"One of the ten best investment books of all time." ("The Washington Post"). The stock-investing classic-updated to help you win consistently in the chaotic, post-meltdown global economy Now in its fifth edition, "Stocks for the Long Run" includes Jeremy Siegel's highly anticipated analysis of the sub-prime crash, the financial crisis, and resulting world-wide recession. This n...
"One of the ten best investment books of all time." ("The Washington Post"). The stock-investing classic-updated to help you win consistently in the chaotic, post-meltdown global economy Now in its fifth edition, "Stocks for the Long Run" includes Jeremy Siegel's highly anticipated analysis of the sub-prime crash, the financial crisis, and resulting world-wide recession. This new edition also includes a deeper focus on international investing and emerging markets. "Jeremy Siegel is one of the great ones." (Jim Cramer, CNBC "MadMoney"). "[Jeremy Siegel's] contributions to finance and investing are of such significance as to change the direction of the Profession." (The Financial Analyst Institute). Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
In the first subperiod, from 1802 to 1870, the US made a transition from an agrarian to an industrialized economy, comparable to the transition that the "emerging markets" of Latin America and Asia are making today. In the second subperiod,from 1870 to 1935, the US became the foremost political and economics power in the world. The third subperiod, from 1926 to the present, contains the 1929 to 1932 stock collapse, the Great Depression and the postwar expansion. (查看原文)
此书是投资学名著《Stocks for the long run》第三版的中译本，作者是沃顿商学院顶尖的经济学家Jeremy J. Siegel，此君因为从价值投资角度预测了2000年科网泡沫而声名大噪。 当然，抛开预测科网泡沫以外，Stocks for the long run依旧是一本不可不读的经典著作。这本书...
(展开)
HISTORICAL YARDSTICKS FOR VALUING THE MARKET 对市场进行估值的一些历史标准 Price/Earnings Ratio and the Earnings Yield 观察PE要注意两点： The Aggregation Bias During normal periods when most firms are profitable and losses of other firms are small, the aggregation bias is very small. When a few firms experience large losses, the aggregation bias becomes significant. 由于少数权重股作用导致PE失真 ...
2018-11-22 20:52
HISTORICAL YARDSTICKS FOR VALUING THE MARKET
对市场进行估值的一些历史标准
Price/Earnings Ratio and the Earnings Yield
观察PE要注意两点：
The Aggregation Bias
During normal periods when most firms are profitable and losses of other firms are small, the aggregation bias is very small. When a few firms experience large losses, the aggregation bias becomes significant.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
由于少数权重股作用导致PE失真
The Earnings Yield
A median P/E ratio of approximately 15 for the U.S. market means the median earnings yield is 1/15, or 6.67 percent, a value that is strikingly close to the long-run real return on stocks.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
收益率是PE的倒数，美股中位数PE 15， 其倒数恰好是6.67%，大概与美股长期收益率相当。
The CAPE Ratio （cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio）
CAPE与PE比较
CAPE倾向低估市场收益
The Fed Model, Earnings Yields, and Bond Yields
The basic idea behind the Fed model is similar to comparing the dividend yield to the bond yield discussed at the onset of this chapter but, recognizing that firms pay out only a fraction of their earnings as dividends, uses the earnings yield and not the dividend yield. When the bond yields rise above the earnings yields, stock prices fall because investors shift their portfolio holdings from stocks to bonds. On the other hand, when the bond yields fall below the earnings yields, investors shift to stocks from bonds.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
Nevertheless, book value is a construct of the past; market value derives from prospective earnings and looks to the future. These prospective earnings more accurately establish the basis of stock valuation than the historical costs at which the firms purchased these assets.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
Profit Margins
利润率
FACTORS THAT MAY RAISE FUTURE VALUATION RATIOS
A Fall in Transaction Costs
交易费用的下降
Lower Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets
更低的固定收益资产回报率
We have noted that the historical premium (the equity premium) on holding stocks over bonds has been approximately 3 to 3 ½ percent. If we assume that the long-run real rate settles at 2 percent, about 1 to 1½ percent below its long-run average, then a 3 percent equity premium will require a 5 percent real return on stocks, which, as we noted above, arises from a 20 P/E multiple.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
The Equity Risk Premium
There is much literature that attempts to justify the 3 to 3½ percent risk premium found in the historical data in the context of standard macroeconomic models. Some of these are based on very high aversion by individuals. Others are based on the myopic behavior of those who dislike taking short-term losses on their investments even when they have substantial long-run gains. Perhaps part of the explanation of the size of the equity premium lies with the ignorance of the investing public of the magnitude of the outperformance of equities.22 If indeed the equity premium were fully recognized, the demand for stock would rise and P/E ratios would increase from historical levels.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
AVOIDING DEFLATION The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply. ————————————————————————————————————————————— REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Stocks 两大波动率衡量： The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the c...
