Growth-mindset

1. without revision, there can be no improvement. Bill Gates wrote"you can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measurethat will drive progress toward that goal... This may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is not done and how hard it is to get right! 
2. Laws of physics aside, there isno universal constant. Even weather, you can't say that weather is predictable or not, only that weather is predictable to some extent under some circumstances. 
3. Foresight is real, it isn't a mysterious gifts bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, ofupdating beliefs. 
4. We have all been tooquick to make up our minds and too slow to change them. If we don't examine how we make these mistakes, we will keep making them. 
5. In describinghow we think and decide, modern psychologists often deply a dual system model. System 2 is the realm of conscious thought, whilesystem 1is the realm of automatic perceptualand cognitive operation. We have no awareness of these rapid processes, but we could not function without them. System 1 always comes first. It is fast and constantly running in the background. When comes to answering a question, system 1 deliverersan quick answer, and only then system 2 get involved, starting with an examination of what system 1 decided. System 1 is designed to jump up conclusions from little evidence, but it has to run fast. But also because of this, we tend to go to the wrong hunch. System 1 follows a primitive psycho-logic:it feels right, it is. System 1 can'tconclude whatever it wants. The world must make sense, which means we must be able to explain what we see and think. And we CERTAINLY CAN, humanare creative confabulators to invent storiesthat impose coherence on the world. WE MAKE UP THINGS PRETTY GOOD. When we have no idea why, then next minute, we conjures a plausible story from whatever is at hand. It is our naturalto grab on to the first plausible explanation and happily gather supportive evidence without checking its reliability (confirmationbias). It helps us move fast, from confusion and uncertainty to a clear and condicent conclusion(that we made up). 
confirmation bias illusions are often so convincing that we bypass the advice and go with our gut. 
6. attribute substitution--bait and switch: when faced with a hard question, we often surreptitiously replace it with an easy one. But some times, those easy questions we formedare already biased, therefore the answer is not accurate. 
7. So if you have the time to think before making a big decision, do so, and be prepared to accept that what seems obviously true now may turn out to be false later. 
8. what I should have done is look at the problem from both perspectives, both the logic and psycho-logic ones. Even though, stepping outside ourselvesand really getting a different view of reality is a struggle. 
9. Most things in life involves skill and luck, in varying proportions. The mix may be almost all luckand a little skill, or almost all skill and a little luck, or it could be one of a thousand other possible variations. Slow regression is more often seen in activities dominated by skill, while faster regression is more associated with chance. 
10.Outside views+inside views+second opinion from yourself+open minded= a good forecaster 
11.An outside view, provides a base rate of a general level, how common something is within a broader class. Aninside view, helps to focuson the main issue, instead of losingin the sea of information. 
12. Second opinion, we all need time tostep back and scrutinize it. It could be a good habit to step back from ourselves, so we canjudge our own thinking and offer a different perspective--to ourselves. Since it is a good way to solve the confirmation bias problem. Research has find an conceptcalled, the crowed within, which is built on the wisdom of the crowd. When ask people to assume their initial judgement is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgement, produce a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy. 
13.It is an uncertain world, nothing is 100%.
14.Super forecaster way of solving problems: 1）unpack the question into components. Distinguish as sharply as you can between the known and unknown andleave no assumptions unscrutinized. 2)Adopt the outside view and put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays its uniqueness and treats it as a special case of a wider class of phenomena. 3) Adopt the inside view that plays up the uniqueness of the problem. 4) Explore the similarities and differences between your views and those of others--and pay special attention to prediction markets and other methods of extracting wisdom from crowds. 5) Synthesize all these different views into a single vision as acute as possible. 6) Express your judgement as precisely as you can, using a finely grained scale of probability. 
15. Under reaction: A forecast that is updatedto reflect the latest available information is likely to be closer to the truth. But sometimes it no easy, updating information sometimes means updating belief. However, belief block is holding up a lot of others. 
16.Over reaction: In other cases, too many information leads to misleading and confuse. Study has found that, those who trade more often get worse returns than those who lean toward old-fashion buy-and-hold strategies. 
17. What superforecasters do is carefullybalance old and new, captures the value in both, and puts it into her new forecast. The best way to do that is by updating often but bit by bit. A superforecaster usually put small updates with only 3.5%。These old belief plus with new information should then be formed as your new belief. 
18. When facing a challenge, some kids were turned off by the tough challenge, while others were intrigued. The key factor was mindset. Fixed-mindset kids gave up, while Growth-mindsetkids knuckled down. Even when the fixed-mineded try, they don’t get as much from the experience as those who believe they can grow. Only people with a growth mindset can learn from it and stretch their knowledge. 
19. Failuredid not mean he had reached the limit of his ability. It means he had to think hard and give it another go. Try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again. 
20. We learn new skill by doing. We improve those skills by doing more. To learn to ride a bicycle, we must try to ride one. The knowledge required to ride a bicycle can’t be fully captured in words and conveyed to others. We need these “tacit knowledge”, the sort we only get from bruising experience. 
21. Effective practice also needs to be accompanied by clear and timely feedback. There is no short cut, in order to get a promising result, you must do--over and over again, with good feedback telling you how your training is going. 
22. Stock prices do not always reflect the true value of companies, so an investor should study a company thoroughly and really understand its business, capital, and management when deciding whether it had sufficient underlying value to make an investment for the long term. 
23. Givercan improve the behavior of others, which helps everyone, including the giver. As far as you put a right and healthy attitude toward this.