“The sample of observations is too small to make any inferences. Let’s not follow the law of small numbers.”“I plan to keep the results of the experiment secret until we have a sufficiently large sample. Otherwise we will face pressure to reach a conclusion prematurely.”11Speaking of Anchors“The firm we want to acquire sent us their business plan, with the revenue they expect. We shouldn’t let that number influence our thinking. Set it aside.”“Plans are best-case scenarios. Let’s avoid anchoring on plans when we forecast actual outcomes. Thinking about ways the plan could go wrong is one way to do it.”“Our aim in the negotiation is to get them anchored on this number.”anchoring effect. It occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity. 12 Speaking of Availability“Because of the coincidence of two planes crashing last month, she now prefers to take the train. That’s silly. The risk hasn’t really changed; it is an availability bias.”“He underestimates the risks of indoor pollution because there are few media stories on them. That’s an availability effect. He should look at the statistics."“She has been watching too many spy movies recently, so she’s seeing conspiracies everywhere."“The CEO has had several successes in a row, so failure doesn’t come easily to her mind. The availability bias is making her overconfident.”13 Speaking of Availability Cascades“She’s raving about an innovation that has large benefits and no costs. I suspect the affect heuristic."“This is an availability cascade: a nonevent that is inflated by the media and the public until it fills our TV screens and becomes all anyone is talking about.”14 Speaking of Representativeness“The lawn is well trimmed, the receptionist looks competent, and the furniture is attractive, but this doesn’t mean it is a well-managed company. I hope the board does not go by representativeness.”“This start-up looks as if it could not fail, but the base rate of success in the industry is extremely low. How do we know this case is different?”“They keep making the same mistake: predicting rare events from weak evidence. When the evidence is weak, one should stick with the base rates.”15 Speaking of Less is More“They constructed a very complicated scenario and insisted on calling it highly probable. It is not—it is only a plausible story.”“They added a cheap gift to the expensive product, and made the whole deal less attractive. Less is more in this case.”“In most situations, a direct comparison makes people more careful and more logical. But not always. Sometimes intuition “beats logic even when the correct answer stares you in the face.”17 Speaking of Regression to Mediocrity“She says experience has taught her that criticism is more effective than praise. What she doesn’t understand is that it’s all due to regression to the mean.”“Perhaps his second interview was less impressive than the first because he was afraid of disappointing us, but more likely it was his first that was unusually good.”“Our screening procedure is good but not perfect, so we should anticipate regression. We shouldn’t be surprised that the very best candidates often fail to meet our expectations.”18 Speaking of Intuitive Predictions“That start-up achieved an outstanding proof of concept, but we shouldn’t expect them to do as well in the future. They are still a long way from the market and there is a lot of room for regression.”“Our intuitive prediction is very favorable, but it is probably too high. Let’s take into account the strength of our evidence and regress the prediction toward the mean.”“The investment may be a good idea, even if the best guess is that it will fail. Let's not say we really believe it is the next Google.”“I read one review of that brand and it was excellent. Still, that could have been a fluke. Let’s consider only the brands that have a large number of reviews and pick the one that looks best.”19 Speaking of Hindsight“The mistake appears obvious, but it is just hindsight. You could not have known in advance.”“He’s learning too much from this success story, which is too tidy. He has fallen for a narrative fallacy.”“She has no evidence for saying that the firm is badly managed. All she knows is that its stock has gone down. This is an outcome bias, part hindsight and part halo effect.”“Let’s not fall for the outcome bias. This was a stupid decision even though it worked out well.”20 Speaking of Illusory Skill“He knows that the record indicates that the development of this illness is mostly unpredictable. How can he be so confident in this case? Sounds like an illusion of validity.”“She has a coherent story that explains all she knows, and the coherence makes her feel good.”“What makes him believe that he is smarter than the market? Is this an illusion of skill?”“She is a hedgehog. She has a theory that explains everything, and it gives her the illusion that she understands the world.”“The question is not whether these experts are well trained. It is whether their world is predictable.”21 “Speaking of Judges vs. Formulas“Whenever we can replace human judgment by a formula, we should at least consider it.”“He thinks his judgments are complex and subtle, but a simple combination of scores could probably do better.”“Let’s decide in advance what weight to give to the data we have on the candidates’ past performance. Otherwise we will give too much weight to our impression from the interviews.”22 “Speaking of Expert Intuition“How much expertise does she have in this particular task? How much practice has she had?”“Does he really believe that the environment of start-ups is sufficiently regular to justify an intuition that goes against the base rates?”“She is very confident in her decision, but subjective confidence is a poor index of the accuracy of a judgment.”“Did he really have an opportunity to learn? How quick and how clear was the feedback he received on his judgments?”23 Speaking of the Outside View“He’s taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases.”“She is the victim of a planning fallacy. She’s assuming a best-case scenario, but there are too many different ways for the plan to fail, and she cannot foresee them all.”“Suppose you did not know a thing about this particular legal case, only that it involves a malpractice claim by an individual against a surgeon. What would be your baseline prediction? How many of these cases succeed in court? How many settle? What are the amounts? Is the case we are discussing stronger or weaker than similar claims?”“We are making an additional investment because we do not want to admit failure. This is an instance of the sunk-cost fallacy.”24 “Speaking of Optimism“They have an illusion of control. They seriously underestimate the obstacles.”“They seem to suffer from an acute case of competitor neglect.”