格林厄姆在这里总结了七条选股原则,然后在下一章《Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor》进行了详细讲解,从题目看也看出,这七条是将给“保守的投资者”听的,但在本书中,就是指的散户投资者。
1、 Adequate size. 足够大的规模。
2、 A sufficiently strong financial condition. 足够强壮的财务状况。
3、 Continued dividends for at least the past 20 years. 至少连续20年的分红记录。
4、 No earnings deficit in the past ten years. 过去十年没有亏损记录。
5、 Ten-year growth of at least one-third in per-share earnings. 每股收益十年至少增长三分之一。
6、 Price of stock no more than 1.5 times net asset value. 市净率不超过1.5倍。
7、 Price no more than 15 times average earnings of the past three years. 过去三年市盈率不超过15倍。
在同花顺上把沪深两市A股按照动态市盈率从小到大排列,前十名有七个银行股,其中兴业银行4.07排第三,兴业市净率1.09。把兴业银行按照上述七条逐一对比,发现第1、4、5、6、7完全符合;第2条因为兴业资产负债率接近1,不符合2的标准,但是银行行业特点所致;第3条因为企业上市在2007年,上市至今连续6年分红,没有足够长的记录;第4条自上市没有亏损,但只有6年的记录。
在第361页中,作者讲到金融行业,说没有特别有效的投资方法,适合于工业和公共事业型的投资方法同样适用于银行等金融企业,但是,上述选股条件第2条如何解决,没有给出答案。
Most security analysts try to select the issues that will give the best account of themselves in the future, in terms chiefly of market action but considering also the development of earnings. We are frankly skeptical as to whether this can be done with satisfactory results. Our preference for the analyst's work would be rather that he should seek the exceptional or minority cases in which he can form a reasonably confident judgement that the price is well below value. 引自 A comparison of Eight Pairs of Companies
But note this important fact:"The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he could then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other person's mistakes of judgment.引自 第八章:The Investor and Market Fluctuations
The margin-of -safety idea becomes much more evident when we apply it to the field of undervalued or bargain securities. We have here, by definition, a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other. That difference is the safety margin. It is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck. The buyer of bargain issues places particular emphasis on the ability of the investment to withstand adverse developments. For in most such cases he has no real enthusiasm about the company
's prospects. True, if the prospects are definitely bad the investor will prefer to avoid the security no matter how low the price. But the field of undervalued issues is drawn from the many concerns - perhaps a majority of the total - for which the future appears neither distinctly promising nor distinctly unpromising. If these are bought on a bargain basis, even a moderate decline in the earning power need not prevent the investment from showing satisfactory results. The margin of safety will then have served its proper purpose.引自 第20章 投资的核心“安全边际”
As he does throughout the book, Graham is distinguishing speculation - or buying on the hope that a stock's price will keep going up - from investing, or buying on the basis of what the underlying business is worth.引自 第20章 投资的核心“安全边际”