2021年读过收获最大的一本书

假期开始读这本书，第一版是2001年出的，2018年再版，居然还没有中文翻译版。读进去才发现太有意思了，历史上的故事总是比我们想象的精彩，也一遍一遍重复着。读完估计还要一阵子，就把先按惯例做些摘要吧。

这本书我写了差不多四五篇摘要，实在是非常经典了。

The results confirmed what many value investors already knew. First, it is better to be in the market than out – over the long-term, world stock markets rise. Secondly, although on average a bull market is four times greater than bear markets, there is no set pattern that allows simple prediction of when a bull market will end.

总是在市场里要比空仓要好，毕竟牛市平均的涨幅是熊市的四倍。市场里混，错过牛市才是最可怕的。

The fact that while the patterns have not been identical in each case they have been very similar. First, a new invention is greeted with scepticism from incumbent technology and potential new investors. That scepticism is gradually replaced with enthusiasm, as businessmen come to appreciate the sales potential of the new technology. Soon, new entrants are flocking to the market, and venture capital funding is made available. Companies are started; almost all do well (in terms of share price) in the market on a tidal wave of enthusiasm. So far, so good; but as the technology begins to mature, a sense of realism sets in. Inevitably, for some, cash runs out. Companies begin to fold, only the strong survive and naive investors lose money in the huge rationalisation. Pessimism begins to pervade the marketplace and stock prices fall across the board. Eventually, the market stabilizes.

市场故事总是相似的，虽不完全一致。新发明总是先被怀疑，也不被投资人认可。慢慢地，这种怀疑随着企业家看到带来收入的巨大潜力而陆续消除，接着新进入者参与进来，VC也进来投资；早期企业出现，投资回报都不错，市场开始热起来；当技术逐步成熟，有人开始套现离场，但企业开始大量出现，仅强者能够生存，傻乎乎的投资人开始亏钱，悲观情绪上来，股价开始跌。最终市场再稳定下来。也就是：新事物出现，普遍怀疑不信——> 有人大胆尝试，看到前景 ——> 新企业和投资出现，发展不错———> 技术成熟，一大批人冲进来 ——> 发现没那么美好，开始下跌、亏钱——> 市场稳定下来。

Technology may have changed the world – but it has not changed human nature. The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s different’ ”. As Mark Twain said, history does not repeat itself exactly, but it rhymes.”

技术改变了世界，但并未改变人性。这正是上面规律的来源，也会继续运行下去。

Any technology that necessitates heavy capital expenditure and requires returns to be earned over an extended period is always going to be a high-risk undertaking – unless, that is, there is some form of protection against competition. This protection may take the form of patent, copyright, legal prohibition or simply fundamental competitive advantage (such as a superior cost curve).

任何需要开始时期大量资本投入后面陆续收回成本的技术都是极高风险的，需要许多保护来减少竞争，比如专利、版权、特许经营权，或者非常大的规模效应。非常简答单无比正确的商业常识。

铁路的故事

However, despite early problems with safety, the advance of the railways proved inexorable. The simple economics of their ability to shift large volumes of both passengers and freight at speeds much faster than horse-drawn coach traffic, and much more cheaply than canals, made theirexpansion assured.

While the economic power of the railways was obvious, and the technology quickly proven, the introduction of railways in Britain was not a simple or smooth process. Like canals before them, land had to be purchased and existing buildings cleared to allow tracks to be laid between existing urban centres. Compulsory purchase of land has always raised public hackles, and the early locomotives were noisy and dangerous.

The railways of Britain and America followed slightly different paths, but there were many similarities. In both cases their economic superiority caused the respective canal networks to gradually fall into disuse.

经济理性往往是最大的理由，安全并不是。铁路发展初期的安全问题更大，但最终决定其胜出的就是其难得的经济效益，这是真正决定性的——也是所谓“看不见的手”的市场的力量源泉。

同样的顾虑正在自动驾驶这个事情上发生，但也是势不可挡的。

更多的内容，可以在我的博客上继续读，http://www.yizhayan.org/wp/?p=1117