The Age of Turbulence

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• I signed up for a course in mathematical statistics, a technical discipline based on the notion that the inner workings and interrrelationships of a major economy can be investigated, measured, modeled, and analyzed mathematically. Today, the discipline is called econometrics. If the economy could be accurately modeled using empirical facts and math, the large-scale forecasts could be derived methodically, without the quasi-scientific intuition employed by so many economic forecasters. If models have so little predictive power, what use are they? The least-heralded advantage of formal model is simply that the exercise of using them ensures that basic rules of national accounting and economic consistency are being applied to a set of assumptions. Any models certainly can help maximize the e... (查看原文)

  Gloria 2013-12-17 21:17:17

• Working with heavy industry gave me a profound appreciation of the central dynamic of capitalism."Creative destruction" is an idea that was articulated by the Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942. Like many powerful ideas, his is simple: A market economy will incessantly revitalize itself from within by scraping old and failing businesses and then reallocating resources to newer, more productive ones. (查看原文)

  Gloria 2013-12-19 22:06:34