这段时间读的行为的书确实有点多，包括misbehaving,Felling smart,如果再广义一些，还应该加上intellectual capital 和杰维斯的系统效应。不过这本书确实是我读的最慢的一本，因为我确实是在，一个词一个词地读...=_=(http://www.ximalaya.com/78358504/album/7726634)
ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters
Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems
Strike the right balance between inside and outside views
Strike the balance between under- and overreacting to evidence
Look for the clashing casual forces at work in each problems
Strive to distinguish as many as degrees of doubt as the problem permits but no more.
Strike the right balance between under- and over confidence ,between prudence and decisiveness.
Look for the errors behind your mistakes but beware of rearview-mirror hindsight biases.
Bring out the best in others and let others bring out the best in you.
Master the error-balancing bicycle.
Don't treat commandments as commandments.