《亿亿万万》的原文摘录

  • 译序 科学文化和人文文化的共同责任 丘宏义 卡尔·萨根的终极关怀卡尔已经离我们而去了。在这种场合,中国人常说的一句话是“盖棺论定”。这句话带了一点这个人已经去世,我们可以替他下一个结论的含义。可是在卡尔身上,我们不如引用他爱妻的话:“卡尔还一样继续活着。”最近,一位希腊裔的天文界好友英年早逝。在希腊正教的礼堂中举行追思礼拜时,正教的僧侣说了一句令人感动的话:“只要有一个人还记得死者,他就还活着。”死亡往往是人们最恐惧,却又不可避免的最后命运。美国开国元勋本杰明· 富兰克林讨论税收的时候,说了一句俏皮话:“世界上只有两样事是绝对确定的:死亡和交税。”有很多人写过死亡。可是,在本书中我们看到一位极有才华的人怎样面对死亡。卡尔写道:“死亡只是一个不会醒来的无梦长眠。”这就是莎士比亚在《哈姆雷特》中写的:“死亡,就是睡去。”(To die, to sleep.) 一般人对死亡的恐惧,说穿了,就是恐惧死亡。其实许多世界上的事都类似这种因为果,果为因的形态。20 世纪30 年代,美国在经济不景气中选出罗斯福担任总统。他一上台,就说了一句话鼓励沮丧中的人民:“唯一能令人恐惧的就是恐惧本身。”(There is nothing to fear but fear itself.) 为什么我要提起卡尔还继续活着呢?一直到他死的时候,卡尔最担心的就是我们全球文明在大气中不断地、有增无减地排放二氧化碳。本书中提到许多二氧化碳在全球环境中会造成的后果,在此不再赘述。最反对限制二氧化碳的是工业界,尤其是石油工业。他们甚至把科学家的诚实态度拿来作为反对的工具:科学家们研究大气,发现二氧化碳可以造成全球变暖,结论是有这样一个现象,可是坏到什么程度,还存在些不定数。这是科学的精神——知之为知,不知为不知。工业界以他们雄厚的经济力量及权势(有了钱当然有势),把科学家诚实的态度扭曲了一下,说:“这些科学家... (查看原文)
    武嘉祁 2022-07-15 21:11:39
  • 25 年后 本书作者于1996年底弃世。这本书是他历年写的短文集,是他最后出版的一本书。在这25年内,在这世界里,发生过许多大事。25年后的今天,这本书是否还有价值呢? 非但有,而且有许多问题变成更尖锐,从隐忧变成时代性的问题。我在这里把一部分我认为重要的写出来。细读后,读者可以发现更多的隐忧。 本书第二章讲到波斯棋盘。一位发明西洋棋的人,把棋盘献给一个国王,国王非常喜欢,问这位发明家要什么。他说不多,在第一格放一粒麦子,第二格放两粒,第三格放四粒,依次类推。因此,棋盘上的麦子的数目(重量) 以2为单位倍增。每粒麦子的平均重量为0.065克(在西方,最小的重量单位是grain,就是一粒麦的重量)。不久,国王发现,在第60格的时候,麦粒的总重量是600万吨,超过他的国家麦子年产量许多倍。这种可怕的倍增是指数增长的一种,即以某种倍数的方式增值。在棋盘的例子里,这倍数是2,当然也可以以其他数字来增倍,如以下说到的信用卡的例子。 本书论及一些问题,如人口问题、艾滋病的传播等,都呈指数增长的现象。随着教育的普及,在工业发达国家,包括中国,人口的激增已经开始缓慢下来,虽然在有些国家,如宗教及社会组织复杂的国家,如印度,人口还在以相当的数量增加。一般说来,疫病也可以呈指数增加。在欧洲,黑死病,即鼠疫,在中古时代也曾经以指数增长的方式增加过,有数次之多。最严重的一次导致几乎1/3的欧洲人死亡。本书中提到的是数十年前成为灾祸的艾滋病。由于防范知识的传播及医学的进步,艾滋病的传播也开始减缓,现在甚至已经成为不常听到的新闻题材。可是,自2019年冬天起,另一种危机又降临到人类身上,即新型冠状病毒,现在学名为COVID-19。第一个发现的地方是中国武汉,可是起源的地点至今还未确定。在中国,一开始就以严格隔离及迅速治疗的方法来处理,已经几乎成功了。而在其他先进国家,以美国为首,认为中国的急速严... (查看原文)
    武嘉祁 2022-07-15 21:11:39
  • 译序 科学文化和人文文化的共同责任 第一部分 量化的力与美 第一章 亿亿万万 第二章 波斯棋盘 第三章 周一夜狩猎者 第四章 上帝的注视和滴水的水龙头 第五章 4个宇宙级问题 第六章 如此多的太阳,如此多的世界 第二部分 保守分子在保守些什么 第七章 邮寄来的世界 第八章 环境:要小心谨慎什么 第九章 克里萨斯及卡珊德拉 第十章 一片天空不见了 第十一章 伏兵:全球变暖 第十二章 从埋伏中逃出 第十三章 宗教和科学的联盟 第三部分 感情与理智的冲突 第十四章 公敌 第十五章 人工流产:能不能同时拥护“生命至上”和“自愿至上” 第十六章 游戏规则第十七章葛底斯堡与现在 第十八章 20世纪的三大创新 第十九章 行经死荫的幽谷 尾声 卡尔不死 (查看原文)
    武嘉祁 2022-07-15 21:11:39
  • Now imagine a Western observer considering some of the events in Soviet history. Marshal Tukhachevsky’s marching orders on July 2, 1920, were, “On our bayonets we will bring peace and happiness to toiling humanity. Forward to the West!” Shortly after, V. I. Lenin, in conversation with French delegates, remarked: “Yes, Soviet troops are in Warsaw. Soon Germany will be ours. We will reconquer Hungary. The Balkans will rise against capitalism. Italy will tremble. Bourgeois Europe is cracking at all its seams in this storm.” Then contemplate the millions of Soviet citizens killed by Stalin’s deliberate policy in the years between 1929 and World War II—in forced collectivization, mass deportation of peasants, the resulting famine of 1932–33, and the great purges (in which almost the entire Comm... (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 21:06:10
    —— 引自章节:第十四章 公敌 / 185
