The problem with most psychohistories is not that they explain too little but that they explain too much. Rarely do they acknowledge the many chance factors that determine the course of a person’s life.
For example, the thinking of many financial analysts illustrates this fallacy. They routinely concoct elaborate explanations for every little fluctuation in stock market prices. But, in fact, much of this variability is simply random fluctuation. Hahaha f*cking love this line.
However, very similar probabilistic statements about behavioral trends cause widespread disbelief and are often dismissed by many people with the first appearance of a single "man-who." Most psychology instructors have witnessed a very common reaction when they discuss the evidence on certain behavioral relationships. For example, the instructor might present the fact that children's scholastic...
One reason that scientists are suspicious of claims that some person, theory, or belief system provides absolute knowledge about ultimate questions is that scientists consider questions about “ultimates” to be unanswerable. Scientists do not claim to produce perfect knowledge; the unique strength of science is not that it is an error-free process, but that it provides a way of eliminating the...
Until the public learns to treat these numerical abstractions of reality as seriously as images, public opinion will be as fickle as the latest image to flicker across the screen.(2回应)
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