2018-11-20 19:13
AVOIDING DEFLATION
The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply.
—————————————————————————————————————————————
REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Stocks
两大波动率衡量：
The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the cost of “insuring” a stock portfolio), soared from under 10 in March 2007, before the crisis began, to nearly 90 immediately following the Lehman bankruptcy.
1. VIX指数从10飙升到90
the number of days that the stock market rose or fell by 5 percent or more, increased sharply to levels not reached since the early 1930s.
2. 股市上涨或下跌5%的天数
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Real Estate
The price index of residential real estate declined by 26 percent as measured by the Case- Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan areas,and commercial real estate prices fell by 41 percent from October 2007 through November 2009.
CRB指数（ 商品研究局价格指数 Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index ）下跌58%
Investors who believed that commodities provided them a hedge against a severe stock market decline were wrong. As we explore later in this chapter, virtually no asset, except for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, served as an effective hedge against the sudden and sharp decline in asset values that took place during the financial crisis. Even gold, which had peaked just below $1,000 per ounce in July 2008, fell below $700 after the Lehman bankruptcy.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
Commodity prices are impacted by demand factors, such as the growth in the world economy, and supply factors, such as weather (for crops) and political developments (for oil). Fluctuations in demand cause a positive correlation between stock prices and commodity prices, while fluctuations in supply induce a negative correlation. If the major source of disturbances to the price of commodities arises from supply fluctuations, then holding commodities will serve as a good hedge against stocks. But when global demand shocks predominate, then commodity prices will move in tandem with stock prices, and commodities will serve as poor diversifiers against equity fluctuations.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
The positive correlations of equity markets with commodities and oil and the negative correlation with Treasury bonds and the dollar have given rise to the term risk-on/risk-off market. A risk-on market occurs when good news about the economy entices investors to buy stocks and go long commodities and sell the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. In such markets, stocks and commodity prices rise while U.S. Treasury bond prices and the dollar fall. Risk-off markets are the opposite, where bad economic news entices investors to buy U.S. Treasuries and the dollar while selling commodities and stocks. Gold prices can either rise or fall on these days.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS The Great Moderation “Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession. *美国“大稳健”的时代背景——格林斯潘1986-2006年任职美联储主席。 *资产的风险溢价降低——人们普遍相信美联储能够通过货币政策熨平经济周期 *高杠杆——收益的降低的背景下，人们为了获得更高的收益而使用更高的杠杆 ...
2018-11-19 23:00
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Great Moderation
“Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession.
nominal home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan communities
评级机构对AAA评级建立在错误的数学统计模型上，没有考虑全国性房价下跌的尾部风险
————————————————————————————————————————————
The Real Estate Bubble
房价与家庭收入中位数之比
But even when the price of an asset moves beyond its economic fundamentals, this does not guarantee that there is a “bubble.” Investors should recognize that there could be structural changes that justify the price rise. Indeed there have been periods in history when prices have moved away from fundamentals but were fully justified on the basis of changes in the economic environment.
First there were significant declines in both nominal and real interest rates that made the cost of home financing extremely low.
低利率导致房地产融资成本非常低
Second, there was the proliferation of new mortgage instruments, such as subprime and “full-funding” mortgages, which loaned up to—and in some cases more than—the purchase price of the home.
新的抵押贷款工具（实际就是加杠杆工具）
————————————————————————————————————————————
Regulatory Failure 监管失败
————————————————————————————————————————————
Overleverage by Financial Institutions in Risky Assets 金融机构过度杠杆化
The big difference between the two episodes is that at the peak of the tech boom, brokerage houses and investment banks did not hold large quantities of speculative stocks whose price was set to plummet. This is because investment firms had sold off virtually all their risky technology holdings to investors before the dot-com bubble burst.
Asset Returns Since 1802 Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term...
2018-11-19 22:42
Asset Returns Since 1802
各资产实际收益率
Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term real returns as do stocks.
