Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks w...
Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
作者简介
· · · · · ·
Marko Papic
Partner & Chief Strategist
Clocktower Group
Marko is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.
Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Rese...
Marko is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.
Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012, the financial industry's first dedicated political analysis investment strategy. The GPS service generated geopolitical alpha by identifying gaps between the market's political expectations and the firm's forecasts. Marko was a Senior Vice President and the firm's Chief Geopolitical Strategist.
Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm's global geopolitical strategy as well as its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Marko holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia.
He is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future (Wiley 2020), a book that introduces his constraints-based framework to investors. He has lived in seven countries on three continents.
At the same time, I was expressly hired to be the firm's Europe analyst. Given Stratfor's roots in "Great Power geopolitics," my position was the equivalent of being the admiral of the Swiss Navy. Most of the all-hands meetings were about Tomahawks, car bombs, and jihad. I usually got to fight with the Africa analyst for the scraps left over by the Middle East, counterterrorism, and East Asia analysts. (查看原文)
In the battle of ideas, the Thatcher/Reagan supply-side - laissez-faire - won as decisive a victory over Mitterrand's demand-side - dirigisme - as one could imagine. Voters and policymakers across the developed world took note and adjusted behavior accordingly. (查看原文)
不知为何没标，是这个词条尸鬼转生了吗….anw感觉还是一个挺不错的analysis approach，毕竟不是人人都学国关，能在macro movement里找到赚钱的角度就行了，最后一章的framework值得复习。也许任何一个framework都没法完美cover这个世界的运行规律吧，总是有很多杂音和irrationalities（比如那个“Russia not able to do anyt...不知为何没标，是这个词条尸鬼转生了吗….anw感觉还是一个挺不错的analysis approach，毕竟不是人人都学国关，能在macro movement里找到赚钱的角度就行了，最后一章的framework值得复习。也许任何一个framework都没法完美cover这个世界的运行规律吧，总是有很多杂音和irrationalities（比如那个“Russia not able to do anything with EU‘s constraint”），当然也可能是因为这毕竟是个公开出版物，真正的alpha怎么可以公开呢（笑(展开)
柯里昂
0 有用 royalasshole 2022-06-23 09:18:13
所以还是选择跟随吧
0 有用 西芹炒豆干 2022-05-23 02:38:26
微博看到兰小欢推荐，看到了友邻的翻译版
6 有用 柯里昂 2021-08-25 20:38:14
喜欢这种塔勒布类型文风的投资者的书，躬身入局的投资人说话就是比拿着水晶杯的分析师们更真实和勇敢，没有既要又要的追求全面，而是现实性务实的表达了自己对地缘政治的个人认识和理解维度的出发点——约束决定政策偏好，后面的解释和预测也都与初始设定相互自洽，很有启发的一本书
0 有用 西布 2022-06-07 17:58:37
22-06-07：兰老师推荐。/基于约束而不是偏好的一种分析方法。印象深刻处：2015希腊危机，多极力量分析。
0 有用 白菜爱好者 2024-02-16 00:47:10 上海
3.5星
0 有用 豆泡儿 2024-05-04 18:27:31 澳大利亚
分析框架对于大部分人都无参考价值，而且任何一种框架对于变化急速的世界都显得过于简单和僵化，但是学到了蛮多东西，历史的眼界要扩宽了些。历史真的是好老师啊，从现状看很纷乱身临其中，隔着一段距离来看，好像就更有些意思了。
0 有用 psywar 2024-03-20 11:20:28 新加坡
不知为何没标，是这个词条尸鬼转生了吗….anw感觉还是一个挺不错的analysis approach，毕竟不是人人都学国关，能在macro movement里找到赚钱的角度就行了，最后一章的framework值得复习。也许任何一个framework都没法完美cover这个世界的运行规律吧，总是有很多杂音和irrationalities（比如那个“Russia not able to do anyt... 不知为何没标，是这个词条尸鬼转生了吗….anw感觉还是一个挺不错的analysis approach，毕竟不是人人都学国关，能在macro movement里找到赚钱的角度就行了，最后一章的framework值得复习。也许任何一个framework都没法完美cover这个世界的运行规律吧，总是有很多杂音和irrationalities（比如那个“Russia not able to do anything with EU‘s constraint”），当然也可能是因为这毕竟是个公开出版物，真正的alpha怎么可以公开呢（笑 (展开)
0 有用 白菜爱好者 2024-02-16 00:47:10 上海
3.5星
0 有用 谷钱钱 2024-01-18 23:18:05 上海
作者本身是策略师而非交易员，整本书不是没有启发，只是太过于强调地缘政治的影响力和权重，更何况有些逻辑作者自己也没打通，不能因为是原版书就过誉（当然这本书的框架格局还是大的），另外想吐槽的是，作者列举出的自己所谓“牛逼”的过往案例，看着有点像把自己一连串基于牛市的买入卖出记录，隐去中间瞎操作又没怎么赚钱的事实，只给人看最早买入和最后卖出的记录那样，创造出一个神话。最后结合作者自己说的写作时间，感觉这... 作者本身是策略师而非交易员，整本书不是没有启发，只是太过于强调地缘政治的影响力和权重，更何况有些逻辑作者自己也没打通，不能因为是原版书就过誉（当然这本书的框架格局还是大的），另外想吐槽的是，作者列举出的自己所谓“牛逼”的过往案例，看着有点像把自己一连串基于牛市的买入卖出记录，隐去中间瞎操作又没怎么赚钱的事实，只给人看最早买入和最后卖出的记录那样，创造出一个神话。最后结合作者自己说的写作时间，感觉这本书真的确实太水了，整本书的逻辑框架并不是那么好不说，其实主要就是在说影响事件走向的不是preferences而是constraints。 (展开)
0 有用 禅与脑维修艺术 2023-10-15 21:55:33 上海
部分idea有启发（注重决策者面临的约束而非偏好、注重中位数投票者等），但关于世界本身的结构/框架/认知更关键，读之前更期待这些内容，缺少的话书中“框架”显得有些空洞。可以用更简短的篇幅说清楚，比如一篇长twitter。