读过 Thinking in Bets
Part of the skill in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world. The more accurate our beliefs, the better the foundation of the bets we make. 引自 Wanna bet?As with many of our irrationalities, how we form beliefs was shaped by the evolutionary push toward efficiency rather than accuracy. Abstract belief formation (that is, belifs outside our direct experience, conveyed through language) is likely among the few things that are uniquely human, making ti relatively new in the scope of evolutionary time. 引自 Wanna bet?In poker, this belief-formation process can cost players a lot of money.引自 Wanna bet?Instead of alterning our beliefs to fit new information, we do the opposite, alterning our interpretation of that information to fit our beliefs.引自 Wanna bet?We do not simply 'react to' a happening... We behave according to what we bring to the occasion. 引自 Wanna bet?It takes on a life of its own, leading us to notice and seek out evidence confirmig our belif, rarely challenge the validity of confirming evidence, and ignore or work hard to actively discredit information contracdicting the belief. This irrational, circular information-processing pattern is called motivated reasoning. The way we process new information is driven by the belifs we hold, strengthening them. Those strengthened belifs then drive how we process further information, and so on. 引自 Wanna bet?Protecting the belife guides how we treat further information relevant to the belif. 引自 Wanna bet?We are wired to protect our belifs even when our goal is to truthseek Being smart and aware of our capacity for irrationality alone doesn't help us refrain from biased reasoning. 引自 Wanna bet?
Leaning Loop 1: Belief -> Bet -> Outcome -> Bet2 Learning Loop2: Belief ->...
a truthseeking charter: 1) focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes reward...