Over the past decade, the explosion of assets under management should have reduced fees via economies of scale. This increasing fee trend is nothing short of scandalous. (查看原文)
Buy only true no-load funds and annuities that do not carry fees of any type, including 12b-1 fees. 销售费 Over the past decade, the explosion of assets under management should have reduced fees via economies of scale. This increasing fee trend is nothing short of scandalous. 管理费 The story of Select Technology is emblematic of the nature of fund flows. First, they are most often contrary ind...
2018-09-13 22:491人喜欢
Buy only true no-load funds and annuities that do not carry fees of any type, including 12b-1 fees.引自 Neither Is Your Mutual Fund
销售费
Over the past decade, the explosion of assets under management should have reduced fees via economies of scale. This increasing fee trend is nothing short of scandalous.引自 Neither Is Your Mutual Fund
管理费
The story of Select Technology is emblematic of the nature of fund flows. First, they are most often contrary indicators—funds in high-performing sectors of the market tend to attract great piles of assets. In industry parlance, this is known as “hot money”: assets thrown by naïve investors at high past performance. It is more often than not a sign that the top is near. And even if it isn’t, it certainly serves as a drag on the performance of the funds, which are faced with deploying a large amount of capital in a fixed number of existing company shares.
Second, and most important, it highlights the conflict of interest between the investors and the fund company. Just as the brokerage firms exist to make clients trade as much as possible, the fund companies exist for one purpose: to collect assets, no matter how poorly their funds subsequently perform.引自 Neither Is Your Mutual Fund
追涨杀跌，投资者与基金公司利益冲突
CHAPTER 10 SUMMARY
1. Never, ever, pay a load on a mutual fund or annuity. And never pay an ongoing 12b-1 fee for a mutual fund or excessive annuity fees.
2. Do not chase the performance of active managers. Not only does past performance not predict future manager performance, but excellent performance leads to the rapid accumulation of assets, which increases impact costs and reduces future return.
3. Be cognizant of the corporate structure and culture of your fund company. To whom do its profits flow? Is it an investment firm or a marketing firm? 引自 Neither Is Your Mutual Fund
Pillar One: Investment Theory • Risk and return are inextricably enmeshed. • It is relatively easy to estimate the long-term return of a stock market simply by adding its long-term per-share earnings growth to its dividend yield. • The market is brutally efficient and can be thought of as being smarter than even its wisest individual participants. • It is not possible to predict wha...
2018-09-17 12:12
Pillar One: Investment Theory
• Risk and return are inextricably enmeshed.
• It is relatively easy to estimate the long-term return of a stock market simply by adding its long-term per-share earnings growth to its dividend yield.
• The market is brutally efficient and can be thought of as being smarter than even its wisest individual participants.
• It is not possible to predict what portfolio compositions will perform best in the future.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Two: Investment History
• You simply cannot learn enough about this topic.
• Be aware that the markets make regular trips to the loony bin in both directions.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Three: Investment Psychology
• You are your own worst enemy.
• If you are invested in the same assets as your neighbors and friends, it is likely that you will experience low returns.
• Try to ignore the last five or ten years of investment returns and focus on the longer-term data as best you can.
• Resist the human temptation to imagine patterns where there are none.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Four: Investment Business
• The stockbroker services his clients in the same way that Bonnie and Clyde serviced banks.
• The primary business of most mutual-fund companies is collecting assets, not managing money.
• Ninety-nine percent of what you read about investing in magazines and newspapers, and 100% of what you hear on television is worse than worthless.引自 A Final Word
What Have We Learned from the Meltdown?
What, then, have we learned since 2002? For the most part, the recent turmoil has reinforced the themes emphasized in this book:
• Costs still matter.
• Diversification still works.
• Risk tolerance should still not be overestimated.
• The current investment conventional wisdom should still be avoided.引自 A Final WordNevertheless, a few things really are different this time:
• Short-term interest rates are very low; money market funds and Treasury bills now offer near-zero yields.
• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun to eclipse traditional open-end mutual funds.