“This is a case of overconfidence. They seem to believe they know more than they actually do know.”“We should conduct a premortem session. Someone may come up with a threat we have neglected.”25 Speaking of Bernoulli’s Errors“He was very happy with a $20,000 bonus three years ago, but his salary has gone up by 20% since, so he will need a higher bonus to get the same utility.”“Both candidates are willing to accept the salary we’re offering, but they won’t be equally satisfied because their reference points are different. She currently has a much higher salary.”“She’s suing him for alimony. She would actually like to settle, but he prefers to go to court. That’s not surprising—she can only gain, so she’s risk averse. He, on the other hand, faces options that are all bad, so he’d rather take the risk.”26 Speaking of Prospect Theory“He suffers from extreme loss aversion, which makes him turn down very favorable opportunities.”“Considering her vast wealth, her emotional response to trivial gains and losses makes no sense.”“He weighs losses about twice as much as gains, which is normal.”27 Speaking Of The Endowment Effect“She didn’t care which of the two offices she would get, but a day after the announcement was made, she was no longer willing to trade. Endowment effect!”“These negotiations are going nowhere because both sides find it difficult to make concessions, even when they can get something in return. Losses loom larger than gains.”“When they raised their prices, demand dried up.”“He just hates the idea of selling his house for less money than he paid for it. Loss aversion is at work.”“He is a miser, and treats any dollar he spends as a loss.28 Speaking of Losses“This reform will not pass. Those who stand to lose will fight harder than those who stand to gain.”“Each of them thinks the other’s concessions are less painful. They are both wrong, of course. It’s just the asymmetry of losses.”“They would find it easier to renegotiate the agreement if they realized the pie was actually expanding. They’re not allocating “losses; they are allocating gains.”“Rental prices around here have gone up, but our tenants don’t think it’s fair that we should raise their rent, too. They feel entitled to their current terms.”“My clients don’t resent the price hike because they know my costs have gone up, too. They accept my right to stay profitable.”29 Speaking Of The Fourfold Pattern“He is tempted to settle this frivolous claim to avoid a freak loss, however unlikely. That’s overweighting of small probabilities. Since he is likely to face many similar problems, he would be better off not yielding. “We never let our vacations hang Bima aang Bimon a last-minute deal. We’re willing to pay a lot for certainty.”“They will not cut their losses so long as there is a chance of breaking even. This is risk-seeking in the losses.”“They know the risk of a gas explosion is minuscule, but they want it mitigated. It’s a possibility effect, and they want peace of mind.”30 Speaking of Rare Events“Tsunamis are very rare even in Japan, but the image is so vivid and compelling that tourists are bound to overestimate their probability.”“It’s the familiar disaster cycle. Begin by exaggeration and overweighting, then neglect sets in.”“We shouldn’t focus on a single scenario, or we will overestimate its probability. Let’s set up specific alternatives and make the probabilities add up to 100%.”“They want people to be worried by the risk. That’s why they describe it as 1 death per 1,000. They’re counting on denominator neglect.”31 Speaking of Risk Policies“Tell her to think like a trader! You win a few, you lose a few.”“I decided to evaluate my portfolio only once a quarter. I am too loss averse to make sensible decisions in the face of daily price fluctuations.”“They never buy extended warranties. That’s their risk policy.”“Each of our executives is loss averse in his or her domain. That’s perfectly natural, but the result is that the organization is not taking enough risk.”32 Speaking of Keeping Score“He has separate mental accounts for cash and credit purchases. I constantly remind him that money is money.”“We are hanging on to that stock just to avoid closing our mental account at a loss. It’s the disposition effect.”“We discovered an excellent dish at that restaurant and we never try anything else, to avoid regret.”“The salesperson showed me the most expensive car seat and said it was the safest, and I could not bring myself to buy the cheaper model. It felt like a taboo tradeoff.33 Speaking of Reversals“The BTU units meant nothing to me until I saw how much air-conditioning units vary. Joint evaluation was essential.”34 Speaking of Frames and Reality“They will feel better about what happened if they manage to frame the outcome in terms of how much money they kept rather than how much they lost.”“Let’s reframe the problem by changing the reference point. Imagine we did not own it; how much would we think it is worth?”“Charge the loss to your mental account of ‘general revenue’—you will feel better!”“They ask you to check the box to opt out of their mailing list. Their list would shrink if they asked you to check a box to opt in!”35 Speaking of Life as a Story“He is desperately trying to protect the narrative of a life of integrity, which is endangered by the latest episode.”“The length to which he was willing to go for a one-night encounter is a sign of total duration neglect.”“You seem to be devoting your entire vacation to the construction of memories. Perhaps you should put away the camera and enjoy the moment, even if it is not very memorable?”“She is an Alzheimer’s patient. She no longer maintains a narrative of her life, but her experiencing self is still sensitive to beauty and gentleness.”36 Speaking of Experienced Well-Being“The objective of policy should be to reduce human suffering. We aim for a lower U-index in society. Dealing with depression and extreme poverty should be a priority.”“The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time. Can you find more time to do the things you enjoy doing?”“Beyond the satiation level of income, you can buy more pleasurable experiences, but you will lose some of your ability to enjoy the less expensive ones.”37 Speaking of Thinking About Life“She thought that buying a fancy car would make her happier, but it turned out to be an error of affective forecasting.”“His car broke down on the way to work this morning and he’s in a foul mood. This is not a good day to ask him about his job satisfaction!”“She looks quite cheerful most of the time, but when she is asked she says she is very unhappy. The question must make her think of her recent divorce."
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Thinking, Fast and Slow (Part I Two Systems) - Summary Part I The Two Systems Chapter...
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