查理·芒格的投资思想 戴维·克拉克 81个笔记 ◆ 001 盲从 >> 随大流只会让你更靠近平均值。 Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. ◆ 002 预测 >> 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠准确的预测来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay the...
◆ 001 盲从
Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.
◆ 002 预测
I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there.
You have to be very patient, you have to wait until something comes along, which, at the price you're paying, is easy. That's contrary to human nature, just to sit there all day long doing nothing, waiting. It's easy for us, we have a lot of other things to do. But for an ordinary person, can you imagine just sitting for five years doing nothing? You don't feel active, you don't feel useful, so you do something stupid.
Successful investing requires this crazy combination of gumption and patience, and then being ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself, because in this world opportunities just don't last very long.
If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.
◆ 03 投资策略
◆ 025 所有权
View a stock as an ownership of the business and judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage.
When we bought See's Candy, we didn't know the power of a good brand. Over time, we just discovered that we could raise prices 10% a year and no one cared. Learning that changed Berkshire. It was really important.
◆ 051 技术的正反面
The great lesson in microeconomics is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you and when it's going to kill you.
Berkshire is in GM because one of our young men likes it. Warren, when he was a young man, got to do whatever he wanted to do, and that's the way it is. It is true GM may be protected by the federal government in the end, and it may be a good investment in the end, but the industry is as competitive as I've ever seen. Everyone can make good cars, they have the same suppliers, and cars last forever. It just has all these commoditized features. So I don't think the auto industry is the place to be.
At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn't cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.
People really thought that giving a predatory class of people the ability to do whatever they wanted was free-market enterprise. It wasn't. It was legalized armed robbery. And it was incredibly stupid.
Mortgage lending became a dirty way to make money. You take people that can't handle credit and try to make very high returns by abusing and encouraging their stupidity—that's not the way I want to make money in banking. You should try to make money by selling people things that are good for the customer.
I don't see how we bring back that age where an uneducated man can march ahead rapidly. As long as we have free trade and worldwide competition, and I don't want to stop having free trade with a big nuclear power like China. China and the United States have to get along. Each country would be out of its mind not to get along with the other. I think trade helps us to get along.
Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.
There's no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.
I think the attitude of Epictetus is the best. He thought that every missed chance in life was an opportunity to behave well, every missed chance in life was an opportunity to learn something, and that your duty was not to be submerged in self-pity, but to utilize the terrible blow in constructive fashion. That is a very good idea.
In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time—none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads—and how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out.
Warren is one of the best learning machines on this earth....Warren's investing skills have markedly increased since he turned 65. Having watched the whole process with Warren, I can report that if he had stopped with what he knew at earlier points, the record would be a pale shadow of what it is.
If you have enough sense to become a mental adult yourself, you can run rings around people smarter than you. Just pick up key ideas from all the disciplines, not just a few, and you're immensely wiser than they are.
I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up, and boy, does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.
◆ 103 专业化
Extreme specialization is the way to succeed. Most people are way better off specializing than trying to understand the world.
Most people are trained in one model—economics, for example—and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the sazing, "To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail." This is a dumb way of handling problems.
◆ 112 让自己配得上
The best way to get a good spouse is to deserve a good spouse.
◆ 113 理性
Being rational is a moral imperative. You should never be stupider than you need to be.
I have never succeeded very much in anything in which I was not very interested. If you can't somehow find yourself very interested in something, I don't think you'll succeed very much, even if you're fairly smart.
The highest form that civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust—not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another……In your own life what you want is a seamless web of deserved trust. And if your proposed marriage contract has forty-seven pages, I suggest you not enter.
Oh, it's just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism…. But wise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.
◆ 124 正直
Remember Louis Vincenti's rule: "Tell the truth, and you won't have to remember your lies."
◆ 127 坚强的意志
You should never, when faced with one unbelievable tragedy, let one tragedy increase into two or three because of a failure of will.
Life is always going to hurt some people in some ways and help others. There should be more willingness to take the blows of life as they fall. That's what manhood is, taking life as it falls. Not whining all the time and trying to fix it by whining.