Preface
Introduction
1 Model I: The Rational Actor
A Rigorous Model of Action
A Rational Actor Paradigm
The Classical Model Illustrated
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Preface
Introduction
1 Model I: The Rational Actor
A Rigorous Model of Action
A Rational Actor Paradigm
The Classical Model Illustrated
Classical Realism. Neorealism (Structural Realism).
International Institutionalism. Liberalism. Strategy, War,
and Rational Choice.
Variants and Uses of the Classical Model
2 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A First Cut
Why Did the Soviet Union Decide to Place Offensive Missiles in
Cuba?
Hypothesis 1: Cuban Defense. Hypothesis 2: Cold War Politics.
Hypothesis 3: Missile Power. Hypothesis 4: Berlin——Win,
Trade, or Trap.
Why Did the United States Respond to the Missile Deployment
with a Blockade?
Alternative I: Do Nothing. Alternative 2: Diplomatic
Pressures. Alternative 3: A Secret Approach to Castro.
Alternative 4: Invasion. Alternative 5: Air Strike.
Alternative 6: Blockade.
Why Did the Soviet Union Withdraw the Missiles?
3 Model II: Organizational Behavior
Organizational Logic and Efficiency
Organizational Logic and Organizational Culture
Interactive Complexity
NASA: Hero and Goat
Organizational Behavior Paradigm
4 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Second Cut
Deployment of Soviet Missiles in Cuba
The Soviet Build-up in Detail. Organizational
Implementation.
Imposition of a U.S. Blockade of Cuba
Organizational Intelligence. Organizational Options.
Organizational Implementation.
The Withdrawal of Soviet Missiles from Cuba
5 Model III: Governmental Politics
The Governmental Politics Model Illustrated __
1. Separated Institutions Sharing Power. 2. The Power to
Persuade. 3. Bargaining According to the Processes. 4. Power
Equals Impact on Outcome. 5. Intranational and
International Relations.
Group Processes and Their Effects on Choices and Action
1. Better Decisions. 2. The "Agency" Problem: Principals,
Agents, and Players. 3. Participants: Who Plays? 4. Decision
Rules. 5. Framing Issues and Setting Agendas. 6. Groupthink.
7. Complexity of ]oint Action.
A Governmental Politics Paradigm
6 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Third Cut
The Imposition of a Blockade by the United States
The Politics of Discovery. The Politics of Choice.
Soviet Withdrawal of the Missiles from Cuba
Soviets Kill an American U-2 Pilot. The President and the
Chairman. The "Deal": Resolving the Turkish Problem.
The "Deal": Resolving the Cuban Problem.
7 Conclusion
Summing Up: Differences in Interpretation
Summing Up: Different Answers or Different Questions?
Where Do We Go from Here?
Index
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关于《决策的本质：还原古巴导弹危机的真相》 《决策的本质：还原古巴导弹危机的真相》（Essence of Decision：Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis）这本书是由哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长、教授，曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长的格雷厄姆·阿利森（GrahamT.Allison）...
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商务印书馆2015版
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商务印书馆2021版
蹲屎少女
商务印书馆2015版
0 有用 马伦戈 2020-12-24 21:06:12
给本书打五星是因为系统最高只有五星可打。或许我们都在不同的教科书或论文上反复读到对阿利森的外交决策三个模式的介绍，这三个模式也很容易理解，但还是请务必读一遍第二版的原著。本书资料之丰富，角度之多元，对现象准确而又独到的捕捉，都无愧于其“大经典”的名号。
0 有用 这么近，那么远 2021-05-18 15:50:30
“这是第二次世界大战后最有影响力的政治学著作之一。《决策的本质》原作以独特的视角审视了冷战时期的关键事件。此经典著作的第二版不仅仅是修订，更是重写：重新解释了古巴导弹危机前后的理论及事件；也融入了肯尼迪录音带及最近解密的苏联文件的信息。”
0 有用 。。。 2019-08-20 16:39:09
近距离体验导弹危机全过程。
0 有用 晓强 2020-02-26 06:15:08
运用三个模型来“cut”古巴导弹危机，理论和事实细节结合得很好。思维的模式和层次决定了我们会看到什么样的结果。2020.02.25
1 有用 之逸 2012-07-21 02:26:50
虐死我的论文~
0 有用 Czhihan🌈 2023-06-02 11:34:44 广东
只记得是我亲爱的作业。
0 有用 康斯坦丁 2022-11-22 23:22:21 亚美尼亚
从三个层次分析决策过程，很有启发。
0 有用 Anais 2022-03-12 16:28:45
没读明白，这也就是我研究生成绩差的原因了吧！
0 有用 韻。 2021-12-19 22:27:26
当决策者面临压力时，往往采用“自我安慰”来“消极回避”压力，这种做法包括夸大好的后果而淡化坏的结果，否认有不安感，一厢情愿地认为行动尚为时过早，淡化个人的责任等等。
0 有用 这么近，那么远 2021-05-18 15:50:30
“这是第二次世界大战后最有影响力的政治学著作之一。《决策的本质》原作以独特的视角审视了冷战时期的关键事件。此经典著作的第二版不仅仅是修订，更是重写：重新解释了古巴导弹危机前后的理论及事件；也融入了肯尼迪录音带及最近解密的苏联文件的信息。”