CONFRONTING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS 第一章，过去一个世纪股票与债券的收益结论 第二章，金融危机的原因 第三章，金融危机对金融市场的影响 第四章，对美国经济的长期影响 ———————————————————————————————————————————— OTHER NEW MATERIAL IN THE FIFTH EDITION 更新图表至2012年 新预测模型--CAPE比率、净利率 第十九章，市场波动率：其与金融危机的关系 第二十章，依照简单的技...
Asset Returns Since 1802 Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term...
2018-11-19 22:42
Asset Returns Since 1802
各资产实际收益率
Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term real returns as do stocks.
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS The Great Moderation “Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession. *美国“大稳健”的时代背景——格林斯潘1986-2006年任职美联储主席。 *资产的风险溢价降低——人们普遍相信美联储能够通过货币政策熨平经济周期 *高杠杆——收益的降低的背景下，人们为了获得更高的收益而使用更高的杠杆 ...
2018-11-19 23:00
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Great Moderation
“Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession.
nominal home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan communities
评级机构对AAA评级建立在错误的数学统计模型上，没有考虑全国性房价下跌的尾部风险
————————————————————————————————————————————
The Real Estate Bubble
房价与家庭收入中位数之比
But even when the price of an asset moves beyond its economic fundamentals, this does not guarantee that there is a “bubble.” Investors should recognize that there could be structural changes that justify the price rise. Indeed there have been periods in history when prices have moved away from fundamentals but were fully justified on the basis of changes in the economic environment.
First there were significant declines in both nominal and real interest rates that made the cost of home financing extremely low.
低利率导致房地产融资成本非常低
Second, there was the proliferation of new mortgage instruments, such as subprime and “full-funding” mortgages, which loaned up to—and in some cases more than—the purchase price of the home.
新的抵押贷款工具（实际就是加杠杆工具）
————————————————————————————————————————————
Regulatory Failure 监管失败
————————————————————————————————————————————
Overleverage by Financial Institutions in Risky Assets 金融机构过度杠杆化
The big difference between the two episodes is that at the peak of the tech boom, brokerage houses and investment banks did not hold large quantities of speculative stocks whose price was set to plummet. This is because investment firms had sold off virtually all their risky technology holdings to investors before the dot-com bubble burst.
AVOIDING DEFLATION The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply. ————————————————————————————————————————————— REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Stocks 两大波动率衡量： The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the c...
2018-11-20 19:13
AVOIDING DEFLATION
The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply.
—————————————————————————————————————————————
REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Stocks
两大波动率衡量：
The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the cost of “insuring” a stock portfolio), soared from under 10 in March 2007, before the crisis began, to nearly 90 immediately following the Lehman bankruptcy.
1. VIX指数从10飙升到90
the number of days that the stock market rose or fell by 5 percent or more, increased sharply to levels not reached since the early 1930s.
2. 股市上涨或下跌5%的天数
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Real Estate
The price index of residential real estate declined by 26 percent as measured by the Case- Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan areas,and commercial real estate prices fell by 41 percent from October 2007 through November 2009.
CRB指数（ 商品研究局价格指数 Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index ）下跌58%
Investors who believed that commodities provided them a hedge against a severe stock market decline were wrong. As we explore later in this chapter, virtually no asset, except for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, served as an effective hedge against the sudden and sharp decline in asset values that took place during the financial crisis. Even gold, which had peaked just below $1,000 per ounce in July 2008, fell below $700 after the Lehman bankruptcy.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
Commodity prices are impacted by demand factors, such as the growth in the world economy, and supply factors, such as weather (for crops) and political developments (for oil). Fluctuations in demand cause a positive correlation between stock prices and commodity prices, while fluctuations in supply induce a negative correlation. If the major source of disturbances to the price of commodities arises from supply fluctuations, then holding commodities will serve as a good hedge against stocks. But when global demand shocks predominate, then commodity prices will move in tandem with stock prices, and commodities will serve as poor diversifiers against equity fluctuations.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
The positive correlations of equity markets with commodities and oil and the negative correlation with Treasury bonds and the dollar have given rise to the term risk-on/risk-off market. A risk-on market occurs when good news about the economy entices investors to buy stocks and go long commodities and sell the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. In such markets, stocks and commodity prices rise while U.S. Treasury bond prices and the dollar fall. Risk-off markets are the opposite, where bad economic news entices investors to buy U.S. Treasuries and the dollar while selling commodities and stocks. Gold prices can either rise or fall on these days.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
HISTORICAL YARDSTICKS FOR VALUING THE MARKET 对市场进行估值的一些历史标准 Price/Earnings Ratio and the Earnings Yield 观察PE要注意两点： The Aggregation Bias During normal periods when most firms are profitable and losses of other firms are small, the aggregation bias is very small. When a few firms experience large losses, the aggregation bias becomes significant. 由于少数权重股作用导致PE失真 ...
