《Thinking, Fast and Slow》的笔记-PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASEs
- 章节名：PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASEs
- 2019-02-11 06:11:05
10 the law of small numbers
Ten operations of system 2 depended on the facts and suggestions retrieved from associative memory.
This concerns me. If I failed to make such connections into s1 then it would be quite difficult for me to retrieve it later.
“Large samples are more precise than small samples.
Small samples yields extreme results more often than large samples do.”
The first statement has a clear ring of truth, but until the second version makes intuitive sense you have not fully understand the first.
It apples to studying as well. A statement may appear true and straight forward however, it’s not until the innate reasoning becomes intuitive that I have master the meaning.
📍the law of small numbers
📍a bias of confidence over doubt
System 1 runs ahead of facts in constructing a rich image on the basis of scraps of evidence.
📍cause and chance
We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
We pay more attention to its content than its reliability.
Anchoring effect is both a slowed s2 adjustment as well as an unconscious s1 association.
you should assume that any number on the table has an anchoring effect on you, and if the stakes are high you should mobilize yourself (s2) to combat the effect.
12 the Science of Availability
We define the availability heuristic as the process of judging frequency by the ease with which instances comes to mind.”
The experience of fluent retrieval gives people a sense of availability.
You wish to estimate the size of a category or the frequency of an event, but you report an impression of the ease with which instances come to mind.
Among the basic features of s1 is its ability to set expectations and to be surprised when these expectations are violated.
S2 can set the expectation on the fly, so that an event that would normally be surprising is now almost normal.
Reliance on intuition is only in part a personality trait. Merely reminding people of a time where they had power increases their apparent trust in intuition.
13 Availability, Emotion and Risk
The affect heuristic simplifies our lives by creating a world that is much tidier than reality.
📍the public and the Expert
Availability cascade — a self sustaining chain of events, which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public panic and large scale government action.
The issue becomes politically important because it is on everyone’s mind, and the response of the political system is guided by the intensity of public sentiment. Other risks, and other ways that resources could be applied for the public good, all have faded into the background.
Pseudo-event — an event conducted fro the purpose of publicity. Instead of paying for advertising time, a media or pseudo-event seeks to use public relations to gain media and public attention.
The Love Canal media event
The Alar tale illustrates a basic limitation in the ability of our mind to deal with small risks: we either ignore them altogether or give them far too much weight — nothing in between.
Case Sunstein would seek mechanisms that insulate decision makers from public pressures, letting the allocation of resources be determined by impartial experts who have a broad view of all risks and all of the resources available to reduce them. Paul Slavic ... insulating the experts from the emotions of the public produces policies that the public will reject — an impossible situation in a democracy.
Rational or not, fear is painful and debilitating, and policy makers must endeavor to protect the public from fear, not only from real dangers.
Wow. This is very inspiring. It described the basis of the mechanism that shapes public policy and the essential of policy making — to allocate resources efficiently.
Democracy is messy. China has expert making the policies however is largely inefficient in many ways — or is it rather minor compared to what media makes it?
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