"Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? And does higher pay incentivize people to work harder? If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts ...
"Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? And does higher pay incentivize people to work harder? If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life-explanations that seem obvious once we know the answer-are less useful than they seem. Watts shows how commonsense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into thinking that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry. Only by understanding how and when common sense fails can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present-an argument that has important implications in politics, business, marketing, and even everyday life."
Historical explanations, in other words, are neither causal
explanations nor even really descriptions—at least not in the sense
that we imagine them to be. Rather, they are stories. As the
historian John Lewis Gaddis points out, they are stories that are
constrained by certain historical facts and other observable
evidence.12 Nevertheless, like a good story, historical explanations
concentrate on what’s interesting, downplaying multiple causes and
omitting all the things that might have happened but didn’t. As
with a good story, they enhance drama by focusing the action
around a few events and actors, thereby imbuing them with special
significance or meaning. And like good stories, good historical
explanations are also coherent, which means they tend to
emphasize simple, linear determinism... (查看原文)
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0 有用 楚灵 2020-05-19 14:35:40
听书
0 有用 王荣欣 2021-02-02 13:02:51
不够深入，讲实验的重要性，讲地方知识，但在研究中要如何运用，就语焉不详了。讲蒙拉丽莎的部分与《分析社会学牛津手册》第14.7节略有重复，再读已觉不新鲜。最后先列参考文献，后有全书的注释，令人困惑。