2018-11-22 20:52
HISTORICAL YARDSTICKS FOR VALUING THE MARKET
对市场进行估值的一些历史标准
Price/Earnings Ratio and the Earnings Yield
观察PE要注意两点：
The Aggregation Bias
During normal periods when most firms are profitable and losses of other firms are small, the aggregation bias is very small. When a few firms experience large losses, the aggregation bias becomes significant.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
由于少数权重股作用导致PE失真
The Earnings Yield
A median P/E ratio of approximately 15 for the U.S. market means the median earnings yield is 1/15, or 6.67 percent, a value that is strikingly close to the long-run real return on stocks.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
收益率是PE的倒数，美股中位数PE 15， 其倒数恰好是6.67%，大概与美股长期收益率相当。
The CAPE Ratio （cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio）
CAPE与PE比较
CAPE倾向低估市场收益
The Fed Model, Earnings Yields, and Bond Yields
The basic idea behind the Fed model is similar to comparing the dividend yield to the bond yield discussed at the onset of this chapter but, recognizing that firms pay out only a fraction of their earnings as dividends, uses the earnings yield and not the dividend yield. When the bond yields rise above the earnings yields, stock prices fall because investors shift their portfolio holdings from stocks to bonds. On the other hand, when the bond yields fall below the earnings yields, investors shift to stocks from bonds.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
Nevertheless, book value is a construct of the past; market value derives from prospective earnings and looks to the future. These prospective earnings more accurately establish the basis of stock valuation than the historical costs at which the firms purchased these assets.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
Profit Margins
利润率
FACTORS THAT MAY RAISE FUTURE VALUATION RATIOS
A Fall in Transaction Costs
交易费用的下降
Lower Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets
更低的固定收益资产回报率
We have noted that the historical premium (the equity premium) on holding stocks over bonds has been approximately 3 to 3 ½ percent. If we assume that the long-run real rate settles at 2 percent, about 1 to 1½ percent below its long-run average, then a 3 percent equity premium will require a 5 percent real return on stocks, which, as we noted above, arises from a 20 P/E multiple.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
The Equity Risk Premium
There is much literature that attempts to justify the 3 to 3½ percent risk premium found in the historical data in the context of standard macroeconomic models. Some of these are based on very high aversion by individuals. Others are based on the myopic behavior of those who dislike taking short-term losses on their investments even when they have substantial long-run gains. Perhaps part of the explanation of the size of the equity premium lies with the ignorance of the investing public of the magnitude of the outperformance of equities.22 If indeed the equity premium were fully recognized, the demand for stock would rise and P/E ratios would increase from historical levels.引自 11 Yardsticks to Value the Stock Market
AVOIDING DEFLATION The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply. ————————————————————————————————————————————— REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Stocks 两大波动率衡量： The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the c...
2018-11-20 19:13
AVOIDING DEFLATION
The Federal Reserve was able to avoid deflation by stabilizing the money supply.
—————————————————————————————————————————————
REACTION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Stocks
两大波动率衡量：
The VIX volatility index, which measures the premium built into put and calls on the stock market (in effect measuring the cost of “insuring” a stock portfolio), soared from under 10 in March 2007, before the crisis began, to nearly 90 immediately following the Lehman bankruptcy.
1. VIX指数从10飙升到90
the number of days that the stock market rose or fell by 5 percent or more, increased sharply to levels not reached since the early 1930s.
2. 股市上涨或下跌5%的天数
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Real Estate
The price index of residential real estate declined by 26 percent as measured by the Case- Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan areas,and commercial real estate prices fell by 41 percent from October 2007 through November 2009.