• The most frequently traded and highest-quality corporate and municipal bonds proved to be remarkably illiquid in the teeth of the crisis, probably even more so than during the Great Depression. (In plain English, just when you most needed to sell them to raise cash for living expenses or to scoop up stocks on the cheap, you could not do so without taking a significant haircut.)引自 A Final WordWhat’s going on here? In my opinion, three factors contribute to the “good economy/bad market” phenomenon.
First, just as the prices of the stocks of poorly performing companies must fall to the point where they will entice investors with higher future returns, the same happens at the country level. Like unglamorous stocks, unglamorous stock markets must offer higher returns to attract buyers.
Second, both new and existing companies are constantly raising capital by issuing new shares, which dilutes the pool of existing shares. In many foreign countries, particularly in Asia, the rate of new share issuance is particularly high. This reduces per-share earnings and dividends, which in turn erodes overall stock returns.
Third, in many developing markets, governments do not protect shareholders from the rapacity of management as well as they do in nations with more established legal systems. In other words, in these countries, management and controlling shareholders find it disturbingly easy to loot a company.引自 A Final Word
CHAPTER 14 SUMMARY 1. Only if you are an experienced investor who already has significant stock exposure should you switch rapidly from your current investment plan to one that is index/asset-class based. 2. If you are a relatively inexperienced investor or do not have significant stock exposure, you should build it up slowly using a value averaging approach. 3. Value averaging is a superb meth...
2018-09-16 22:56
CHAPTER 14 SUMMARY
1. Only if you are an experienced investor who already has significant stock exposure should you switch rapidly from your current investment plan to one that is index/asset-class based.
2. If you are a relatively inexperienced investor or do not have significant stock exposure, you should build it up slowly using a value averaging approach.
3. Value averaging is a superb method of building up an equity position over time. This technique combines dollar cost averaging and rebalancing. Asset allocation in retirement is the mirror image of value averaging—you are rebalancing with withdrawals.
4. Rebalance your sheltered accounts once every few years.
5. Do not actively rebalance your taxable accounts except with mandatory withdrawals, distributions, and new savings.
6. Rebalancing provides many benefits, including higher return and lower risk. But its biggest reward is that it keeps you in “good financial shape” by helping maintain a healthy disdain for conventional financial wisdom.引自 Getting Started, Keeping It Going
domestic stock To summarize, the five major domestic asset classes you should use are: • Large Market • Small Market • Large Value • Small Value • REITs foreign stock you can divvy things up into the three main regions—Pacific (mainly Japan), Europe, and emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and the like). demostic bond The overriding principle of bo...
2018-09-16 21:30
domestic stock
To summarize, the five major domestic asset classes you should use are:
• Large Market
• Small Market
• Large Value
• Small Value
• REITs引自 Defining your Mix
foreign stock
you can divvy things up into the three main regions—Pacific (mainly Japan), Europe, and emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and the like).引自 Defining your Mix
demostic bond
The overriding principle of bond investment is to keep it short.
The stock portion of your portfolio is the place to take risk, not the bond portion, where the purpose is to shelter you from market downturns and provide ready liquidity. The curve is steepest in the first year or two. For the most part, then, you should keep the maturity of your bond portfolio between one and five years.引自 Defining your Mix
CHAPTER 13 SUMMARY
1. The major stock asset classes you should own are domestic, foreign, and REITs. You may further break the domestic portion into the “four corners”: large market, small market, large value, and small value.
2. Your overall stock/bond allocation is determined by your time horizon, risk tolerance, and tax structure. Since stock and bond returns may be quite similar in the future, you should hold at least 20% in bonds, no matter how risk tolerant you think you are.
3. The stock and bond asset classes you employ are primarily dictated by the percentage of your portfolio that is tax-sheltered.
4. The easiest asset structures to design are those where more than half of assets are tax-sheltered.
5. If you have less than 50% of your assets in sheltered vehicles, you should place value stocks and REITs in them. If you have room left over, you should break your foreign assets into regions (European, Pacific, and emerging markets) to benefit from rebalancing.
