Gut Feelings

Many skills lack descriptive language.

The instinct to go with what you know has survival value in the natural world.

A beneficial degree of ignorance can be valuable.

指责直觉派 vs. 挺直觉派当然直觉works some of the time, 沉思works in others ---- 直觉进化*****年而来，人类整个才思考多少年？假定世界可以简化成binary的，判断方式binary: 直觉vs思考，结果binary: right vs. wrong. 显然4个象限每个里面都会有些数据点。目前两边都没有谁可能穷举所有的事例，连大致穷举所有事例类型都不可能。挺直觉拿出一些cherry picked例子说，你看，直觉比思考牛逼！！所以用直觉吧用直觉吧。拍直觉的拿出另外一些cherry picked例子说，你看，思考比直觉牛逼！！所以思考吧思考吧 -- 当然Kahnaman貌似说的是有时候直觉有时候思考。既然四个象限都有内容，总可以找例子证明自己。可惜本书作者都没有太试图找反例。 很多书里的例子也没有考虑significance -- 100道题做对72道，稍微高于做对70道，对吗？这得recruit多大的样本才能证明这么小的差异是statistically significant (i.e. not very likely to happen by chance alone). What about the NBA example? Simple decision tree with rule A wins as much as Bayesian analysis with both rule A and B, so simple decision wins? That simply means rule B is noninformative. Come on, what if someone chose Rule B as the rule for his "one rule decision making"? Same thing for the example for picking high schools. How are those "one rule"'s considered the runner up vs. Bayes? Not explained.Of course SOMETIMES one is better than the other. The key is to tell BEFOREHAND "when". Yes, yes, the author says "if recall is not purely by chance", "if recall accuracy is better than vaguely knowing", big ifs. How can you judge this? Yes sometimes you trust your gut and you win. Sometimes you loose. Unless you keep accurate tally and review your track record regularly, aren't you just going to fall prey to all kinds of recalling biases and false believe you are a prediction machine? And life is not always as repeatable and well defined as a binary game.