读过 Thinking in Bets
The tendency we all have to favor our present-self at the expense of our future-self is called temporal discounting. We are willing to take an irrationally large discount to get a reward now instead of waiting for a bigger rewared later. 引自 Adventures in Mental Time TravelMoving regreat in front of a decision can influence us to make a better decision and helps us treat ourselves after the fact. 10-10-10, in 10 minutes, in 10 months and in 10 years.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Traveltilt: 引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travelthe precommitment or predecision doesn't completely bind our hands to the mast. 引自 Adventures in Mental Time TravelWe can commit to vigilance around words, phrases, and thoughts that signal that we might be not be our most rational selves. The sample list:引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- signs of the illusion of certainty: "I know," "I knew it."引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Overconfidence: similar terms to the illusion of certainty引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Irrational outcome fielding: I can't believe how unlucky I got.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Any kind of moaning or complaining about bad luck just to off-load it, with no real point to the story other than to get sympathy.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Generalized characterizations of people meant to dismiss their ideas: insulting, pejorative characterizations of others, like "idiot" or, in poker, "donkey."引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Other violations of the Mertonian norm of universalism, shooting the message because we don't think much of the messenger. 引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Signals that we have zoomed in on a moment, out of proportion with the scope of time: "worst day ever,"引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Expressions that explicitly signal motivated reasoning, accepting or rejecting information without much evidence, like "conventional wisdom" or "if you ask anybody" or "can you prove that it's not true?"引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- The word "wrong", which deserves its own swear jar. 引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Lack of self-compassion: if we're going to be self-critical, the focus should be on the lesson and how to calibrate future decisions.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Signals we're being overly generous editors when we share a story.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Infecting our listeners with a conflict of interest, including our own conclusion or belief when asking for advice or informing the listener of the outcome before getting their input.引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel- Terms that discourage engagement of others and their opinions, including expressions of certainty and also initial phrasing inconsistent with that great lesson from improvisation引自 Adventures in Mental Time TravelWe have to take satisfaction in assessing the probabilities of different outcomes given the decisions under consideration and in executing the bet we think is best. With the constant stream of decisions and outcomes under uncertain conditions, you get used to losing a lot. 引自 Adventures in Mental Time Travel
Leaning Loop 1: Belief -> Bet -> Outcome -> Bet2 Learning Loop2: Belief ->...
a truthseeking charter: 1) focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes reward...