Principles (10) 更多

  • Learn How to Make Decisions Effectively
    Nassim Taleb也表达过类似的观点: New is overvalued relative to great. For example, when choosing which movie to watch or what book to read, are you drawn to proven classics or the newest big thing?...
  • Be Radically Open-Minded
    I define believable people as those who have repeatedly and successfully accomplished the thing in question—who have a strong track record with at least three successes—and have great explanation...
  • Use the 5-Step Process to Get What You Want Out of Life
    Some people are good at knowing what to do on their own; they have good mental maps. Maybe they acquired them from being taught; maybe they were blessed with an especially large dose of common sens...
  • Embrace Reality and Deal with It
    这个世界并不是设计来围绕着我们自己转的: When I began to look at reality through the perspective of figuring out how it really works, instead of thinking things should be different, I realized that...
  • Returning the Boon: 2011 - 2015
    这一章大部分是自吹……
  • The Ultimate Boon: 1995 - 2010
    I knew which shifts in the economic environment caused asset classes to move around, and I knew that those relationships had remained essentially the same for hundreds of years. There were only two...
  • My Road of Trials: 1983 - 1994
    “He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass” is a saying I quoted a lot in those days. Between 1979 and 1982, I had eaten enough glass to realize that what was most importan...
  • My Abyss: 1979 - 1982
    In 1978–80 (as in 1970–71 and in 1974–75) different markets began to move in unison because they were more influenced by swings in money and credit growth than by changes in their individual sup...
  • Crossing the Threshold: 1967 - 1979
    Over the decades since, I’ve repeatedly seen policymakers deliver such assurances immediately before currency devaluations, so I learned not to believe government policymakers when they assure you...
  • Introduction
    Think for yourself to decide 1) what you want, 2) what is true, and 3) what you should do to achieve #1 in light of #2...... and do that with humility and open-mindedness so that you consider the b...

The Gray Rhino (11) 更多

  • Action: The "A-ha" Moment
    “The best advice I ever got was from a Brazilian professor I told I was working on a water project. He looked at me with wise eyes and said, ‘The only advice I can offer is words from President L...
  • Panic: Decision-Making Facing a Charging Rhino
    “In the summer of 2011, every week Greece was going down a couple of points. Investors were calling, asking should we buy or should we short?” Mediratta recalled. “We said, ‘Do nothing. It’s t...
  • Diagnosing: Right and Wrong Solutions
    Companies like MAS and Tau operate on the same principles that the legendary automaker Henry Ford did: “There is one rule for the industrialist and that is: Make the best quality of goods possible...
  • Diagnosing: Right and Wrong Solutions
    The most difficult kind of Gray Rhino—and the one to which we respond least well, and understandably so—is the Conundrum: the one to which the answer (or answers) is not completely clear. Conundr...
  • Muddling: Why We Don't Act Even When We See the Rhino
    跟福山异曲同工: Latin America’s shift from a dictatorship to a democracy took decades, and is still not complete. Nor have its economies grown as quickly as Eastern Europe’s. Popov explains this...
  • Why we miss seeing rhinos and don't get out of their way
    Fed也有过已吓呆的时候。那时我还在信贷部门,对这事完全没印象。对金融危机开始最早的记忆是2007年的某一天,同事Jack在每天午饭后例行到楼下晒太阳的时候问我:“FT上面说美国那边次贷的问题闹很大了,你听说了...
  • Denial: Why we miss seeing rhinos and don't get out of their way
    Checklist很有用 The surgeon and writer Atul Gawande has written of the power of checklists for everything from airplane cockpits to skyscraper construction sites and operating rooms; in these high-...
  • The Problem with Predictions: Unleashing Denial
    Byron Wien's 10 Surprises……看了一下,他2016年预测人民币兑美元跌到7,2017年预测人民币兑美元跌到8,今年终于不预测人民币了;2017年预测10yr UST上到4%(未遂),今年继续预测10yr UST上到4% “Don’t be a...
  • Meet the Gray Rhino
    圣女贞德的故事的takeaway.... In other words, no good deed goes unpunished. This is part of the reason too few leaders step up in time, unless it is on the off chance that they’re hearing voices, h...
  • Meet the Gray Rhino
    Behavioral economists warn of the phenomenon of groupthink, which leads groups to seek conformity, making them extremely vulnerable to ignoring information that contradicts conventional wisdom and,...
  • Preface
    灰犀牛一般是拖延症拖出来的 I launched the Gray Rhino concept in January of 2013 with a presentation at Davos, along with the Japanese author and crisis expert William Saito, who was talking about n...

眼前 (1)

  • 生在一个熄灭中的小国家
    让人想到孔明啊,虽得其主,不得其时: (子产)很可能也看出来叔向所看到的东西,担忧叔向所担忧的东西,只是叔向在晋他在郑,这个不幸的国家并不给他这样奢侈的空间,生命中某些他或者也相信的、心向往之的、源...

The Little Book of Hygge: The Danish Way to Live Well (2)

  • TEN THINGS THAT WILL MAKE YOUR HOME MORE HYGELLIG
    Wood is not enough. Danes feel the need to bring the entire forest inside. Any piece of nature you might find is likely to get the hygge greenlight. Leaves, nuts, twigs, animal skins … Basically, ...
  • THE KEY TO HAPPINESS?
    小国寡民比较容易幸福吧 Interestingly, there is wide support for the welfare state. The support stems from an awareness of the fact that the welfare model turns our collective wealth into well-being...

美国反对美国 (6) 更多

  • 第87页
    道理王教授都懂…… 神圣化的过程有一个基本的社会功能,这就是维持和传播社会的核心价值。社会的神圣化过程起着非同小可的作用。它一方面将其精神传播给社会各个层面,另一方面又吸引人们加入神圣化的过程。人们...
  • 第79页
    lol.... 美国人乐于接受创新,说得俗一点,往往善于起哄,一个新东西出来后,如不说好,就有可能被认为是不民主或没有文化修养。好象有的人看印象派的画,不敢说不好,生怕人家笑话。
  • 第67页
    罗威所谓的第一共和国,是1787年至1930年代的美国,特征是联邦机构,中央政府权力有限,州政府权力较大。第二共和国起于1930年代,这时中央政府的权力大大扩展,其中主要的权力是管制和再分配的权力。管制和再分...
  • 第50页
    独立战争把平等推到一个新的层次,后来的发展也不断推进政治平等。但经济和社会领域的平等进展缓慢,原因是人们认为这属于自由领域,自由不可侵犯,尤其是私有财产的自由权。美国人只接受条件平等,而不接受结果...
  • 第23页
    在这个繁华社会的强大诱惑下,年轻一代转向了别的价值取向。一旦年轻一代发生这种转变,任何力量都难以保证一种体制的长存不朽。对各类社会制度来说,都有这个问题。今天世界许多国家面临的问题就是年轻一代对制...
  • 第16页
    王教授那个时候就去参观过Amish聚居区了。不过书里错译成了亚美尼亚人。Amish跟亚美尼亚貌似没什么关系。
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