Antifragile

Anti-fragile is beyond resilient. The resilient merely resists the shocks and stays the same, the anti-fragile become stronger.

一匹快马在和慢马比赛的时候更容易输掉，反而和更快的马赛跑的时候容易赢。 需要公开讲话的时候，声音稍微小点反而更能吸引群众的注意力，但这个度一定要掌握好，高低犹不及。 一帆风顺越久，当混乱发生时，伤害越大。 关注点放在你不会失去的东西上（获得的能力，快乐，知识，修养等）invest in good actions. Things can take away from us-not good deeds and acts of virtue. 好的事情往往会让你无所适从。富人的财富让他们焦虑，因为有失去的可能性 驾驭欲望，（我最近比较关注的一个想法）指的是能够将恐惧转化成谨慎，痛苦带来信息。错误中的启发，欲望中的承担 I have nothing to lose then I am antifragile. 😃 fragile 的伤害不可逆性，没什么事是匆忙并且安全的做完的。（谨记） 玩火不一定自焚，可以从伤害中获得将来的安全。Just a little bit injuries 远离中间区域。风险越小的工作可替代性越强。（此处和deep work观点一致，多数时候既想做这个又同时做那个，结果显示就是在浪费时间） 看你运动的目的是什么，如果是减脂，那么强度大周期短的会比没什么强度长期运动的效果快。不要停留在中间区域 不要去问人们想要什么，想要去哪，人们直到你提供给他们后他们才知道要什么。 有大房子的人聊天的对象也多数是有大房子的人。（鱼找鱼，虾找虾，乌龟找王八，哈哈） 选择，不是责任。主动性，被动性。 错误和尝试，从另一个角度讲，是一种排除错误的过程。 无知并不会随着年龄增长自动变得有知，除非有意识的去学习。 共产主义是不存在的，人性本恶和人性本善都是不对的，but, who cares. 大多数都知道的事情并不是很值得了解 一知半解更危险。（是因为会犯错误更容易走向错误的方向么？可不犯错误不尝试怎么知道自己到达了什么程度？） 抗脆弱，指数性非线性。 Almost everything contemporary has winner-take-all effects, which includes sources of harm and benefits. 超过需要一个理由要做的事，就别去做了。less is more 另外的理由多是自己找出来说服自己的第一种理由的。 闭上眼，想象几年以后的生活，人都会增加一些现在没有的新东西。 The more energy you put into trying to control your ideas and what you think about, the more your ideas end up controlling you Sometimes you only know about someone's character after you harm them with an error for which you are solely responsible Some respect for the past, some curiosity about the historical record, a hunger for the wisdom of the elders, and a grasp of the notion of heuristics. 对于挑衅行为要给予严厉的打击，不能同意更多😂 Dignity is worth noting unless you earn it, unless you are willing to pay a price for it. It's rather a good thing to lose argument. 保证安全感的做法在某些时候会拖你的后腿，破釜沉舟自绝后路反而会激发你无穷的力量。 Food would not have a taste if it weren't for hunger; results are meaningless without effort, joy without sadness, convictions without uncertainty, and an ethical life isn't so when stripped of personal risks.

2016-03-20 19:33:21 ve called the Black Swan problem—the impossibility of calculating the risks of consequential rare events and predicting their occurrence. Sensitivity to harm from

2016-03-20 19:33:29 volatility is tractable, more so than forecasting the event that would cause the harm. So we propose to stand our current approaches to prediction, prognostication, and risk management on their heads.

2016-03-22 18:31:57 Black Swans hijack our brains, making us feel we “sort of” or “almost” predicted them, because they are retrospectively explainable. We don’t realize the role of these Swans in life because of this illusion of predictability.

2016-03-22 19:36:19 The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about

2016-03-22 19:36:24 how frequent its occurrence—yet the

2016-03-22 21:33:28 the study of the sensitivity of things to volatility is the strange business specialty in which I spent most of

2016-03-22 21:33:34 my adult life,

2016-03-23 22:25:18 moderns try today to create inventions from situations of comfort, safety, and predictability instead of accepting the notion that “necessity really is the mother of invention.”

2016-03-23 22:26:55 Undercompensation from the absence of a stressor, inverse hormesis, absence of challenge, degrades the best of the best.

2016-03-23 22:29:02 This paradox of attention has been a little bit investigated: there is empirical evidence of the effect of “disfluency.” Mental effort moves us into higher gear, activating more vigorous and more analytical brain ma

2016-03-23 22:29:11 chinery.

2016-03-23 22:30:04 Consider our bedtime predilection for the rustle of tree leaves or the sound of the ocean: there are even electric contraptions that produce “white noise”

2016-03-23 23:44:31 Psychologists have shown the irony of the process of thought control: the more energy you put into trying to control your ideas and what you think about, the more your ideas end up controlling you.

2016-03-24 00:11:18 For the nonorganic, noncomplex, say, an object on the table, equilibrium (as traditionally defined) happens in a state of inertia. So for something organic, equilibrium (in that sense) only happens with death.

2016-03-25 03:25:59 There are hundreds of thousands of plane flights every year, and a crash in one plane does not involve others, so errors remain confined and highly epistemic—whereas globalized economic systems operate as one: errors spread and compound.

2016-03-25 03:43:06 And of course you learn from the errors of others. You may never know what type of person someone is unless they are given opportunities to violate moral or ethical codes.

2016-03-27 21:03:53 Finally, a thought. He who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has only sinned once.

2016-03-25 20:58:35 Obama’s mistake illustrates the illusion of local causal chains—that is, confusing catalysts for causes and assuming that one can know which catalyst will produce which effect.

2016-03-25 21:52:16 My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into informa

2016-03-25 21:52:21 tion, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.

2016-03-27 21:05:48 One finds similar ideas in ancestral lore: it is explained in a Yiddish proverb that says “Provide for the worst; the best can take care of itself.” This may sound like a platitude, but it is not: just observe how people tend to provide for the best and hope that the worst will take care of itself.

2016-03-26 06:32:47 The difference between a narrative and practice—the important things that cannot be easily narrated—lies mainly in optionality, the missed optionality of things. The “right thing” here is typically an antifragile payoff. And my argument is that you don’t go to school to learn optionality, but the reverse: to become blind to it.

2016-03-27 06:10:42 Now the very simple point, in fact, that allows for a detection of fragility: For the fragile, shocks bring higher harm as their intensity increases (up to a certain level).

认识论角度： 1、强韧性或复原力在无序性面前既不会受损也不会受益，而反脆弱性则会从中受益。 2、脆弱的事物喜欢安宁的环境；而反脆弱的食物则从混乱中成长；强韧的事物并不太在意环境 3、米特拉达梯式解毒法的启示：一旦被剥夺了摄取毒物的权力，我们将变得脆弱，强韧化的道路常始于 4、反脆弱性是机体和机械体之间的区别。有机体能够借助于伤害而进化。 管理角度： “黑天鹅”管理细则：自然以及类似自然的系统喜欢有机体之间存在多样性，而不是一个不朽的有机体内部存在多样性。系统中的噪声和干扰越多，优胜劣汰、适者生存的效应就越明显。试图消除波动性会让系统更容易遭受“黑天鹅”的攻击 如果说每一次飞机失事都降低了下一次事故的发生概率，那么每一家银行的崩溃却会提高下一家银行崩溃的概率。（领域依赖性）