6. The present value of your Social Security and fixed pension payments should be factored into your asset allocation.引自 Defining your Mix
The Fairy Tale 童话：现在很多人认为对于普通大众来说，股票是最好的长期投资手段。 实际上，股票的长期高收益： 1. 忽略了税收、手续费 2. 幸存者偏差 survivorship bias 3. 特殊的时间段：美国1871年（内战结束后6年）工业股票只有4倍PE 4. 风险：大萧条 -80%， 1973-1974 -50%（减去通货膨胀率）， 1987年10月19日 -22% The popular conceit of every bull market is that the public has bought into the value of long-te...
The popular conceit of every bull market is that the public has bought into the value of long-term investing and will never sell their stocks simply because of market fluctuation. And time after time, the investing public loses heart after the inevitable punishing declines that stock markets periodically dish out, and the cycle begins anew.引自 No Guts, No Glory
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Risk and Return Throughout the Centuries
This is not a trivial issue. At a very early stage in history we are encountering “survivorship bias”—the fact that only the best results tend to show up in the history books. In the twentieth century, for example, investors in the U.S., Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland did handsomely because they went largely untouched by the military and political disasters that befell most of the rest of the planet. Investors in tumultuous Germany, Japan, Argentina, and India were not so lucky; they obtained far smaller rewards.
Thus, it is highly misleading to rely on the investment performance of history’s most successful nations and empires as indicative of your own future returns.引自 No Guts, No Glory
At first glance, it might appear that the above list of winners and losers contradicts the relationship between risk and return. This is an excellent example of “hindsight bias”; in 1913 it was by no means obvious that the U.S., Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland would have the highest returns, and that Germany, Japan, Argentina, and India, the lowest. Going back further, in 1650 France and Spain were the mightiest economic and military powers in Europe, and England an impoverished upstart torn by civil war.引自 No Guts, No Glory
The tradeoff between the variability of bill payouts and the interest-rate risk of consols reverses during the twentieth century. With the abandonment of the gold standard after World War I, and the consequent inflationary explosion, the modern investor now demands a higher return from long-term bonds and annuities than from bills. This is because bonds and annuities risk serious damage from depreciating money (inflation). Thus, in recent years, long-term rates are usually higher than short-term rates, since investors need to be compensated for bearing the risk of inflation-caused damage to long-term bonds.引自 No Guts, No Glory
第一次世界大战之后，各国放弃金本位制度，通货膨胀对长期债券的影响。
This is as it should be: stability and prosperity imply high asset prices, which, because of the inverse relation between yields and prices, result in low future returns. Conversely, the highest returns are obtained by shouldering prudent risk when things look the bleakest, a theme we shall return to repeatedly.引自 No Guts, No Glory
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Bond Returns in the Twentieth Century
But the key point is this: bond returns in the twentieth century should not be used to predict future bond returns. The past few pages have hopefully more than adequately described bond risks. The monetary shocks of the twentieth century are among the most severe in recorded economic history, and it is more likely that inflation-adjusted bond returns going forward will be closer to the 3% to 4% rate of the previous centuries, than to the near-zero rate of the last ninety years.引自 No Guts, No Glory
作者的结论，认为今后债券的收益在通胀率调整后的3-4%。
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The Long-Term History of Stock Returns
At this point, it’s important to clarify the difference between bonds and stocks. A bond is simply a loan. Most often, bonds have a sharply limited upside: the best that you can do is collect your interest payments and principal at maturity. A share of stock, on the other hand, represents a claim on all of the future earnings of the company. As such, its upside is potentially unlimited.
