内容简介 · · · · · ·
费雪出了这本书后,利息理论似乎就无须再讨论了。好像亚里斯多德讲了三段论以后那样。人类的思想进步中,类似的转折点并不多。翻译上佳。
作者简介 · · · · · ·
Irving Fisher (1867-1947)
Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Int...
Irving Fisher (1867-1947)
Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Interest is written so clearly that graduate economics students, who still study it today, often find that they can read—and understand—half the book in one sitting. With other writings in technical economics, this is unheard of.
Although he damaged his reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depression that recovery was imminent, contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices.
Fisher called interest "an index of a community's preference for a dollar of present [income] over a dollar of future income." He labeled his theory of interest the "impatience and opportunity" theory. Interest rates, Fisher postulated, result from the interaction of two forces: the "time preference" people have for capital now, and the investment opportunity principle (that income invested now will yield greater income in the future). This reasoning sounds very much like B鰄m-Bawerk's. Indeed, Fisher's Theory of Interest was dedicated to "the memory of John Rae and of Eugen von B鰄m-Bawerk, who laid the foundations upon which I have endeavored to build." But Fisher objected to B鰄m-Bawerk's idea that roundaboutness necessarily increases production. Instead, argued Fisher, at a positive interest rate, no one would ever choose a longer period unless it were more productive. So if we look at processes selected, we do find that longer periods are more productive. But, he argued, the length of the period does not in itself contribute to productivity.
Fisher defined capital as any asset that produces a flow of income over time. A flow of income, said Fisher, was distinct from the stock of capital that generated it. Capital and income are linked by the interest rate. Specifically, wrote Fisher, the value of capital is the present value of the flow of (net) income that the asset generates. This still is how economists think about capital and income today.
Fisher also opposed conventional income taxation and favored a tax on consumption to replace it. His position followed directly from his capital theory. When people save out of current income and then use the savings to invest in capital goods that yield income later, noted Fisher, they are being taxed on the income that they used to buy the capital goods and then are being taxed later on the income that the capital generates. This, he said, is double taxation of saving, and biases the tax code against saving and in favor of consumption. Fisher's reasoning is still used by economists today in making the case for consumption taxes.
Fisher was a pioneer in the construction and use of price indexes. James Tobin of Yale has called Fisher "the greatest expert of all time on index numbers." Indeed, from 1923 to 1936, his own Index Number Institute computed price indexes from all over the world.
Fisher was also the first economist to distinguish clearly between real and nominal interest rates. He pointed out that the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate (the one we observe) minus the expected inflation rate. If the nominal interest rate is 12 percent, for example, but people expect inflation of 7 percent, then the real interest rate is only 5 percent. Again, this is still the basic understanding of modern economists.
Fisher laid out a more modern quantity theory of money (i.e., monetarism) than had been done before. He formulated his theory in terms of the Equation of Exchange, which says that MV = PT, where M equals the stock of money; V equals velocity, or how quickly money circulates in an economy; P equals the price level; and T equals the total volume of transactions. Again, modern economists still draw on this equation, although they usually use the version MV = Py, where y stands for real income.
The equation can be a very powerful tool for checking the consistency of one's thinking about the economy. Indeed, Reagan economist Beryl Sprinkel, who was Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs in 1981, used this equation to criticize his colleague David Stockman's economic forecasts. Sprinkel pointed out that the only way Stockman's assumptions about the growth of income, the inflation rate, and the growth of the money supply could prove true would be if velocity increased faster than it ever had before. As it turned out, velocity actually declined.
Irving Fisher was born in upstate New York in 1867. He gained an eclectic education at Yale, studying science and philosophy. He published poetry and works on astronomy, mechanics, and geometry. But his greatest concentration was on mathematics and economics, the latter having no academic department at Yale. Nonetheless, Fisher earned the first Ph.D. in economics ever awarded by Yale. Upon graduation he stayed at Yale for the rest of his career.
A three-year struggle with tuberculosis beginning in 1898 left Fisher with a profound interest in health and hygiene. He took up vegetarianism and exercise and wrote a national best-seller titled How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science, whose value he demonstrated by living until age eighty. He campaigned for Prohibition, peace, and eugenics. He was founder or president of numerous associations and agencies, including the Econometric Society and the American Economic Association. He was also a successful inventor. In 1925 his firm, which held the patent on his "visible card index" system, merged with its main competitor to form what later was known as Remington Rand and then Sperry Rand. Although the merger made him very wealthy, he lost a large part of his wealth in the stock market crash of 1929.
Selected Works
The Nature of Capital and Income. 1906.
The Purchasing Power of Money. 1911.
The Purchasing Power of Money, new and revised edition, 1922.
The Rate of Interest. 1907.
The Theory of Interest. 1930.
"Dollar Stabilization." Encyclopedia Britannica. vol. XXX, pp. 852-853. 1921.
