The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not.The...
The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not.The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.
作者简介
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Professor of Politics at New York University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Alastair Smith is Associate Professor in the Department of Politics at New York University.
Randolph M. Siverson is Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Davis.
James D. Morrow is Professor of Political Science and Senior Research Scie...
Leaders make three related sets of decisions. First, they choose a tax rate that generates government revenue and that influences how hard people work. Second, they spend the revenue raised in a manner designed to help keep incumbents in office, particularly by sustaining support among members of their winning coalition. Finally, they provide various mixes of public and private goods. Private benefits are distributed only to members of the winning coalition and diminish in value to individual coalition members as the size of the group expands. Consequently, as the size of the coalition increases, leaders are expected to shift their effort to the provision of public goods that benefit all in society. (查看原文)
We take as axiomatic that everyone in a position of authority wants to keep that authority and that it is the maneuvering to do so that is central to politics in any type of regime. When we say it is central, we mean that all actions taken by political leaders are intended by them to be compatible with their desire to retain power (Downs 1957; Black 1958; Wintrobe 1998). (查看原文)
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朱懋燊ℵ 朱懋眘
0 有用 9tyfahrenheit 2023-04-19 03:54:09 加拿大
亚左的一生
1 有用 kiyo 2021-08-18 04:39:05
最近一直在和朋友聊這個，尤其是selectorate theory，抱歉貢獻一個低分……書是好書，但有些東西我保持糾結，它可能滑入了一個我一直視為陷阱的分析漩渦之中，變成了一個過於結果導向的東西。比如掌權人需要取悅的關鍵參數winning coalition，Mesquita就僅僅將它牽制於能夠給予的財政支持/取悅範圍的人數大小，而長期的歷史/代際關系對偏好選擇的動搖和國家金融體系的內外債務（無論... 最近一直在和朋友聊這個，尤其是selectorate theory，抱歉貢獻一個低分……書是好書，但有些東西我保持糾結，它可能滑入了一個我一直視為陷阱的分析漩渦之中，變成了一個過於結果導向的東西。比如掌權人需要取悅的關鍵參數winning coalition，Mesquita就僅僅將它牽制於能夠給予的財政支持/取悅範圍的人數大小，而長期的歷史/代際關系對偏好選擇的動搖和國家金融體系的內外債務（無論是證券還是外債等等）甚至是政權變更的選舉人遊說成本和舊政權財政根基的博弈，這一系列變動都不在他考量的範圍內。Robert Jervis的研究作為Mesquita的補充閱讀非常有效，從群體認知對政治過程的影響出發對反駁過於結果導向的結果導向還挺一擊必殺。推薦對比閱讀 (展开)
0 有用 侯粉 2021-09-14 13:54:53
除了我自己以前的博导，最喜欢的学者就是BdM了。太阳底下无新鲜事，全是这本书的注脚而已。
0 有用 味像斋主人 2021-09-27 09:56:44
略了第二章三维政治部分。（独裁者手册原来是作者的通俗写作）
0 有用 summer 2016-09-30 13:11:36
不是书不好…是我对政治不感冒…也不是很懂里面的数据分析～略过了很多～觉得书里讲的好悲观啊…社会福利不过就是为了winning coalition 和leader的利益的副产品而已啊…民主说得再冠冕堂皇也不过是“不得不”的无奈选择？
0 有用 9tyfahrenheit 2023-04-19 03:54:09 加拿大
亚左的一生
0 有用 朱古力Coco 2022-06-06 00:34:57
Actually dying to read more empirical studies on authoritarianism survival / breakdown in this summer.
0 有用 Fernanda 2022-02-15 13:57:53
Impressive
0 有用 味像斋主人 2021-09-27 09:56:44
略了第二章三维政治部分。（独裁者手册原来是作者的通俗写作）
0 有用 侯粉 2021-09-14 13:54:53
除了我自己以前的博导，最喜欢的学者就是BdM了。太阳底下无新鲜事，全是这本书的注脚而已。