This is not to say that stocks are always superior to bonds. Although stocks often have higher returns because of their unlimited upside potential and inflation protection, there are times when bonds shine.引自 No Guts, No Glory
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Stocks, Bonds, and Bills in the Twentieth Century
Figure 1-7 summarizes the returns of U.S. stocks, long-term Treasury bonds, and Treasury bills since 1900. Its message should not surprise you by this point—stocks have the highest returns (9.89% annualized), followed by bonds (4.85% annualized), with “safe” bills (3.86% annualized), bringing up the rear. All of these returns are “nominal,” that is, they do not take inflation into account, which, during the period, averaged 3.6%. So the “real,” or inflation-adjusted, returns were about 6% for stocks, 1% for bonds, and zero for bills.引自 No Guts, No Glory
1900年到2000年，通货膨胀率调整后的股票收益6%，长期债券1%，短期债券0%。
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Risk—The Second Dimension
Obsession with the short term is ingrained in human nature; the impulse is impossible to ignore.
High investment returns cannot be earned without taking substantial risk. Safe investments produce low returns.引自 No Guts, No Glory
审视风险的时间视角——短期视角、长期视角
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Stock Returns Outside the U.S.
The moral here is that because the most successful societies have the highest past stock returns, they become the biggest stock markets and are considered the most “typical.” Looking at the winners, we tend to get a distorted view of stock returns. It helps to recall that, three centuries ago, France had the world’s largest economy and just a century-and-a-half ago, that distinction belonged to England.引自 No Guts, No Glory
MSCI EAFE（Europe, Australasia, and the Far East）21国指数和标普500指数收益率差不多（1969-2000年）。
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Size Matters
Note how small stocks have had higher returns than larger stocks, but that they also have higher risks.引自 No Guts, No Glory
市值因子，长期数据表明小盘股收益高于大盘股，同时风险也较高
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Company Quality and Stock Return
Good companies are generally bad stocks, and bad companies are generally good stocks.
Human beings are profoundly social creatures. Just as people want to own the most popular fashions, so too do they want to own the latest stocks. Owning a portfolio of value stocks is the equivalent of wearing a Nehru jacket over a pair of bell-bottom trousers.引自 No Guts, No Glory
价值因子，长期数据表明价值股收益高于成长股
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Summing Up: The Historical Record on Risk/Return
1.The history of the stock and bond markets shows that risk and reward are inextricably intertwined. Do not expect high returns without high risk. Do not expect safety without correspondingly low returns. Further, when the political and economic outlook is the brightest, returns are the lowest. And it is when things look the darkest that returns are the highest.
2.The longer a risky asset is held, the less the chance of a loss.
3. Be especially wary of data demonstrating the superior long-term performance of U.S. stocks. For most of its history, the U.S. was a very risky place to invest, and its high investment returns reflect that. Now that the U.S. seems to be more of a “sure thing,” prices have risen, and future investment returns will necessarily be lower.引自 No Guts, No Glory
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Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace
The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages; or he could decide, to couple the security of his fortunes with the good faith of the townspeople of any substantial municipality in any continent that fancy or information might recommend. He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality, could dispatch his servant to the neighboring office of a bank for such supply of the precious metals as might seem convenient, and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters, without knowledge of their religion, language, or customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person, and would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much surprised at the least interference. But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal,certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable. The projects and politics of militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of monopolies, restrictions, and exclusion, which were to play the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper, and appeared to exercise almost no influence at all on the ordinary course of social and economic life, the internationalization of which was nearly complete in practice.引自 No Guts, No Glory
1. 欧文费雪DDM（discounted dividend model）模型 以收入现金流（a stream of income）来区分投资（investment）和投机(speculation)。 金钱的时间价值： Human beings prefer present consumption to future consumption.That is, a dollar of income next year is worth less to us than a dollar today, and a dollar in thirty yeas, a great deal less than a dollar today. 折现需要考虑的4件事情： 1. The number of ye...
