"Well bought is half sold.".. we don't spend a lot of time thinking about what price we're going to be able to sell a holding for, or when, or to whom, or through what mechanism. If you've bought it cheap, eventually those questions will answer themselves.
If your estimate of intrinsic value is correct, over time an asset's price should converge with its value... one of the most important things to remember when the market acts emotionally over the short term.
What goes into the price? Underlying fundamental value, and its short-term fluctuations determined primarily - by two other factors: psychology and technicals. These are nonfundamental factors - that is, things unrelated to value - that affect the supply and demand for securities. Two examples: the forced selling that takes place when market crashes cause levered investors to receive margin calls and be sold out, and the inflows of cash to mutual funds that require portfolio managers to buy.
The discipline that is most important is .. psychology. The key is who likes the investment now and who doesn't. Future price changes will be determined by whether it comes to be liked by more people or fewer people in the future.... the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. At that point, all favorable facts and opinions are already factored into its price, and no new buyers are left to emerge. "priced for perfection,""on the pedestal of popularity," and “nothing can go wrong”. When you pay for perfection, you don't get what you expected, and the high price you pay exposes you to risk of loss when reality comes to light. This is truly one of the riskiest things.
Consider the possible routes to investment profit:
- Benefiting from a rise in the asset's intrinsic value
- Applying leverage
- Selling for more than your asset's worth
- Buying something for less than its value... the most dependent way to make money. Buying at a discoun from intrinsic value and having the asset's price move toward its value doesn't require serendipity; it just rquires that market participants wake up to reality. When the market's functioning properly, value exerts a magnetic pull on price.引自 The Relationship Between Price and Value