The Wizard and the Prophet

迎接我們的，是浩劫還是永續？足以改寫人類存滅的矛盾之爭！

《1491：重寫哥倫布前的美洲歷史》、《1493：物種大交換丈量的世界史》作者查爾斯．

曼恩重整對立的生態理論，分析文明存續的關鍵課題

40年內，地球的人口將來到100億大關。環境能否負載？世界將變成什麼模樣？擅長以環境史思維挑戰讀者史觀的查爾斯．曼恩，以兩位20世紀科學家截然不同卻均攸關人類興亡的生態理論，釐清未來我們面臨的抉擇與困境。

威廉．發格特（William Vogt）的「先知派」–

在鳥類學家威廉．發格特的著作《生存之道》(Road to Survival)中，認為人類跟所有地球上的物種相同，地球給予的負載量是固定的。「先知派」的繼承者認為，除非我們承認並接受地球資源有限的事實，並嚴格限縮各種無窮盡的發展與繁衍，否則人類終將走向滅亡。

諾曼．布若格（Norman Borlaug）的「巫師派」–

綠色革命之父諾曼．博洛格研發的新型高產能小麥，有效地拯救了成千上萬的災民，遏止飢荒發生。「巫師派」的傳人認為，透過科技的輔佐，人類的繁榮將能無限延續。

曼恩分析了兩方分歧的觀點，評估關於人類面臨的四大挑戰—食物、水、能量與氣候變遷，結合各自的歷史背景，並衡量未來的選擇。在這人類文明的危急之秋，曼恩對於所有為了孩子日後將如何生存在日益擁擠的地球上的人，提供了重要並及時的指南。(文/博客來編譯)

From the best-selling, award-winning author of 1491 and 1493--an incisive portrait of the two little-known twentieth-century scientists, Norman Borlaug and William Vogt, whose diametrically opposed views shaped our ideas about the environment, laying the groundwork for how people in the twenty-first century will choose to live in tomorrow’s world.

In forty years, Earth’s population will reach ten billion. Can our world support that? What kind of world will it be? Those answering these questions generally fall into two deeply divided groups--Wizards and Prophets, as Charles Mann calls them in this balanced, authoritative, nonpolemical new book. The Prophets, he explains, follow William Vogt, a founding environmentalist who believed that in using more than our planet has to give, our prosperity will lead us to ruin. Cut back! was his mantra. Otherwise everyone will lose! The Wizards are the heirs of Norman Borlaug, whose research, in effect, wrangled the world in service to our species to produce modern high-yield crops that then saved millions from starvation. Innovate! was Borlaug’s cry. Only in that way can everyone win! Mann delves into these diverging viewpoints to assess the four great challenges humanity faces--food, water, energy, climate change--grounding each in historical context and weighing the options for the future. With our civilization on the line, the author’s insightful analysis is an essential addition to the urgent conversation about how our children will fare on an increasingly crowded Earth.

Review

“Mann's most spectacular accomplishment is to take no sides. Readers will thrill to the wizards' astounding advances and believe the prophets' gloomy forecasts, and they will also discover that technological miracles produce nasty side effects and that self-sacrifice, as prophets urge, has proven contrary to human nature. An insightful, highly significant account that makes no predictions but lays out the critical environmental problems already upon us.”—Kirkus starred review

"The contrast is stark—technological wizardry or romantic prophecy as a lens to view the future path for the planet and humanity. Charles Mann provides a deeply corrugated, richly nuanced, and highly entertaining narrative to make sense of the most consequential decisions facing civilization. Read, think, and enjoy." —Ruth deFries, author of The Big Ratchet: How Humanity Thrives in the Face of Natural Crisis

“Brilliantly conceived and executed, Charles Mann’s The Wizard and the Prophet is the book I have long awaited—thoughtful, balanced and unbiased—to understand the challenges that humanity will face as the twenty-first century progresses. Mann’s historical perspective provides the critically important context for us to understand how we got here and how we might solve the problems presented by a finite world of ten billion humans.” –Gary Taubes, author of The Case Against Sugar

“The Wizard and the Prophet is a fascinating portrait of two men who probably shaped your thinking about the future, whether you realize it or not. Charles Mann proves, once again, a masterful storyteller." – Elizabeth Kolbert, author of The Sixth Extinction

“A rich, elegant, ferociously readable study of our global quandary. Among the many excellent things Charles C. Mann does in The Wizard and the Prophet is give us a fresh, and wholly unexpected, way of understanding today’s political divide.” —Russell Shorto, author of Revolution Song

“A fascinating story of two forgotten men whose ideas changed our understanding of humanity’s place in nature. The Wizard and the Prophet is an intellectual history of the clash between techno-optimists and environmentalists, but it’s also the very personal story of two thinkers, Norman Borlaug and William Vogt. Mann offers a sympathetic, nuanced way to understand one of the fundamental debates of our time: How will 10 billion humans live sustainably on Earth, when our demands for energy and food are growing? This book showcases an important new kind of futurism, which looks to the past to understand how we'll survive. Never preachy nor dogmatic, Mann asks his readers to do the most difficult thing possible: choose a path to a better world, by consulting your own conscience.” —Annalee Newitz, editor, Ars Technica