2018-08-25 17:54
1. 欧文费雪DDM（discounted dividend model）模型
以收入现金流（a stream of income）来区分投资（investment）和投机(speculation)。
金钱的时间价值：
Human beings prefer present consumption to future consumption.That is, a dollar of income next year is worth less to us than a dollar today, and a dollar in thirty yeas, a great deal less than a dollar today.引自 Measuring the Beast
折现需要考虑的4件事情：
1. The number of years you have to wait
2. The rate of inflation
3. The "impatience" of society for future consumpiton (实际利率= 名义利率3 - 通货膨胀率2)
1. First and foremost, because it provides an intuitive way to think about the value of a security. A stock or bond is not an abstract piece of paper that has a randomly fluctuating value; it is a claim on real future income and assets.
2.market. At the height of the tech madness in April 2000, the entire Nasdaq market sold at approximately 100 times earnings. Applying the DDM to it revealed that this implied either a ridiculously high earnings growth rate or a low expected return. The latter seemed far more plausible to serious observers, and unfortunately, this is eventually what happened.
3.Third, and most important, the real beauty of the above formulas is that they can be rearranged to calculate the market’s expected return, producing an equation that is at once stunningly simple and powerful:引自 Measuring the Beast
One exception to this is the case of companies that are buying back their shares. A company that has grown its earnings by 5% per year and annually buys back 5% of its outstanding shares will appreciate by 10% per year, in the long term. The opposite is true of companies that issue new stock. Averaged over the whole U.S. market, these two factors tend to cancel each other out.
What about bonds? The expected return of a long-term bond is simply its “coupon,” that is its interest payments. (For a bond, the second number in the Gordon Equation, dividend growth, is zero. In almost all cases, a bond’s interest does not grow.)引自 Measuring the Beast
债券的长期收益
As you might expect, the unexcellent companies were considerably cheaper than the excellent companies. Most small investors naturally assume that good companies are good stocks, when the opposite is usually true. Psychologists refer to this sort of logical error as “representativeness.”引自 Measuring the Beast
The key point is this: if public confidence remains depressed, prices will remain depressed, which will increase subsequent returns. And if confidence returns, prices will rise and subsequent returns will be lower.
Human beings are quintessentially social creatures. In most of our endeavors, this serves us well. But in the investment arena, our social instincts are poison.引自 Measuring the Beast
1. The ability to estimate the long-term future returns of the major asset classes is perhaps the most important investment skill that an individual can possess.
2. A stock or bond is worth only the future income it produces. This income stream must be reduced in value, or “discounted,” to the present, to reflect the fact that it is worth less than currently received income.
3. The rate at which that income is discounted is inversely related to the asset’s value; a high discount rate (DR) lowers the asset’s value.
4. The DR is the same as the asset’s expected return; it is determined by the asset’s perceived risk. The higher the risk, the higher the DR/expected return.
5. In the long term, the asset’s DR/expected return is approximately the sum of the dividend yield and the growth rate. The current high price and low dividend rate of stocks suggest that they will have much lower returns in the future than they have had in the past.
6. The above considerations pertain only to long-term returns (more than 20 years). Over shorter periods, asset returns are almost exclusively related to speculative factors and cannot be predicted.
7. The methods we discussed in this chapter suggest that the returns of stocks and bonds will be similar over the coming decades. This means that even the most aggressive investors should not have more than 80% of their savings in stocks.引自 Measuring the Beast
efficient market hypothesis But why should stock prices behave randomly? Because all publicly available information, and most privately available information, is already factored into their prices. 有效市场假说 Today, almost all index funds are “cap weighted.” This means that if the value of a stock doubles or falls by half, its proportional contribution in the index does as well, so it is no...