CRB指数（ 商品研究局价格指数 Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index ）下跌58%
Investors who believed that commodities provided them a hedge against a severe stock market decline were wrong. As we explore later in this chapter, virtually no asset, except for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, served as an effective hedge against the sudden and sharp decline in asset values that took place during the financial crisis. Even gold, which had peaked just below $1,000 per ounce in July 2008, fell below $700 after the Lehman bankruptcy.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
Commodity prices are impacted by demand factors, such as the growth in the world economy, and supply factors, such as weather (for crops) and political developments (for oil). Fluctuations in demand cause a positive correlation between stock prices and commodity prices, while fluctuations in supply induce a negative correlation. If the major source of disturbances to the price of commodities arises from supply fluctuations, then holding commodities will serve as a good hedge against stocks. But when global demand shocks predominate, then commodity prices will move in tandem with stock prices, and commodities will serve as poor diversifiers against equity fluctuations.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
The positive correlations of equity markets with commodities and oil and the negative correlation with Treasury bonds and the dollar have given rise to the term risk-on/risk-off market. A risk-on market occurs when good news about the economy entices investors to buy stocks and go long commodities and sell the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. In such markets, stocks and commodity prices rise while U.S. Treasury bond prices and the dollar fall. Risk-off markets are the opposite, where bad economic news entices investors to buy U.S. Treasuries and the dollar while selling commodities and stocks. Gold prices can either rise or fall on these days.引自 The Markets, the Economy, and Government Policy in the Wake of the Crisis
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS The Great Moderation “Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession. *美国“大稳健”的时代背景——格林斯潘1986-2006年任职美联储主席。 *资产的风险溢价降低——人们普遍相信美联储能够通过货币政策熨平经济周期 *高杠杆——收益的降低的背景下，人们为了获得更高的收益而使用更高的杠杆 ...
2018-11-19 23:00
THE CAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Great Moderation
“Great Moderation,” the name that economists gave to the remarkably long and stable economic period that preceded the Great Recession.
nominal home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index of 20 metropolitan communities
评级机构对AAA评级建立在错误的数学统计模型上，没有考虑全国性房价下跌的尾部风险
————————————————————————————————————————————
The Real Estate Bubble
房价与家庭收入中位数之比
But even when the price of an asset moves beyond its economic fundamentals, this does not guarantee that there is a “bubble.” Investors should recognize that there could be structural changes that justify the price rise. Indeed there have been periods in history when prices have moved away from fundamentals but were fully justified on the basis of changes in the economic environment.
First there were significant declines in both nominal and real interest rates that made the cost of home financing extremely low.
低利率导致房地产融资成本非常低
Second, there was the proliferation of new mortgage instruments, such as subprime and “full-funding” mortgages, which loaned up to—and in some cases more than—the purchase price of the home.
新的抵押贷款工具（实际就是加杠杆工具）
————————————————————————————————————————————
Regulatory Failure 监管失败
————————————————————————————————————————————
Overleverage by Financial Institutions in Risky Assets 金融机构过度杠杆化
The big difference between the two episodes is that at the peak of the tech boom, brokerage houses and investment banks did not hold large quantities of speculative stocks whose price was set to plummet. This is because investment firms had sold off virtually all their risky technology holdings to investors before the dot-com bubble burst.
Asset Returns Since 1802 Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term...
2018-11-19 22:42
Asset Returns Since 1802
各资产实际收益率
Note that stocks fluctuate both below and above the trendline but eventually return to the trend. Economists call this behavior mean reversion, a property that indicates that periods of aboveaverage returns tend to be followed by periods of below-average returns and vice versa. No other asset class—bonds, commodities, or the dollar— displays the stability of long-term real returns as do stocks.
Café
海南出版社2000版
埋埋
机械工业出版社2009版
鹏万陈忠良
机械工业出版社2009版
橘生淮北
机械工业出版社2009版
行胜言Action!
