A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays ou...
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
Tom Chivers is an author and the award-winning science writer for Semafor. His writing has appeared in The Times (London), The Guardian, New Scientist, Wired, CNN, and more. His books include Everything Is Predictable, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy, and How to Read Numbers.
英文版 either the population you’re measuring has a normal 100 mean IQ, or it has a much higher 107 IQ—you’re much more likely to see a p-value of 0.04 under the null. It’s surprising, yes—but much moresurprising under your alternative hypothesis. 中文...
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汤姆·奇弗斯 作者
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3 有用 小小c 2024-09-17 11:00:26 广东
贝叶斯不是为了证明某个假设正确的可能，而是通过不断增加信息修正假设，想起之前看了Sarah Paine的访谈，不懂就说不懂、肯主动修正自己观点的学者难得
1 有用 霹雳大叔 2024-11-13 19:29:10 北京
很好的Bayes思维科普书，读完修正、精进了好几个概念。
0 有用 蜡笔童话 2024-12-24 01:54:43 美国
A beyesian perspective offers such a fun way to view the world!
0 有用 qwertyuiop123 2025-12-26 11:49:10 美国
不错的关于贝叶斯思维方式的叙述，结合了 Superforecasting, Probability Theory: the Logic of Science 的一些内容
1 有用 谢耳朵 2025-05-20 16:45:05 北京
出中文版了 《贝叶斯定理》