2018-09-03 22:12
efficient market hypothesis
But why should stock prices behave randomly? Because all publicly available information, and most privately available information, is already factored into their prices.引自 The Market is smarter than you are
有效市场假说
Today, almost all index funds are “cap weighted.” This means that if the value of a stock doubles or falls by half, its proportional contribution in the index does as well, so it is not necessary to buy or sell any to keep things in balance. Thus, as long as the stocks remain in the index, it is not necessary to buy or sell stocks because of changes in market value.引自 The Market is smarter than you are
为什么市值权重的原因
There’s another facet to this as well: Dunn’s Law, a phenomenon that affects index funds. Dunn’s Law states that when an index does well (that is, it does better than other asset classes), indexing that particular asset class does very well compared to actively managed funds. For example, in each of the years between 1994 and 1998, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ranked in the top quarter in its peer group of funds—the so-called “large blend” category. But in 2000, it dropped into the lower half of the category. This was largely because the S&P 500 dramatically outperformed all other indexes from 1994 to 1998, but was the worst of the indexes in 2000.引自 The Market is smarter than you are
Dunn’s Law
For the taxable investor, indexing means never having to pay the tax and investment consequences of a bad manager.引自 The Market is smarter than you are
资本利得税对收益的影响
Chapter 3 SUMMARY
1. There is almost no evidence of stock-picking skill among professional money managers; from year to year, manager relative performance is nearly random.
2. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market.
3. The gross (before expenses) return of the average money manager is the market return.
4. The expected net (after expenses) return of a money manager is the market return minus expenses.
5. The most reliable way of obtaining a satisfying return is to index (own the whole market).引自 The Market is smarter than you are
Step One : Risky Assets, Riskless Assets 股票和短期债券的配置比例根据投资者自身的风险偏好来决定 Step Two: Defining the Global Stock Mix 从分散风险的角度配置国外股票 Step Three: Size and Value 规模因子（小市值股）和价值因子（价值股） Step Four:Sectors REITs（real estate investment trusts） 和贵金属投资 CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY 1. Past portfolio performance is only weakly predictive of future portfolio ...
2018-09-06 19:06
Step One : Risky Assets, Riskless Assets
股票和短期债券的配置比例根据投资者自身的风险偏好来决定
Step Two: Defining the Global Stock Mix
从分散风险的角度配置国外股票
Step Three: Size and Value
规模因子（小市值股）和价值因子（价值股）
Step Four:Sectors
REITs（real estate investment trusts） 和贵金属投资
CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY
1. Past portfolio performance is only weakly predictive of future portfolio behavior. It is a mistake to design your portfolio on the basis of the past decade or two.
2. Your exact asset allocation is a function of your tolerance for risk, complexity, and tracking error.
3. The most important asset allocation decision revolves around the overall split between risky assets (stocks) and riskless assets (short-term bonds, bills, CDs, and money market funds).
4. The primary diversifying stock assets are foreign equity and REITs. The former should be less than 40% of your stock holdings, the latter less than 15%.
5. Exposure to small stocks, value stocks, and precious metals stocks is worthwhile, but not essential.引自 The perfect portfolio
Pillar One: Investment Theory • Risk and return are inextricably enmeshed. • It is relatively easy to estimate the long-term return of a stock market simply by adding its long-term per-share earnings growth to its dividend yield. • The market is brutally efficient and can be thought of as being smarter than even its wisest individual participants. • It is not possible to predict wha...
2018-09-17 12:12
Pillar One: Investment Theory
• Risk and return are inextricably enmeshed.
• It is relatively easy to estimate the long-term return of a stock market simply by adding its long-term per-share earnings growth to its dividend yield.
• The market is brutally efficient and can be thought of as being smarter than even its wisest individual participants.
• It is not possible to predict what portfolio compositions will perform best in the future.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Two: Investment History
• You simply cannot learn enough about this topic.
• Be aware that the markets make regular trips to the loony bin in both directions.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Three: Investment Psychology
• You are your own worst enemy.
• If you are invested in the same assets as your neighbors and friends, it is likely that you will experience low returns.
• Try to ignore the last five or ten years of investment returns and focus on the longer-term data as best you can.
• Resist the human temptation to imagine patterns where there are none.引自 A Final Word
Pillar Four: Investment Business
• The stockbroker services his clients in the same way that Bonnie and Clyde serviced banks.
• The primary business of most mutual-fund companies is collecting assets, not managing money.
• Ninety-nine percent of what you read about investing in magazines and newspapers, and 100% of what you hear on television is worse than worthless.引自 A Final Word
What Have We Learned from the Meltdown?
