1. Psychological effects do play an important role in the stock market peaks (or troughs). Irrational exuberance does exist 2. Irrational exuberance cannot be eliminated. There are some possible solutions: more effective risk management by individuals, guidance and proper interest rate policy from monetary authorities and improved information flow.
1 有用 Macmania 2014-04-12 04:10:47
听着席勒的Econ116,顺便也看了看他2001年唱空故事、楼市的书,果然和听他本人讲课一个路数,喋喋絮絮的段子了面讲道理,而自己不显示出过多的感情,学者风范之余有些《纽约客》式的冷幽默,。不过这本书不如《Animal Spirits》写得好,太贴近“唱空市场”,虽然罗列数据、新闻、历史,但不如前者对于市场中普通人的心理学、非理性总结、分析得那么深刻。
0 有用 宿命论 2014-02-10 19:06:34
四點床上驚醒,遂看完最後一點。貌似緣起緣滅就是這本書~據說席勒童鞋在Yale被學生罷課,只想說熊孩子的爸媽還真這麼厲害了,Skull & Bones…還有溜達哈佛,可見Porcellian Club那幢樓以及豬頭標誌,還有各地會所…所以非理性繁榮,這種繁榮只是對少數人而言的…人類本性只要尚存,泡沫就接著有,市場永遠是非理性的,所以我對某些市場還是持有樂觀態度,某些持有悲觀情緒…
0 有用 旧居 2009-10-27 22:34:33
数据翔实,分析精湛,这才是真正的做学问,实践学问。
0 有用 K2 2008-11-15 20:02:46
阅读希勒著作的过程,实际上就是提高自身对危机的免疫力的过程. 从房价的波动中很难看出房价的长期走势,当人们乐观时房价上涨,但房价过高时又会有很多因素迫使其下跌。
0 有用 T egg 2016-02-22 23:56:50
Behavior of all speculative markets, instability of the capitalist system
0 有用 c.s.e.h. 2011-07-23 18:12:18
一篇不含math & stats的通俗paper
0 有用 lu 2021-03-27 11:06:32
旧版也翻一下
0 有用 凡事利 2020-12-13 21:58:37
毫无新意,都是大路货观点罗列罗列
0 有用 apocalY*ptic13 2013-12-27 23:01:54
造纸选读
0 有用 目送飞鸿 2017-04-18 21:26:11
1929、1987年黑色星期一市场崩溃当天并没有什么特别的新闻。相反,起作用的是市场下跌本身,价格下跌产生了反馈环(price-to-price feedback)。
0 有用 cesc 2021-11-04 11:07:54
穷达独善其身,达则兼济天下。最后补充一句,暴打消费主义,存钱才是王道
0 有用 讲不清楚 2014-12-30 18:18:35
1. Psychological effects do play an important role in the stock market peaks (or troughs). Irrational exuberance does exist 2. Irrational exuberance cannot be eliminated. There are some possible solutions: more effective risk management by individuals, guidance and proper interest rate policy from monetary authorities and improved information flow.
0 有用 LTYoung 2018-02-12 06:52:02
后半部分有很多long run short run price movement的讨论 让我想到自己问不同公司trader他们的decision making process 哎 还是exotic/macro比较有意思
0 有用 Buqing 2016-10-11 17:09:33
If one tries too hard to be precise, one runs the risk of being so narrow as to be irrelevant.
0 有用 亲爱的Cobain 2015-06-29 20:07:20
OK,Not as well articulated as The Animal Spirits by Shiller and Akerlof