In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and ...
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book ...
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
人脑处理随机性的部分和处理情绪的部分有很大的关联。
做出和非确定性相关决策的时候，恐惧（fear）心理会被激活。
人脑在处理随机事件的时候，习惯去猜测其实不存在的出现模式（guess the pattern）。
右脑半球（“intuitive”）会更理性的按照出现频率进行猜测。
左脑半球（“logical”）会非理性的试图猜测模式。
Daniel Kahneman因为心理学（或者说行为经济学）的研究获得了2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。（这人也是《thinking fast and slow》的作者）
图书出版的例子显示很多后来的畅销书都曾经多次被退稿，J. K. Rowlings的《Harry Potter》被拒过9次。
在图书出版界，成功经常取决于随机性。
只要多尝试，成功的可能就越大。成功人士来自不轻易放弃之士（the set of people who don’t give up）
电影成功的例子说明人们的表现经常在均值附近波动（regression toward the mean）
普通人能够打破棒球记录的例子也说明了随机性的作用：众多的普通人中出现不普通的结果是很常见的（extraordinary events can happen without extraordinary causes）。 (查看原文)
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列纳德·蒙洛迪诺 作者
peterq
湖南科学技术出版社2010版
雪地里的水煮蛋
kangzi
湖南科学技术出版社2010版
0 有用 [已注销] 2012-04-25 10:30:27
神书
0 有用 小小耳朵 2017-03-15 09:39:51
读得有点吃力，很多数学和统计学内容要动脑子，期待读第二遍。
1 有用 shingeki 2021-12-26 11:48:24
有意思～里面的例子很有趣～ "If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate"
0 有用 多多钱少少 2018-01-11 20:54:43
新年读完的第一本书，说我们的生活其实是被偶然事件所统治，所有成功失败也没有看起来的那么理直气壮，有趣。
3 有用 WeirdFishes 2016-05-17 22:18:41
太不适合摸鱼看了，在研究室憋笑好痛苦…………其他人以为我看论文看到笑场，关心患者的目光.jpg/(ㄒoㄒ)/
0 有用 鼠斩车田万齐 2024-05-01 20:43:48 美国
想既重学一下概率又帮助人生决策，结果书的重点还是讲概率多人生启发少，大概也是因为自己本来就对随机性认知有过比较深的反思。书写得非常深入浅出，读起来有笑有泪。
0 有用 崔瑀🐨 2023-12-17 14:35:53 海南
“But ability does not guarantee achievement, nor is achieve-ment proportional to ability.”
0 有用 ZZ 2023-01-12 10:41:55 美国
一口氣看了前面一半，後來縂有書擠進來，結果空了一大段時間，再次撿起來已經把已經看得部分忘記得七七八八了。但是一看，立刻就看進去的。每一章節的開始，都是一個非常吸引人的小故事，然後通過這個小故事或者軼事，慢慢地引出作者想講述的論點。最終就是人生其實很多是偶然，但是不能因爲是偶然，我們就不做努力，因爲努力不一定有用，但是不努力是一定沒有用的。
0 有用 Le Flaneur 2022-08-31 23:11:11 上海
简易版本的《概率论与数理统计》，甚至连公式定理出场的顺序都差不多。但对于我这种数学不行的人来说还是有点吃力，读前半部分的时候还在想，要是大学时读到这本书，也许我的概统就不会挂了，等读到贝叶斯分析的时候，不得不承认当年概统老师挂我挂得很有道理。
1 有用 shingeki 2021-12-26 11:48:24
有意思～里面的例子很有趣～ "If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate"