Warren Buffett has said many times that people either get value investing in five minutes or they won't get it in five years.
看到这句话，想到两个别的说法，不完全是一个意思，但是可以结合起来看。1. 巴菲特Warren Buffett has said many times that people either get value investing in five minutes or they won't get it in five years.2. 青泽“三、四年多中国股市的不景气，打碎了无数人的梦。残酷而血腥！是不是从此中国股市没有希望了呢？这是一个大是大非的问题。很多人因为绝望而诅咒、赌气，从此远离市场。我认为，这却却很可能是一个巨大的机会。我不是个预言家，也不想在这旁征博引的证明自己的观点。 ”-------用什么理念来看待投资，是一个价值取向的问题，这个价值取向是一个大是大非的事。这个价值取向并不是完全决定于对价值投资技术上的理解，我猜这个可能和一个人的总体气质相关。所以巴菲特说，people either get value investing in five minutes or they won't get it in five years.巴菲特在The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville一文中还说，In conclusion, some of the more commercially minded among you may wonder why I am writing this article. Adding many converts to the value approach will perforce narrow the spreads between price and value. I can only tell you that the secret has been out for 50 years, ever since Ben Graham and Dave Dodd wrote Security Analysis, yet I have seen no trend toward value investing in the 35 years that I've practiced it. There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to continue that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper.做价值投资的永远就是那一小撮人吧。而且价值投资非常难做。凯恩斯在The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money第十二章The State of Long-Term Expectation中说，If the reader interjects that there must surely be large profits to be gained from the other players in the long run by a skilled individual who, unperturbed by the prevailing pastime, continues to purchase investments on the best genuine long-term expectations he can frame, he must be answered, first of all, that there are, indeed, such serious-minded individuals and that it makes a vast difference to an investment market whether or not they predominate in their influence over the game-players. But we must also add that there are several factors which jeopardise the predominance of such individuals in modern investment markets. Investment based on genuine long-term expectation is so difficult to-day as to be scarcely practicable. He who attempts it must surely lead much more laborious days and run greater risks than he who tries to guess better than the crowd how the crowd will behave; and, given equal intelligence, he may make more disastrous mistakes. There is no clear evidence from experience that the investment policy which is socially advantageous coincides with that which is most profitable. It needs more intelligence to defeat the forces of time and our ignorance of the future than to beat the gun. Moreover, life is not long enough; — human nature desires quick results, there is a peculiar zest in making money quickly, and remoter gains are discounted by the average man at a very high rate. The game of professional investment is intolerably boring and over-exacting to anyone who is entirely exempt from the gambling instinct; whilst he who has it must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll. Furthermore, an investor who proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale, if at all, with borrowed money — a further reason for the higher return from the pastime to a given stock of intelligence and resources. Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees or boards or banks. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion. If he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much mercy. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.