The superforecasting program is based on a group of ordinary people who is gather by this program to forecast how things will turn out. A few points are practical to my daily working. 1. Learn from mistakes. For a long time, whenever I make an error no matter how indifferent it is, I would feel deeply embarrassed. I can feel the subtle suffusion of the blush spreading from cheeks to ears. And I would blame myself for making such mistake. To cope with this emotion, I either find excuses or just let time solve it. The whole thing is absolutely of no use when it comes another similar situation. I would make the same mistake as exactly the way I do it last time with no PROGRESS. All I get from mistakes will only be ebarrassment! This book has given me a precious lecture that I should've learn so much earlier, which is rather than stucking in the middleway of emotion, you should analyze how you make it wrong and LEARN your lessons! As the sentence quoted from this book "Failure is just life trying to move us in another direction...learn from every mistake because every experience, encounter, and particularly your mistakes are there to teach you and force you into being who you are"
2. Focusing on the actual problem. Sometimes we will do "switch and bait" unconsciously. We replace the hard part of a problem with an easy one,which can definitely help with your emotion but not the facts.
3. Wrong, Wrong, Wrong and Right Small change matters. Small fact matters. Nothing is estableshed within one night. It is not important that whether you are right or wrong at beginning. What matters is whether or not you will GROW, change, and make progress. "To get better at a certain type of forecasting, that is the type of forecasting you must do---over and over again, with good feedback telling you how your training is going, and a cheerful willingness to say, "Wow, I got that one wrong. I'd better think about why."
4. Keep score. Analyze results. To make things right, you should set several metrics to judge how good the action is.
5. Keep emtions to yourself, but not too long. Learning to disagree without being disagreeable.