Why is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell??s Blink
Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition??a suite of gut feelings that have evolved ov...
Why is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell??s Blink
Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition??a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions. ??Gladwell drew heavily on Gigerenzer??s research. But Gigerenzer goes a step further by explaining just why our gut instincts are so often right. Intuition, it seems, is not some sort of mystical chemical reaction but a neurologically based behavior that evolved to ensure that we humans respond quickly when faced with a dilemma?? (BusinessWeek).
作者简介
· · · · · ·
Gerd Gigerenzer is the director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. He has won numerous prizes, including the 1992 AAAS Prize for Behavioral Science Research and the 2002 German Science Book of the Year Prize. He has been professor of psychology at the University of Chicago and the John M. Olin Distingui...
Gerd Gigerenzer is the director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. He has won numerous prizes, including the 1992 AAAS Prize for Behavioral Science Research and the 2002 German Science Book of the Year Prize. He has been professor of psychology at the University of Chicago and the John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Law, University of Virginia.
原文摘录 · · · · · ·
Logic and related...
The mind, in my view, ... (查看原文)
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible where character is the more developed, and most of all in man.
The fact is, the nature of man is the most rounded off and complete, and consequently in man the qualities or capacities above referred to are found in their perfection. Hence woman is more compassionate than man, more easily moved to tears, at the same time is more jealous, more querulous, more apt to scold and to strike. She is, furt... (查看原文)
攻击了multiple regression不如简单人工挑选的variable更能预测未来，虽然fit过去更好。跟Kahnaman的说法（评测士兵的故事）正好相反。Kahnaman的例子数量更大，重复次数跟过。作者的挑股票参加竞赛和预测高中退学率例子，不清楚reproducibility如何呢？ 另外不是只有multiple regression这一种办法啊，作者的描述像是simple decision tree，凭什么保证每个人都挑一样的rule一样的weights assigned to different variables？换...(1回应)
2012-03-07 00:311人喜欢
攻击了multiple regression不如简单人工挑选的variable更能预测未来，虽然fit过去更好。跟Kahnaman的说法（评测士兵的故事）正好相反。Kahnaman的例子数量更大，重复次数跟过。作者的挑股票参加竞赛和预测高中退学率例子，不清楚reproducibility如何呢？
另外不是只有multiple regression这一种办法啊，作者的描述像是simple decision tree，凭什么保证每个人都挑一样的rule一样的weights assigned to different variables？换一个人的主观decision tree是否仍然保证outperform multiple regression or other more complex methods?
衡量uncertainty这里倒稍微说清楚了一点===看fit的R square大小，太小的model根本就不fit data，当然predictive power就不行。如果能fit进去的所有variable都用上了R square仍然很小，就说明系统本身随机，根本就不可预测。
我喜欢这样的解释。
但是如果系统本身不可预测，为什么用直觉反而可以预测了呢？经得起推敲吗？长期大量独立数据证明过了吗？听起来实在有点flaky.
关于人对概率缺乏认识，对数字(frequency)认识的还可以，作者说so what,是你实验条件不符合现实生活？I mean, really???? 现在的生活里面需要懂得概率的地方只有越来越多的，哪里就不符合了？浪费太多钱买了过多保险这个例子作者就没有直面啊。
还没有听完。非常thought provoking也非常纠结。
PART 1:UNCONSCIOUS INTELLIGENCE 1. Gut Feelings 开篇明义。通过三个例子解释直觉。说明了什么是直觉。直觉有用的原因，一是有简单的 rule of thumb，二是根植于人脑进化来的能力。maximizer 和 sacrificer 的划分很有启发，富兰克林在这里成了反面教材。 2. Less Is (Sometimes) More 有时更少的信息 更少的选项 更少的时间 反而更好 3. How Intuition Works 直觉的背后是 rule of thumb. 而 rule of thumb 与内外因素交互有...
2018-12-18 00:39
PART 1:UNCONSCIOUS INTELLIGENCE
1. Gut Feelings
开篇明义。通过三个例子解释直觉。说明了什么是直觉。直觉有用的原因，一是有简单的 rule of thumb，二是根植于人脑进化来的能力。maximizer 和 sacrificer 的划分很有启发，富兰克林在这里成了反面教材。
2. Less Is (Sometimes) More
有时更少的信息 更少的选项 更少的时间 反而更好
3. How Intuition Works
直觉的背后是 rule of thumb. 而 rule of thumb 与内外因素交互有关：内部需要 evolved capacity, 而外部环境决定了 rule of thumb 是否有效。
4. Evolved Brains
adaptive toolbox 的三层：evolved capacity => building blocks => rules of thumb
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible...
2017-08-03 13:35
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible where character is the more developed, and most of all in man.
