6 norms, surprises and causes

📍assessing normality
“When we survey the reactions to these products, let’s make sure we don’t focus exclusively on average. We should consider the entire range of normal reactions.”
“She can’t accept that she was just unlucky; she needs a causal story. She will end up thinking someone intentionally sabotaged her work.”
Causal intuition could lead people to apply such thinking inappropriately to situations that needed statistical thinking. 
• One thing that I learned in 2018 was to accept things without a causal interpretation. It was uncomfortable for me to think that “I was just unlucky”; I needed answers — but I naturally won’t get any no matter how hard I try to frame them. That because shits just happen, people aren’t always lucky, the world is largely random.
总结：
• avoid the “causal intuition” pitfall 
• The importance of surprises and norms is still not clear to me.