目录 · · · · · ·
引论:收入与资本/货币利息与实际利息/一些常见的危险 第二篇
理论的文字说明:时间偏好(人性不耐)/利息的第一近似理论/利息的第二近似理论/投资机会原理/第二近似理论的探讨/利息的第三近似理论 第三篇
理论的数学论证:第一近似理论的几何说明/第二近似理论的几何说明/第一近似理论的公式说明/第二近似理论的公式说明/不适于数学表述的第三近似理论 第四篇
进一步的讨论:利息在经济学中的地
引论:收入与资本/货币利息与实际利息/一些常见的危险 第二篇
理论的文字说明:时间偏好(人性不耐)/利息的第一近似理论/利息的第二近似理论/投资机会原理/第二近似理论的探讨/利息的第三近似理论 第三篇
理论的数学论证:第一近似理论的几何说明/第二近似理论的几何说明/第一近似理论的公式说明/第二近似理论的公式说明/不适于数学表述的第三近似理论 第四篇
进一步的讨论:利息在经济学中的地
· · · · · · (收起)
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利息理论的书评 · · · · · · ( 全部 10 条 )
人性不耐会使投资者负多胜少
不耐是利息的核心,但是这个翻译实在是太糟糕了
这篇书评可能有关键情节透露
抛开通胀率不谈,利息其实就和不耐息息相关,有了不耐,才有了投资机会,所谓好的投资机会就是有巨大折扣的投资机会,比如说未来1000个苹果,今天就卖500个苹果的钱,相当于对折,这个折扣就是利息的本质。 不过不耐这个翻译实在是糟糕,更糟糕的是,这个词还是个重要的词,居... (展开)some comments
费雪的经济学,对人的生活的全面关怀
> 更多书评 10篇
论坛 · · · · · ·
2013年该书已经由商务印书馆再版 | 来自jumaomao | 1 回应 | 2015-02-12 15:56:53 |
当当和亚马逊都买不到 | 来自aeRofLoyD | 14 回应 | 2014-06-19 09:01:01 |
这本书的前言好玩 | 来自spiritmania | 2 回应 | 2012-05-26 11:32:17 |
我有59版的 和 99版的 | 来自钧升 | 2012-03-23 15:11:41 | |
我有此书复印本,要要的可以联系我在淘宝开个帖子给你 | 来自朝南生 | 1 回应 | 2009-10-26 22:07:56 |
这本书的其他版本 · · · · · · ( 全部4 )
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商务印书馆 (2013)9.4分 203人读过
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New York: The Macmillan Co. (1930)暂无评分 10人读过
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Pickering & Chatto Ltd (1997)暂无评分 3人读过
在哪儿借这本书 · · · · · ·
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谁读这本书? · · · · · ·
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3 有用 在深海中游弋 2013-02-15 00:37:04
翻译到位,经典中的经典,张五常教室强烈推荐之读物!
0 有用 AetDezac 2017-10-10 15:25:46
读来畅快无比
0 有用 忘了我是谁 2006-04-03 12:48:21
虽然读过,却看不太懂
0 有用 蝉 2014-03-31 19:33:39
: F032.2/4162
0 有用 许教父 2013-04-11 14:37:53
真的不会再版了
0 有用 pH-2 2023-01-30 19:40:47 北京
我所能想到的学术的最好的境界。把最幽深的话用语言表达。可说与不可说间的平衡。把学术作为志业,怎么达到呢。coursera的教授和我们推荐这本书,怀念那段时间。
0 有用 一顿十个大包子 2022-02-04 19:02:06
书是好书,但我是脑瘫,很吃力的读完了,迷迷糊糊
1 有用 左思 2021-04-09 15:21:59
记得当年费牛劲把它买到,后来就没有去看,估计看它的日子快到了。曾经读过178页。2021年4月9日终于完整读毕,这是读过的第1001本书。书中曾经读过的内容感觉读起来很过瘾。我的收获主要有:(1)这本书对于价格理论的应用非常精彩,尤其是关于利率产生及影响因素的解释。边际分析与供需分析结合很好的分析了借款和贷款的转化、利率的形成和影响。(2)这本书从文字推理、几何法、数理经济学、生活例子、经济数据多... 记得当年费牛劲把它买到,后来就没有去看,估计看它的日子快到了。曾经读过178页。2021年4月9日终于完整读毕,这是读过的第1001本书。书中曾经读过的内容感觉读起来很过瘾。我的收获主要有:(1)这本书对于价格理论的应用非常精彩,尤其是关于利率产生及影响因素的解释。边际分析与供需分析结合很好的分析了借款和贷款的转化、利率的形成和影响。(2)这本书从文字推理、几何法、数理经济学、生活例子、经济数据多角度展示了利率的相关理论。(3)费雪解释问题的策略是先分析真空状态下的利率决定问题,然后放松假设,逐步增加真实世界的内容。(4)几何法对于理解成本效益分析非常有帮助。(5)费雪花费了很多时间和金钱收集那个时代的数据,并用这些数据检验自己的理论,不知道他是不是自费收的数据, (展开)
0 有用 木馍 2021-01-21 15:59:23
较为完整的看了一遍,用买椟还珠做一个比喻是,留下主要思想,还细节论证,填充自己感受的世界。因此,需要一个过程。 `test
0 有用 玄鸟西 2020-10-28 17:30:53
精算师课程,学过