The fact is, the nature of man is the most rounded off and complete, and consequently in man the qualities or capacities above referred to are found in their perfection. Hence woman is more compassionate than man, more easily moved to tears, at the same time is more jealous, more querulous, more apt to scold and to strike. She is, furthermore, more prone to despondency and less hopeful than the man, more void of shame or self-respect, more false of speech, more deceptive, and of more retentive memory. She is also more wakeful, more shrinking, more difficult to rouse to action, and requires a smaller quantity of nutriment. 引自第1页
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible...
2017-08-03 13:35
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible where character is the more developed, and most of all in man.
The fact is, the nature of man is the most rounded off and complete, and consequently in man the qualities or capacities above referred to are found in their perfection. Hence woman is more compassionate than man, more easily moved to tears, at the same time is more jealous, more querulous, more apt to scold and to strike. She is, furthermore, more prone to despondency and less hopeful than the man, more void of shame or self-respect, more false of speech, more deceptive, and of more retentive memory. She is also more wakeful, more shrinking, more difficult to rouse to action, and requires a smaller quantity of nutriment. 引自第1页
PART 1:UNCONSCIOUS INTELLIGENCE 1. Gut Feelings 开篇明义。通过三个例子解释直觉。说明了什么是直觉。直觉有用的原因，一是有简单的 rule of thumb，二是根植于人脑进化来的能力。maximizer 和 sacrificer 的划分很有启发，富兰克林在这里成了反面教材。 2. Less Is (Sometimes) More 有时更少的信息 更少的选项 更少的时间 反而更好 3. How Intuition Works 直觉的背后是 rule of thumb. 而 rule of thumb 与内外因素交互有...
2018-12-18 00:39
PART 1:UNCONSCIOUS INTELLIGENCE
1. Gut Feelings
开篇明义。通过三个例子解释直觉。说明了什么是直觉。直觉有用的原因，一是有简单的 rule of thumb，二是根植于人脑进化来的能力。maximizer 和 sacrificer 的划分很有启发，富兰克林在这里成了反面教材。
2. Less Is (Sometimes) More
有时更少的信息 更少的选项 更少的时间 反而更好
3. How Intuition Works
直觉的背后是 rule of thumb. 而 rule of thumb 与内外因素交互有关：内部需要 evolved capacity, 而外部环境决定了 rule of thumb 是否有效。
4. Evolved Brains
adaptive toolbox 的三层：evolved capacity => building blocks => rules of thumb
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible...
2017-08-03 13:35
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible where character is the more developed, and most of all in man.
The fact is, the nature of man is the most rounded off and complete, and consequently in man the qualities or capacities above referred to are found in their perfection. Hence woman is more compassionate than man, more easily moved to tears, at the same time is more jealous, more querulous, more apt to scold and to strike. She is, furthermore, more prone to despondency and less hopeful than the man, more void of shame or self-respect, more false of speech, more deceptive, and of more retentive memory. She is also more wakeful, more shrinking, more difficult to rouse to action, and requires a smaller quantity of nutriment. 引自第1页
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PART 1:UNCONSCIOUS INTELLIGENCE 1. Gut Feelings 开篇明义。通过三个例子解释直觉。说明了什么是直觉。直觉有用的原因，一是有简单的 rule of thumb，二是根植于人脑进化来的能力。maximizer 和 sacrificer 的划分很有启发，富兰克林在这里成了反面教材。 2. Less Is (Sometimes) More 有时更少的信息 更少的选项 更少的时间 反而更好 3. How Intuition Works 直觉的背后是 rule of thumb. 而 rule of thumb 与内外因素交互有...
With all other animals the female is softer in disposition than the male, is more mischievous, less simple, more impulsive, and more attentive to the nurture of the young: the male, on the other hand, is more spirited than the female, more savage, more simple and less cunning. The traces of these differentiated characteristics are more or less visible everywhere, but they are especially visible...
0 有用 makzhou 2020-07-16
案例比理论有趣的多。
1 有用 Jewel 2017-07-03
直觉里的逻辑 这也是一本会悄悄改变行为模式的书
0 有用 random34 2011-06-20
内容可以一句话概括，就是在信息不全的情况下，进行认真的分析还不像依靠直觉行动
0 有用 一顾 2021-01-23
整本书都在解构自己。
0 有用 weihu 2016-07-10
看看
0 有用 一顾 2021-01-23
整本书都在解构自己。
0 有用 makzhou 2020-07-16
案例比理论有趣的多。
0 有用 cheery 2020-02-24
直觉比认真分析更好使？
1 有用 Jewel 2017-07-03
直觉里的逻辑 这也是一本会悄悄改变行为模式的书
0 有用 四四四毛 2017-02-03
人生第一本英文书，打卡纪念一下。