In Line Behind a Billion People

Nearly everything you know about China is wrong! Yes, within a decade, China will have the world’s largest economy. But that is the least important thing to know about China. In this enlightening book, two of the world’s leading China experts turn the conventional wisdom on its head, showing why China’s economic growth will constrain rather than empower it. Pioneering political...

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Nearly everything you know about China is wrong! Yes, within a decade, China will have the world’s largest economy. But that is the least important thing to know about China. In this enlightening book, two of the world’s leading China experts turn the conventional wisdom on its head, showing why China’s economic growth will constrain rather than empower it. Pioneering political analyst Damien Ma and global economist Bill Adams reveal why, having 35 years of ferocious economic growth, China’s future will be shaped by the same fundamental reality that has shaped it for millennia: scarcity. Ma and Adams drill deep into Chinese society, illuminating all the scarcities that will limit its power and progress. Beyond scarcities of natural resources and public goods, they illuminate China’s persistent poverties of individual freedoms, cultural appeal, and ideological legitimacy — and the corrosive loss of values and beliefs amongst a growing middle class shackled by a parochial and inflexible political system. Everyone knows “the 21st century is China’s to lose” — but, as with so many things that “everyone knows,” that’s just wrong. Ma and Adams get beyond cheerleading and fearmongering to tell the complex truth about China today. This is a truth you need to hear — whether you’re an investor, business decision-maker, policymaker, or citizen.

DAMIEN MA (Washington, DC), Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group’s Asia practice, analyzes links between Chinese politics and markets, focusing on energy, industrial policies, commodities, elite politics, US-China trade, and social/Internet policies. He writes for Atlantic Monthly Online; has written for Slate, New Republic, BusinessWeek, Forbes, and Foreign Policy; and teaches poli...

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DAMIEN MA (Washington, DC), Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group’s Asia practice, analyzes links between Chinese politics and markets, focusing on energy, industrial policies, commodities, elite politics, US-China trade, and social/Internet policies. He writes for Atlantic Monthly Online; has written for Slate, New Republic, BusinessWeek, Forbes, and Foreign Policy; and teaches political risk analysis at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

BILL ADAMS (Pittsburgh, PA), Sr. International Economist for PNC Financial Services Group, is responsible for forecasting economic conditions in China. Formerly resident economist at The Conference Board China Center, he has published extensive research on China’s economy.

Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Economic scarcity 6
1. Resources: While supplies last 6
2. Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 6
3. Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 7
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Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Economic scarcity 6
1. Resources: While supplies last 6
2. Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 6
3. Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 7
Social scarcity 7
4. Welfare: Socialism with Chinese .actually no, not socialism at all 7
5. Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 7
6. Housing: Home is where the wallet is 8
Political scarcity 8
7. Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 8
8. Values: What would Confucius do? 9
9. Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world 9
Part I Economic Scarcity 13
Chapter 1 Resources: While supplies last 15
The Panda Boom 19
It’s the CPI, stupid 20
Smashing the iron rice bowl 22
Under the mattress: Savings gluttony 24
The world ain’t so flat, or, good neighbors near and far 26
Bamboo consumption continued 28
Land: So much yet so little 29
Ownership society with Chinese characteristics 30
Legacy problems 32
Energy: From industry to transport and residential 34
Import dependence as Achilles’ heel 39
Water 41
Thirsty industry 42
H2O politics 46
Chapter 2 Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 49
Feeding one-fifth of humanity 53
A diet for a land of plenty 56
The meat of the problem 56
Hot and bothered .and thirsty 61
Rise of the machines? 63
From Happy Meals to deadly dinners 66
Astronauts get Tang, taikonauts get grass-fed beef 69
Chapter 3 Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 75
Socialist employers’ paradise 77
...Becomes socialist employers’ paradise, lost 80
Migrants came, saw, and some are saying see ya later 81
Westward they go 84
Workers with attitude 87
Warmer, cuddlier policy for migrants 88
School of hard knocks 90
What happens when your key economic input shrinks? 91
Cashing out on the demographic dividend: an “uh oh” moment? 93
Public policy: A dash of creativity and wisdom needed 94
When 150 million workers unite 97
Part II Social Scarcity 99
Chapter 4 Welfare: Socialism with Chinese actually no, not socialism at all 101
Dismantling the welfare system 104
...And stitching it back together 112
From youth bulge to geriatric bulge 117
Mo’ bling, mo’ honeys 125
Serving the people 128
Chapter 5 Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 131
A thought experiment: Turkmenbashi for a day 131
No, seriously, there is a real thing called urban bias 132
The social equalizer that isn’t 135
From urban bias to urban household bias 142
Turn on, tune in, and study abroad: Life at the top 144
Running out of levers to pull 147
Chapter 6 Housing: Home is where the wallet is 151
Phat cribs and fatter wallets 153
An urban middle class is born 156
Jobs all around 157
Fat pancakes from the sky: the rich man’s boom 159
So happy together 160
When virtues become flaws 161
“I love you .after you’ve closed on that two-bedroom” 162
On the outside looking in 165
Socialist property rights with Chinese characteristics 167
Revenge of the capitalists 169
No taxation without representation .but with corruption 170
Squeezed 173
Part III Political Scarcity .177
Chapter 7 Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 179
A young nation-state 182
E pluribus mishmash 185
What comes after a revolution? 189
Forging the Deng Xiaoping consensus 190
New slogans, same consensus 193
The second identity crisis 195
Nationalism to the rescue (sort of) 198
Virtue is as virtuous does 200
Confucius as cultural export 204
Searching for a distinctly Chinese paradigm? 205
Chapter 8 Values: What would Confucius do? 209
Qunar (or where to)? 212
Software upgrades 213
Pursuit of happiness 215
Separate but unequal 219
Governing post-materialist China: The “what have you done for me lately” problem 223
It’s (mostly) sunny in Canton 224
Swatting flies 225
China pushes back on values 227
China the exceptional? 232
Chapter 9 Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world 237
A decade of harmony? 242
Stability Inc. 244
The “average Zhou” pushes back 249
From 100 flowers to 100 million weibos 254
Fast and furious .and deadly 255
Give me PM 2.5 or give me death 260
Coloring outside the lines 264
Conclusion 267
All your (economic) base are belong to us 267
Embracing change: the basecase 270
Growth without abundance 271
A “New Deal” with Chinese characteristics 274
Chinese governance 4.0 277
Baby steps 279
What if the Chinese dream is deferred? 283
Endnotes 287
Index 319
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