"There is terror in numbers," writes Darrell Huff in How to Lie with Statistics. And nowhere does this terror translate to blind acceptance of authority more than in the slippery world of averages, correlations, graphs, and trends. Huff sought to break through "the daze that follows the collision of statistics with the human mind" with this slim volume, first published in 1954....
"There is terror in numbers," writes Darrell Huff in How to Lie with Statistics. And nowhere does this terror translate to blind acceptance of authority more than in the slippery world of averages, correlations, graphs, and trends. Huff sought to break through "the daze that follows the collision of statistics with the human mind" with this slim volume, first published in 1954. The book remains relevant as a wake-up call for people unaccustomed to examining the endless flow of numbers pouring from Wall Street, Madison Avenue, and everywhere else someone has an axe to grind, a point to prove, or a product to sell. "The secret language of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify," warns Huff.
Although many of the examples used in the book are charmingly dated, the cautions are timeless. Statistics are rife with opportunities for misuse, from "gee-whiz graphs" that add nonexistent drama to trends, to "results" detached from their method and meaning, to statistics' ultimate bugaboo--faulty cause-and-effect reasoning. Huff's tone is tolerant and amused, but no-nonsense. Like a lecturing father, he expects you to learn something useful from the book, and start applying it every day. Never be a sucker again, he cries!
Even if you can't find a source of demonstrable bias, allow yourself some degree of skepticism about the results as long as there is a possibility of bias somewhere. There always is.
Read How to Lie with Statistics. Whether you encounter statistics at work, at school, or in advertising, you'll remember its simple lessons. Don't be terrorized by numbers, Huff implores. "The fact is that, despite its mathematical base, statistics is as much an art as it is a science." --Therese Littleton
Darrell Huff (July 15, 1913 – June 27, 2001) was an American writer, and is best known as the author of How to Lie with Statistics (1954), the best-selling statistics book of the second half of the twentieth century, and for his use of statistics as a tobacco lobbyist.
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1 有用 无能狂怒人 2016-12-05 05:59:53
批判性思维课程现在只讲日常论辩，缺的正是统计欺骗这部分。
7 有用 恶魔奶爸Sam 2016-07-26 15:38:03
此书甚好，可结合李世默的TED演讲一起看。最简单技巧就是只放出自己想让观众看到的一面，只给出这一个方面的数据，观众自己就会脑补出全貌，被引导得出谬论 @字润之
5 有用 20几岁就知道 2014-12-20 11:35:55
1954年的书，基本思想还是能看看，实在是启蒙书籍，连中位数，众数，平均数还要拿一个chapter来讲。大学本科或者现代人应该都了解。
0 有用 斯维尔 2009-10-09 10:26:52
半个世纪前的书
0 有用 卜平 2010-12-02 17:19:29
大二系主任讲的，lie, damned lie, and statistics，后来才知道是马克吐温干的。这本小册子写得挺诙谐的，也顺便传达了一些统计的基本问题和注意事项，推荐一下吧
0 有用 木風 2023-12-01 23:45:00 美国
雖然有些話顛來倒去的說，意思還是在那裡的。誰能料到八十年後的今天，還是這些問題。
0 有用 埃姆维霹 2023-06-22 15:58:00 北京
数据五问：who say so? how does he know? what's missing? did somebody change the subject? does it make sense?
0 有用 撒冷的乌凌 2023-04-04 23:50:01 美国
成书如此之早，却毫不过时。明明都讲的差不多的东西，这本书的简明有趣简直令人感动。
0 有用 章鱼喵是差分机 2023-01-13 07:39:22 德国
睡前读物，睡不着就读一下，终于读完了。挺好玩的，就是太初级了。 之前我给过一个 talk 使用不同模型得出相反结论，而且每个模型的结论都是统计上会“significant”. 还有一个工作中经常会犯的错误，就是忽略长尾分布的长尾，实验的时候模型太完美了，结果一上线疯狂亏钱。 我们有个经济学团队最近搞了一个模型，一直在吹牛说模型多好，结果最近他们发了一个模型总结，metrics 都不错，但咋一眼看... 睡前读物，睡不着就读一下，终于读完了。挺好玩的，就是太初级了。 之前我给过一个 talk 使用不同模型得出相反结论，而且每个模型的结论都是统计上会“significant”. 还有一个工作中经常会犯的错误，就是忽略长尾分布的长尾，实验的时候模型太完美了，结果一上线疯狂亏钱。 我们有个经济学团队最近搞了一个模型，一直在吹牛说模型多好，结果最近他们发了一个模型总结，metrics 都不错，但咋一眼看去预测和真值没啥关系啊，这就是另一个问题，就是故意挑好看的 metrics. 唉，有的人就是真的在 “lie with confidence” 啊。 (展开)
0 有用 pajamas走天下 2022-07-29 23:07:58
总结了一些常见的用统计学骗人的伎俩，例子有点老，不过精炼