第14页 Criminal Profiling

Although much concern has been raised about the homology assumption, some recent advancements appear to have been made in terms of linking crime scene behaviors and offender characteristics. For example, a study by Goodwill, Lehmann, Beauregard, and Andrei (2016) demonstrated that links can be made between offender characteristics and crime scene behaviors when the context of the crime is taken into account and data are interpreted using a dynamic decision-making process. Specifically, they analyzed crime scene data by action phases (i.e., the steps of the crime in which different decisions must be made and actions must be taken) by performing a cluster analysis for each phase. The authors found that meaningful clusters formed across action phases that linked certain behaviors and characteristics, a result that provides tentative support for the ability to infer characteristics from behaviors. Also see similar research attempting to validate the assumptions underlying criminal profiling and identifying the links between crime scene behaviors and offender characteristics (e.g., Goodwill, Allen, & Kolarevic, 2014).
所以关键是找到正确的方法，在人的特质与行为联系起来的靠谱方法是将分析对象拆分到最小单位，而不是强奸犯都怎么样、纵火犯都怎么样、经济犯都怎么样等等假大空。