390-Army of None-Paul Scharre-Military-2018

390-Army of None-Paul Scharre-Military-2018

Barack

2021/12/19

《Army of None》，首版于2018年。它广泛调查研究了自主武器的出现、禁止它们的运动以及围绕它们使用的法律和道德问题。它重点关注军事技术中的人工智能，涵盖了数十年的创新，从二战中德国寻声雷恩鱼雷（当今巡航导弹的前身）到自主网络武器、潜艇狩猎机器人船和机器人坦克军队。通过对国防专家、伦理学家、心理学家和活动家的采访，它调查了未来战场上“半人马战士”可能面临的挑战，这将结合人类和机器的认知。在过去的几十年里，我们取得了巨大的技术进步，但我们也看到了复杂自动化系统可能导致的可怕事故

Paul Scharre，是the Center for a New American Security的副总裁兼研究主任。他毕业于the Army’s Airborne, Ranger, and Sniper Schools。他拥有Washington University in St. Louis的物理学学士学位，政治经济学和公共政策硕士学位，King’s College London的战争研究博士学位。

Table of Contens

PART I / ROBOPOCALYPSE NOW

1THE COMING SWARM The Military Robotics Revolution

2THE TERMINATOR AND THE ROOMBA What Is Autonomy?

PART II / BUILDING THE TERMINATOR

4THE FUTURE BEING BUILT TODAY Autonomous Missiles, Drones, and Robot Swarms

5INSIDE THE PUZZLE PALACE Is the Pentagon Building Autonomous Weapons?

PART III / RUNAWAY GUN

9ROBOTS RUN AMOK Failure in Autonomous Systems

10COMMAND AND DECISION Can Autonomous Weapons Be Used Safely?

PART IV / FLASH WAR

13BOT VS. BOT An Arms Race in Speed

14THE INVISIBLE WAR Autonomy in Cyberspace

PART V / THE FIGHT TO BAN AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS

16ROBOTS ON TRIAL Autonomous Weapons and the Laws of War

17SOULLESS KILLERS The Morality of Autonomous Weapons

PART VI / AVERTING ARMAGEDDON: THE WEAPON OF POLICY

19CENTAUR WARFIGHTERS Humans + Machines

20THE POPE AND THE CROSSBOW The Mixed History of Arms Control

“I’ve traveled to Camp Roberts, California, to see researchers from the Naval Postgraduate School investigate something no one else in the world has ever done before: swarm warfare.”

当机器的自动化程度越来越高的时候，战争逐渐变成了一个烧钱游戏，降低士兵的牺牲肯定是一件好事。但是也意味着，这将使得有权发动战争的人对战争的态度可能变得不那么严肃了。

“The swarms’ behavior is driven by a simple algorithm called Greedy Shooter. Each drone will maneuver to get into a kill shot position against an enemy drone. A human must only choose the swarm behavior—wait, follow, attack, or land—and tell the swarm to start. After that, all of the swarm’s actions are totally autonomous.”

在简单的情况下，机器的自动化决策和行动，还是可预测的。但是当情况变得更复杂，产生的结果有可能超出设计者的意料，比如，意外地击杀平民。

“However, robots have one major disadvantage. By removing the human from the vehicle, they lose the most advanced cognitive processor on the planet: the human brain. Most military robots today are remotely controlled, or teleoperated, by humans; they depend on fragile communication links that can be jammed or disrupted by environmental conditions. Without these communications, robots can only perform simple tasks, and their capacity for autonomous operation is limited. The solution: more autonomy.”

更多的自主化给了机器人更多的可能性，这种可能性使得它能够发挥更大的作用。按照现在人工智能的发展趋势来看，21世纪的人工智能产业，可能会持续火热上几十年之久。

“For unmanned systems to fully realize their potential, they must be able to achieve a highly autonomous state of behavior and be able to interact with their surroundings. This advancement will require an ability to understand and adapt to their environment, and an ability to collaborate with other autonomous systems.”

要实现这些目的，就要依赖于国家强大的硬件和软件能力，也就需要高度现代化的工业基础做支撑。而想要有高端产业，必须有大量优秀的工科人才。美国今天的强大，与其对全世界的优秀人才的吸引力是分不开的。当美国的优秀移民减少时，或许美国的发展就没那么迅猛了。

“The Air Force prefers the term “remotely piloted aircraft” because that’s what today’s drones are. Pilots still fly the aircraft via stick and rudder input, just remotely from the ground, sometimes even half a world away.”

这些技术对于其他国家来说，要么太过高昂，难以承受；要么技术复杂，有待攻坚。目前大概只有美国有这样的经济实力和科技实力能做这么多的前沿研究。

“In 2013, the U.S. Navy successfully landed its X-47B prototype drone on a carrier at sea, autonomously. The only human input was the order to land; the actual flying was done by software. In 2014, the Navy’s Autonomous Aerial Cargo/Utility System (AACUS) helicopter autonomously scouted out an improvised landing area and executed a successful landing on its own. Then in 2015, the X-47B drone again made history by conducting the first autonomous aerial refueling, taking gas from another aircraft while in flight.”

自动化的机器人，不仅在军事等高端领域中广泛使用，它也在深刻地影响着普通人日常生活。我们可以推测，在21世纪结束时，人类社会的自动化程度可能远远超过刚进入21世纪时的人们的想象边界。

“This can begin to break the paradigm of humans manually controlling the robot, shifting humans into a supervisory role. Humans will command the robot what action to take, and it will execute the task on its own.”

在过去几百年的工业时代，人类的核心目标是，从人工执行任务，到操纵机器执行任务。而下一个阶段的目标，基本是让机器自己自主执行任务，而人类只起到监督的作用。

“Communication among elements of the swarm can occur through direct signaling, akin to an outfielder yelling “I got it!”; indirect methods such as co-observation, which is how schools of fish and herds of animals stay together; or by modifying the environment in a process called stigmergy, like ants leaving pheromones to mark a trail.”

交流对人类来说是重要的，同样的，通讯对机器来说也是重要的。交流的方式越先进，机器做的事情也就越多，它们也就能协作完成更复杂的任务。