Boks对《The Signal and the Noise》的笔记(2)

The Signal and the Noise
  • 书名: The Signal and the Noise
  • 作者: Nate Silver
  • 副标题: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't
  • 页数: 544
  • 出版社: Penguin Press HC, The
  • 出版年: 2012-9-27
  • CH10 The piker bubble

    80-20 rule.

    The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level.

    Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge.

    The poker game for him initially, was easy. When the poker bubble broke, the weak players were gone. Thus, “the water level has risen, and some of the sharks turned into suckers.”

    As an emperical matter, success is a result of hard work and luck, in other words a combination of signal and noise. E.g. play well and win, play well and lose, play badly and lose, and play badly and win. Therefore, dont take success for granted; focus as much as I can on self-improvement.

    2020-05-10 02:44:20 回应
  • Introduction

    Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

    2020-06-05 14:06:48 回应