What, then, have we learned since 2002? For the most part, the recent turmoil has reinforced the themes emphasized in this book:
• Costs still matter.
• Diversification still works.
• Risk tolerance should still not be overestimated.
• The current investment conventional wisdom should still be avoided.引自 A Final WordNevertheless, a few things really are different this time:
• Short-term interest rates are very low; money market funds and Treasury bills now offer near-zero yields.
• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun to eclipse traditional open-end mutual funds.
• The most frequently traded and highest-quality corporate and municipal bonds proved to be remarkably illiquid in the teeth of the crisis, probably even more so than during the Great Depression. (In plain English, just when you most needed to sell them to raise cash for living expenses or to scoop up stocks on the cheap, you could not do so without taking a significant haircut.)引自 A Final WordWhat’s going on here? In my opinion, three factors contribute to the “good economy/bad market” phenomenon.
First, just as the prices of the stocks of poorly performing companies must fall to the point where they will entice investors with higher future returns, the same happens at the country level. Like unglamorous stocks, unglamorous stock markets must offer higher returns to attract buyers.
Second, both new and existing companies are constantly raising capital by issuing new shares, which dilutes the pool of existing shares. In many foreign countries, particularly in Asia, the rate of new share issuance is particularly high. This reduces per-share earnings and dividends, which in turn erodes overall stock returns.
Third, in many developing markets, governments do not protect shareholders from the rapacity of management as well as they do in nations with more established legal systems. In other words, in these countries, management and controlling shareholders find it disturbingly easy to loot a company.引自 A Final Word
CHAPTER 14 SUMMARY 1. Only if you are an experienced investor who already has significant stock exposure should you switch rapidly from your current investment plan to one that is index/asset-class based. 2. If you are a relatively inexperienced investor or do not have significant stock exposure, you should build it up slowly using a value averaging approach. 3. Value averaging is a superb meth...
2018-09-16 22:56
CHAPTER 14 SUMMARY
1. Only if you are an experienced investor who already has significant stock exposure should you switch rapidly from your current investment plan to one that is index/asset-class based.
2. If you are a relatively inexperienced investor or do not have significant stock exposure, you should build it up slowly using a value averaging approach.
3. Value averaging is a superb method of building up an equity position over time. This technique combines dollar cost averaging and rebalancing. Asset allocation in retirement is the mirror image of value averaging—you are rebalancing with withdrawals.
4. Rebalance your sheltered accounts once every few years.
5. Do not actively rebalance your taxable accounts except with mandatory withdrawals, distributions, and new savings.
6. Rebalancing provides many benefits, including higher return and lower risk. But its biggest reward is that it keeps you in “good financial shape” by helping maintain a healthy disdain for conventional financial wisdom.引自 Getting Started, Keeping It Going
domestic stock To summarize, the five major domestic asset classes you should use are: • Large Market • Small Market • Large Value • Small Value • REITs foreign stock you can divvy things up into the three main regions—Pacific (mainly Japan), Europe, and emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and the like). demostic bond The overriding principle of bo...
2018-09-16 21:30
domestic stock
To summarize, the five major domestic asset classes you should use are:
• Large Market
• Small Market
• Large Value
• Small Value
• REITs引自 Defining your Mix
foreign stock
you can divvy things up into the three main regions—Pacific (mainly Japan), Europe, and emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and the like).引自 Defining your Mix
demostic bond
The overriding principle of bond investment is to keep it short.
The stock portion of your portfolio is the place to take risk, not the bond portion, where the purpose is to shelter you from market downturns and provide ready liquidity. The curve is steepest in the first year or two. For the most part, then, you should keep the maturity of your bond portfolio between one and five years.引自 Defining your Mix
CHAPTER 13 SUMMARY
1. The major stock asset classes you should own are domestic, foreign, and REITs. You may further break the domestic portion into the “four corners”: large market, small market, large value, and small value.
2. Your overall stock/bond allocation is determined by your time horizon, risk tolerance, and tax structure. Since stock and bond returns may be quite similar in the future, you should hold at least 20% in bonds, no matter how risk tolerant you think you are.