  • The use of potentially life-saving technology differs from nation to nation. The United States, for example, has the highest infant mortality of any industrial nation. It has more young black men in prison than in college, and a greater percentage of its citizens in jail than any other industrial nation. Its students routinely perform poorly on standardized science and mathematics tests when compared with students of the same age in other countries. The disparity in real income between the rich and the poor and the decline of the middle class have been growing swiftly over the last decade and a half. The United States is last among industrialized nations in the fraction of the national income given each year to help people in other countries. High technology industry has been fleeing Ameri... (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 22:03:55
    —— 引自章节:第十八章 20 世纪的三大创新 / 248
  • The introduction of mass-market paperback books in the 1940s has brought the world’s literature and the insights of its greatest thinkers, present and past, into the lives of ordinary people. And even if the price of paperback books is soaring today, there are still great bargains, such as the dollar-a-volume classics from Dover Books. Along with progress in literacy such trends are the allies of Jeffersonian democracy. On the other hand what passes for literacy in America in the late twentieth century is a very rudimentary knowledge of the English language, and television in particular tends to seduce the mass population away from reading. In pursuit of the profit motive, it has dumbed itself down to lowest-common-denominator programming—instead of rising up to teach and inspire. (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 22:13:15
    —— 引自章节:第十八章 20 世纪的三大创新 / 248
  • Thomas Jefferson taught that a democracy was impractical unless the people were educated. No matter how stringent the protections of the people might be in constitutions or common law, there would always be a temptation, Jefferson thought, for the powerful, the wealthy, and the unscrupulous to undermine the ideal of government run by and for ordinary citizens. The antidote is vigorous support for the expression of unpopular views, widespread literacy, substantive debate, a common familiarity with critical thinking, and skepticism of pronouncements of those in authority—which are all also central to the scientific method. (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 22:13:15
    —— 引自章节:第十八章 20 世纪的三大创新 / 248
  • But time passed, new archives were opened, revised histories became available and acceptable, Lenin was demythologized, and the situation resolved itself. In Arbatov’s own memoirs appears the following gracious note: (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 22:30:36
    —— 引自章节:第十四章 公敌 / 185
  • Here I have an apology to make. In my comments in Ogonyok in 1988, discussing an article by the astronomer Carl Sagan, I brushed aside his conclusion that Tukhachevsky’s Polish campaign had been an attempt at exporting revolution. This was due to the usual defensiveness, which became a conditioned reflex, and the fact that we got into the habit over many years (eventually it became second nature) of sweeping “inconvenient” facts under the rug. I, for example, have only recently studied these pages of our history with any degree of care. (查看原文)
    Joan 2025-03-16 22:30:36
    —— 引自章节:第十四章 公敌 / 185