In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
读前面一百页没什么特别的感觉，但是war economy那部分真的感动到了，是的，感动。终于有人站出来说这个事了，虽然briefly。而且最后summary部分还强调生产力才是根本，长远来看，各种战争衰退萧条都会过去，生产力的提升才是一直持续的事情，让我们可以最终熬过各种bump。谢谢你，this is helpful for confronting various difficulties in my real daily life.
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of persp...
换句话说就是，只要印出来的钱都是拿来还债，扩大生产，消费了，就没问题；可是如果印出来的钱已经没处可去，开始“park the money”的时候，那就是印钱真的印出通胀的时候了。 People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won’t if it offsets falling credit and the deflationary forces are balanced with this reflationary force. That’s not a theory—it’s been repeatedly proven out in history... By...
所以说，PE Ratio什么的都太有迷惑性了，当你看着现在还那么吸引人的PE的时候，有可能下一次的Earnings Call就会给你惊喜。毕竟，Price天天update，Earning四个月你才会知道一次。 In the early stages of a bubble bursting, when stock prices fall and earnings have not yet declined, people mistakenly judge the decline to be a buying opportunity and find stocks cheap in relation to both past earnings and expec...
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
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