hedgehog对《Bad Science》的笔记(9)

hedgehog
hedgehog (靡不有初,鲜克有终)

读过 Bad Science

Bad Science
  • 书名: Bad Science
  • 作者: Ben Goldacre
  • 页数: 288
  • 出版社: Fourth Estate (GB)
  • 出版年: 2009-4
  • 第21页
    I have great respect for the manufactures of cosmetics. They are at the other end of the spectrum from the detox industry: this is a tightly regulated industry, with big money to be made from nonsense, and so we find large, well-organized teams from international biotech firms generating elegant, distracting, suggestive, but utterly defensible pseudoscience.
    2013-11-12 14:27:18 回应
  • 第57页
    Clinicians, pundits and researchers all like to say things like "There is a need for more reseach," because it sounds forward-thingking abd open-minded. In fact that's not always the case, and it's a little-known fact that this very phrase has been effectively banned fro the British Medical Journal for many years, on the grounds that it adds nothing: you may say what research is missing, on whem, how, measuring what, and why you want to do it, but the hand-waving, superficially open-minded call for "more research" is meaningless and unhelpful.
    2013-11-13 14:33:37 回应
  • 第67页
    The answer is that the placebo effect is about far more than just the pill: it is about the cultural meaning of the treatment. Pills don't simply manifest themselves in your stomach: they are given in particular ways, they take varying forms, and they are swallowed with expectations, all of which have an impact on a person's beliefs about their own health, and in turn, on outcome.
    2013-11-14 15:13:38 回应
  • 第103页
    Similarly, when you take a snapshot picture of the people who take antioxidant supplement pills, you will often find that they are healthier, or live longer: but again (although nutritionists are keen to ignore this fact), these are simple surveys of people who have already chosen to take vitamin pills. These are people are more likely to care about their health, and are different from the everyday population - and perhaps from you - in lots of other ways, far beyond their vatimin pill consumption: they may take more exercise, have more social support, smoke less, drink less, and so on.
    2013-11-15 14:48:23 回应
  • 第131页
    A dietary change probably requires a change in lifestyle, shopping habit, maybe even what's in the shops, how you use your time, it might even require that you buy some cooking equipment, how your family relates to each other, change your work style, and so on. ... The poeple in your "control group" will change their diets too: remember, they've agreed voluntarily to take part in a hugely intrusive seven-year-long project that could require massive lifestyle changes, so they may have a greater interest in health than the rest of your population.... Diet and health are suddenly much more at the forefront of their minds.
    2013-11-18 17:24:36 回应
  • 第178页
    The reality is that this vast industry of nutritionism -- and more importantly than anything, this fascinating brand of scholarship - is now penetrating, uncriticised, unoticed, to the heart of our academic system, because of our desperation to find easy answer to big problems like obesity, our collective need for quick fixes, the willingness of universities to work with industry figures across the board, the admirable desire to give students what thwy want, and the phenomenal mainsream credibility that these pseudo-academic figures have attained, in a world that has apparently forgotten the importance of critically appraising all scientific claims.
    2013-11-20 15:05:32 回应
  • 第224页
    My basic hypothesis is this: the poeple who run the media are humanities graduates with little understanding of science, who wear their ignorance as a badge of honour.
    2013-11-25 15:26:27 回应
  • 第270页
    The rarer the event in your population, the worse your test becomes, even though it is the same test. Let's now use the same test where the background HIV infection rate in the population is about one in 10,000. If we test 10,000 people, we can expect two positive blood results overall. One from the person who really is HIV positive; and the one false positive that we could expect, again, from having 10,000 HIV-negative men being test with a test that is wrong one time in 10,000..... It's only 50:50 odds on whether they really are HIV positive.
    2013-11-27 14:42:15 回应
  • 第255页
    And no matter how hard you try, sometimes thing just are very counterintuitive, especially in science. Imagine there are twenty-three people in a room. What is the chance that two of them celebrate theiry birthday on the same date? One in two. If it helps to make this feel a bit more plausible, bear in mind that you only need any two dates to coincide. With forty-seven people, the probablity increase to 0.95: that's nineteen times out of twenty! (Fifty-seven people and it's 0.99; seventy people and it's 0.999.) This is beyond your intuition: at first glance, it makes no sense at all.
    2013-11-27 14:45:59 1回应

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