How investor expectations move markets and the economy
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the...
How investor expectations move markets and the economy
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today's most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks.
Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people--and how financial and economic instability persist.
A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today's unpredictable financial waters.
作者简介
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Nicola Gennaioli is professor of finance at Bocconi University in Italy. He lives in Milan. Andrei Shleifer is professor of economics at Harvard University. His books include Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance and The Grabbing Hand: Government Pathologies and Their Cures. He lives in Newton, Massachusetts.
原文摘录
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If relatively few biological processes, such as attention and memory, shape beliefs,we should expect some relationship between different biases. Memory retrieval, for instance, is an essential part of belief construction, which arguably shapes our beliefs about future average conditions, our perception of tail risks, and our interpretation of incoming news. But then, as the product of the same retrieval mechanisms, how are these features of beliefs related to each other? (查看原文)
With representativeness-based thinking, good news causes agents to oversample good future states from memory, including excessive optimism. The reverse occurs after people get bad news. (查看原文)
Everything starts off well. A reintroduction of 2008 financial crisis is concise and not just repetition of what's been said. While qualitative part of the book is coherent and heuristic, quantitative...Everything starts off well. A reintroduction of 2008 financial crisis is concise and not just repetition of what's been said. While qualitative part of the book is coherent and heuristic, quantitative formulas is killing me. So, skip those numerical expressions!(展开)
4 有用 <>< 2019-01-29 01:43:15
人总是会赋予印象深刻的事更多权重。因此一件事情刚发生时，我们很难做到就事论事地评价它带来的影响；相反，这件事情会唤起我们对类似的经历的回忆，从而影响我们当下判断的客观性。可以与 Shiller 的 narrative economics 对比着读，一体两面。08年金融危机的媒体报道和渲染肯定在恐慌蔓延中起了很大作用。storytelling 不光对事后复盘很重要，也影响实时的判断和选择。
3 有用 拉夫 2019-06-08 23:56:07
Everything starts off well. A reintroduction of 2008 financial crisis is concise and not just repetition of what's been said. While qualitative part of the book is coherent and heuristic, quantitative... Everything starts off well. A reintroduction of 2008 financial crisis is concise and not just repetition of what's been said. While qualitative part of the book is coherent and heuristic, quantitative formulas is killing me. So, skip those numerical expressions! (展开)
1 有用 檀 2019-02-05 20:51:13
biological reality VS rationality
0 有用 水月孤桥 2024-09-23 13:41:42 江苏
简体中译本至今还没有出版
0 有用 小南瓜 2022-03-07 09:21:02
Writing很棒條理清楚讀起來不累！