机械工业出版社2015版
1 有用 Kevin Lee 2018-11-23
Part I: Chapter 2, 3 着重讲述了08年金融危机之后各种金融资产的相关性。对判断之后的金融资产配置有借鉴意义。本书的重要意义在于通过200年的历史数据阐述了一个基本常识：由于人类进入法币本位制度，由政府印刷的纸币天然具有通胀倾向，最好的保值方式是长期持有分散化的股票资产（这里，重要的前提是资本主义制度不会消失，股市作为资源分配的重要手段，是资本主义系统的大脑）。
1 有用 JSC 2019-04-12
知道为啥别人炒股都比你们厉害了吧？人家用数据，用逻辑。你们用《周易》。 这本书适合所有学金融的人，甚至于要理财持家的人一读。当然，对经济周期的解释也很到位。另外吐槽一下这本书中文书名翻译地实在是太土了。
0 有用 宝宝TWO 2014-10-09
首先这是一本通俗读物，但是相对来说，思想稍微深刻一点，也更有学术感觉一点。
0 有用 踏水而行 2018-02-05
失望。冲着名字去，想知道为何是Stock For the Long Run，结果没有深刻的解答。重温了一遍股票市场101
0 有用 [已注销] 2019-11-30
一口气读了四章Jeremy J.Siegel的书很有意思，前两章从经济学家的视角详细讲2008次贷危机的形成，第三章描述在危机中不同板块的资产在同一时局下共振所产生的反馈机制，从大类资产的角度探讨共振通常不是经济学家的视角，更像trader的探讨，虽然浅尝辄止没有深入去聊资产间共振的反馈循环，但角度令人眼前一亮。第四章也是从我喜欢的角度，探讨全球老龄化，不仅仅是经济学社会学的层面，切入的视角是资产... 一口气读了四章Jeremy J.Siegel的书很有意思，前两章从经济学家的视角详细讲2008次贷危机的形成，第三章描述在危机中不同板块的资产在同一时局下共振所产生的反馈机制，从大类资产的角度探讨共振通常不是经济学家的视角，更像trader的探讨，虽然浅尝辄止没有深入去聊资产间共振的反馈循环，但角度令人眼前一亮。第四章也是从我喜欢的角度，探讨全球老龄化，不仅仅是经济学社会学的层面，切入的视角是资产价格是未来人口的时间函数，尽管仅仅从美国权益市场接盘侠的维度探讨发展中国家年轻人的债务，但自由贸易和资本自由流动机制下，资本和经常账户的盈余却并不一定如作者所愿，作为新增债务来源贡献给高收入发达国家。 (展开)
0 有用 gl 2020-12-03
经典不用多说。每次读都能有新的领悟。
0 有用 飞的鼠 2020-11-06
很不错的一本书，数据量很大，解释也通俗易懂，适合刚接触投资的同学。
0 有用 [已注销] 2019-11-30
一口气读了四章Jeremy J.Siegel的书很有意思，前两章从经济学家的视角详细讲2008次贷危机的形成，第三章描述在危机中不同板块的资产在同一时局下共振所产生的反馈机制，从大类资产的角度探讨共振通常不是经济学家的视角，更像trader的探讨，虽然浅尝辄止没有深入去聊资产间共振的反馈循环，但角度令人眼前一亮。第四章也是从我喜欢的角度，探讨全球老龄化，不仅仅是经济学社会学的层面，切入的视角是资产... 一口气读了四章Jeremy J.Siegel的书很有意思，前两章从经济学家的视角详细讲2008次贷危机的形成，第三章描述在危机中不同板块的资产在同一时局下共振所产生的反馈机制，从大类资产的角度探讨共振通常不是经济学家的视角，更像trader的探讨，虽然浅尝辄止没有深入去聊资产间共振的反馈循环，但角度令人眼前一亮。第四章也是从我喜欢的角度，探讨全球老龄化，不仅仅是经济学社会学的层面，切入的视角是资产价格是未来人口的时间函数，尽管仅仅从美国权益市场接盘侠的维度探讨发展中国家年轻人的债务，但自由贸易和资本自由流动机制下，资本和经常账户的盈余却并不一定如作者所愿，作为新增债务来源贡献给高收入发达国家。 (展开)
1 有用 JSC 2019-04-12
知道为啥别人炒股都比你们厉害了吧？人家用数据，用逻辑。你们用《周易》。 这本书适合所有学金融的人，甚至于要理财持家的人一读。当然，对经济周期的解释也很到位。另外吐槽一下这本书中文书名翻译地实在是太土了。
1 有用 Kevin Lee 2018-11-23
Part I: Chapter 2, 3 着重讲述了08年金融危机之后各种金融资产的相关性。对判断之后的金融资产配置有借鉴意义。本书的重要意义在于通过200年的历史数据阐述了一个基本常识：由于人类进入法币本位制度，由政府印刷的纸币天然具有通胀倾向，最好的保值方式是长期持有分散化的股票资产（这里，重要的前提是资本主义制度不会消失，股市作为资源分配的重要手段，是资本主义系统的大脑）。