3. The stock and bond asset classes you employ are primarily dictated by the percentage of your portfolio that is tax-sheltered.
4. The easiest asset structures to design are those where more than half of assets are tax-sheltered.
5. If you have less than 50% of your assets in sheltered vehicles, you should place value stocks and REITs in them. If you have room left over, you should break your foreign assets into regions (European, Pacific, and emerging markets) to benefit from rebalancing.
6. The present value of your Social Security and fixed pension payments should be factored into your asset allocation.引自 Defining your Mix
The easiest way to get rich is to spend as little as possible. Emergencies. This falls under the mantra of the financial planner: “five years, five years, five years.” That is, you should not put any money at risk that will be needed within five years. In addition, you should have at least six months of living expenses on hand in safe liquid assets—short-term bonds, CDs, money market, checki...
2018-09-15 00:53
The easiest way to get rich is to spend as little as possible.引自第12页
Emergencies.
This falls under the mantra of the financial planner: “five years, five years, five years.” That is, you should not put any money at risk that will be needed within five years. In addition, you should have at least six months of living expenses on hand in safe liquid assets—short-term bonds, CDs, money market, checking, and savings accounts. This doesn’t mean that you need a separate account for this purpose—it can be part of your overall asset allocation.引自第12页
House savings.
Since you are unlikely to be saving for a house for much more than five years, you should also place this money into short-term bonds, CDs, and money market accounts. And, of course, it should be held in a taxable account.引自第12页
College savings.
With some trepidation I’d recommend placing a maximum of 30% to 40% of your child’s college fund in stocks, then begin to shift that into bonds as matriculation approaches. When the college expenses come due, you can sell the residual stocks for tuition in the good years and sell the bonds in the bad years.引自第12页
CHAPTER 12 SUMMARY
1. Manage all of your assets—personal savings, retirement accounts, emergency money, college accounts, and house savings—as one portfolio.
2. You or your spouse may live a lot longer than you think. You should plan on spending, at maximum, the expected real return of your portfolio each year—i.e., 3% to 4% of its value.
3. Even this assumption may not be conservative enough. Should you experience a prolonged period of poor returns early in your retirement, you may run out of money before the market can rebound.
4. You cannot start saving early enough. Most workers who begin their retirement savings after age 40 will find it impossible to retire when they want to.
5. You cannot save enough. The most successful prescription for a successful retirement is to get into the habit of curbing your material desires. Now.
6. Do not invest any money in stocks that you will need in less than five years.
7. Have available at least six months of living expenses in safe investment vehicles in a taxable account.引自第12页
KINO
中国人民大学出版社2014版
1 有用 庄常飞 2011-08-06
意想不到的好，如同亚马逊某人的评论一样，绝对是经典，把之前很多知道但不系统的知识综合了起来，真是值得“借鉴”啊
0 有用 Z 2019-08-16
William Bernstein出品，必属精品。
0 有用 ACMing 2013-06-18
已读过60%
0 有用 Kevin Lee 2018-09-17
从理论、历史、心理、投资业四个角度阐述个人投资者的投资实务，诚如本书作者所言，读完这本书你基本上就比市面上大多数股票经纪人强多了。
0 有用 香葱面包 2018-05-22
如此经典的书，我却这么晚才读到。
0 有用 Z 2019-08-16
William Bernstein出品，必属精品。
0 有用 Kevin Lee 2018-09-17
从理论、历史、心理、投资业四个角度阐述个人投资者的投资实务，诚如本书作者所言，读完这本书你基本上就比市面上大多数股票经纪人强多了。
0 有用 蛋吉吉 2018-09-09
入门，个人理财型书籍
0 有用 Hoxx 2018-07-16
浓缩版的CFA啊，the country club syndrome 简直太精辟
0 有用 00 2018-07-15
投资入门的经典，不过年头有点久，跟阿蒙讨论的结果是书里的观点似乎有点过时了…