From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics.
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.
As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.
"[Harford] expertly guides us through the many ways in which data can trick us….Though numbers are at the core of The Data Detective, it’s emotion that wields … power, affecting not only how we respond to data but also how we absorb it in the first place." —The Wall Street Journal
"The Data Detective is sure to be another success from Harford, and is a powerful tool, especially in the current climate, one that will give readers the confidence to delve into data and statistics in a new and meaningful way." —Booklist
"One of the most wonderful collections of stories that I have read in a long time... fascinating." —Steve Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics
"Few people write about social science with the clarity and wit of Tim Harford. If you’re staggered by statistics or daunted by data, this entertaining romp of a book is essential reading.” —Daniel H. Pink, author of When and Drive
"Nobody makes the statistics of everyday life more fascinating and enjoyable than Tim Harford." —Bill Bryson, author of The Body
“Tim Harford is one of the finest writers of nonfiction. This is another brilliant read: wise, humane, and above all illuminating. Nobody is better on statistics and numbers – and how to make sense of them.” —Matthew Syed, author of Rebel Ideas
“An immensely enjoyable guide to using statistics. I loved it.” —Matt Parker, author of Humble Pi
“We are supremely lucky to have the fabulously readable, lucid, witty, and authoritative Tim Harford to remind us why fact, reason, numbers, clarity, and truth matter, how beautiful they are and how crucial to our understanding of the natural world and human society. Every politician and journalist should be made to read this book.” —Stephen Fry
"In The Data Detective, Tim Harford continues to amuse and instruct the reader with deceptively profound and broad statistical intuition and wisdom. He finds historical precedent for our modern mistakes that are delightful and enlightening and serve to make us hopeful rather than despairing about our future—a feat in itself." —Cathy O’Neil, author of Weapons of Math Destruction
"Thanks to Tim Harford's characteristic wit and magnetic storytelling, you may not realize you're getting an advanced course in how to understand the kind of statistics we're all faced with every day. The Data Detective is certainly a fun book to read, but it's also a genuinely important one." —David Epstein, author of Range
"Tim Harford is a brilliant guide to a world that we humans often find overwhelming and intimidating: the world of data. This entertaining, engrossing book about the power of numbers, logic, and genuine curiosity has, in Harford's own words, 'awakened my sense of wonder' about the beauty of statistics." —Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff
"Characteristic lucidity, concealed intellectual depths, wry humour—and a big unifying idea—from one of our finest economic and statistical communicators" —The Independent
1 有用 achievements 2021-06-10 18:19:34
• Someone may be trying to persuade you of something – which, sometimes, is quite all right. • Always be curious – look deeply for the facts and keep asking questions. • Memorize a few “landmark n... • Someone may be trying to persuade you of something – which, sometimes, is quite all right. • Always be curious – look deeply for the facts and keep asking questions. • Memorize a few “landmark numbers.” (展开)
0 有用 旧约克野马 2021-12-29 21:15:57
There is no cure for curiosity.
0 有用 conge 2023-04-17 14:06:32 美国
导言中作者说写这本书是为了反击Darrell Huff在《How to lie with statistics》中向公众传达的对统计学的不信任。书中给出11个建议试图帮助人们重建对统计学的信心。给出的11个建议非常中肯:人们在看数据的时候,要对那些支持自己观点的数据尤其要小心检查,在个体经验与数据不符的时候要多问为什么,面对数据要了解概念是怎么定义的,数据是怎么收集的,方法是怎么应用的。有的时候要... 导言中作者说写这本书是为了反击Darrell Huff在《How to lie with statistics》中向公众传达的对统计学的不信任。书中给出11个建议试图帮助人们重建对统计学的信心。给出的11个建议非常中肯:人们在看数据的时候,要对那些支持自己观点的数据尤其要小心检查,在个体经验与数据不符的时候要多问为什么,面对数据要了解概念是怎么定义的,数据是怎么收集的,方法是怎么应用的。有的时候要跳出集体情境看大局,了解背景知识,看看研究数据中缺失了什么。还应注意发表出的科学见解受到对正向结果的偏好,而科学的矫正需要时间。当证据变化时,要有个开放的心态去改变自己的想法。总是,就是要有对事实的好奇心。然而书中大量科学家犯错,政治家逼迫统计学家出假数字的例子,正好证明了统计非常容易被用作撒谎。 (展开)
1 有用 o` 2022-10-31 11:52:34 加拿大
和作者的成名作《卧底经济学家》比起来,这本书的“硬知识”很少。它关注的是没有受过统计学训练的普罗大众,如何用常识来防止自己被数字玩弄。
0 有用 beren 2022-10-31 17:29:00 广东
道理都知道,只是在业务里滚得太多了有时候会忘记,作者用一种很有趣的方法把道理讲了一遍,很多故事还是第一次读到,比如Darrell Huff真的会用统计学去欺骗,想想也不奇怪,毕竟统计学家和律师一样,也只是一种职业。