A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything abo...
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
作者简介
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纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb），一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家，又是经验主义者，又是理智的数理证券交易员，目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。
『I'd rather have the opinion of a trader than a mathematician.』 - 格林斯潘。 所谓黑天鹅，是指具备了以下三个特征的事件： － 不可预测，人们事前往往低估其发生的可能性 － 造成极大影响 － 事后回头再看，又觉得此事发生的有理 比如最近的金融危机，就是一次典型的...
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Jack
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0 有用 驻法大使曾小贤 2009-10-13 16:44:58
his view is unique,
0 有用 Soonsoon 2020-10-14 17:40:19
李笑来推荐
0 有用 娜塔 2020-01-16 02:59:14
为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。2018/1/6
0 有用 酸饼干 2018-01-06 11:47:28
为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。
0 有用 loop 2022-09-18 18:00:56 安徽
从Seneca 到 尼采蒙田，从休谟到波普尔到概率分布的哥德尔限制
0 有用 王尧 2024-05-03 21:27:09 北京
谢谢你，塔勒布
0 有用 loop 2022-09-18 18:00:56 安徽
从Seneca 到 尼采蒙田，从休谟到波普尔到概率分布的哥德尔限制
0 有用 Soonsoon 2020-10-14 17:40:19
李笑来推荐
0 有用 Flashing3 2020-02-14 23:32:04
Don't ask why a Black Swan appeared. Find what you can get from this black swan.
0 有用 娜塔 2020-01-16 02:59:14
为了作业强行读的一本书。有点为赋新词强说愁的感觉。2018/1/6