出版社: Princeton University Press
副标题: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
出版年: 2009-9
页数: 512
定价: GBP 24.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9780691142166
内容简介 · · · · · ·
The authors use copious amounts of data ... to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and ...
The authors use copious amounts of data ... to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for. -- Devin Leonard New York Times Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong... This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come... This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history. -- Edward Chancellor Wall Street Journal Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart ... know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective. -- Brett Arends Wall Street Journal [E]ssential reading ... both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals. Economist The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again... The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work. -- Martin Wolf Financial Times Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well. -- Greg Ip Washington Post [A] fine new history of financial debacles. -- Daniel Gross Newsweek Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years... The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience. -- James Pressley Bloomberg News Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquent statement... Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job in putting together statistics on government debt--a task that economic historians should have done long ago but shied away from because of the difficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex and multi-layered. -- Harold James The American Interest Unlike prior narrative accounts of market panics from such finance writers as Charles Kindleberger and Edward Chancellor, Reinhart and Rogoff give us a data-driven study that is global in sweep but also a model of clarity. The authors package their notably nonhysterical analysis of the latest crisis in a large, self-contained section of the book inviting harried readers to skip right ahead to it. -- Daniel Akst CNNMoney.com A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries over the past 800 years, the book identifies pre-crisis patterns that recur with eerie consistency. This Time is Different is a must-read for anyone on the lookout for canaries in coal mines. Barron's This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year. -- Arnold Kling Econlog.com Rogoff and Reinhart ... provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles. Arkansas Business [A] valuable new book. Idaho Statesman Having studied mountains of economic data during the past eight centuries, the authors insightfully point out the highly repetitive nature of financial crises resulted from a dangerous mix of hubris, euphoria and amnesia. Shanghai Daily
作者简介 · · · · · ·
卡门 M. 莱因哈特
(Carmen M. Reinhart)
马里兰大学经济学教授。与人共同主编了《21世纪首次全球金融危机》一书,经常为国际货币基金组织和世界银行授课。
肯尼斯•罗格夫
(Kenneth S. Rogoff)
哈佛大学经济学教授、Thomas D. Cabot公共政策教授。《国际宏观经济学基础》的作者之一,美国国家公共广播、《华尔街日报》和《金融时报》特约评论员。
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This Time Is Different的书评 · · · · · · ( 全部 23 条 )
组织和个人在繁荣时总是一再过度负债,而不考虑当衰退时的风险
这篇书评可能有关键情节透露
“确切无疑的是,国家、银行、企业和个人在好年景时总是一再过度负债,而不考虑当衰退不可避免来临时会出现什么风险” 01 — 量化分析八百年来的金融危机,比较专业,我这样的外行看前言和绪论还凑乎,后面比较费力了。 两位作者命名了一种“这次不一样”综合征,至少现代社会... (展开)> 更多书评 23篇
论坛 · · · · · ·
This Time Is Different | 来自kaleilasi | 2010-10-12 22:29:22 |
这本书的其他版本 · · · · · · ( 全部10 )
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机械工业出版社 (2012)6.9分 538人读过
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机械工业出版社 (2010)7.3分 285人读过
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机械工业出版社 (2020)暂无评分 10人读过
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Princeton University Press (2011)暂无评分 4人读过
在哪儿借这本书 · · · · · ·
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谁读这本书? · · · · · ·
二手市场
· · · · · ·
订阅关于This Time Is Different的评论:
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0 有用 Hildy at beach 2022-01-02 13:46:56
开头还行,后面重复太多太啰嗦,一半的篇幅就能讲清楚。 让各国把数据公开,这个很够呛啊,美国第一个不同意。
0 有用 澳洲文化野人 2010-08-06 15:36:03
很强大的关于金融危机的书。书刚出来的时候看过一遍,当时对这个书里面的预言有点将信将疑。现在重新看,佩服两位作者的预见能力。
0 有用 独角毛球 2020-08-04 12:35:43
不太适合听的书,需要经常看图表。但内容还是很好的。无论纵向还是横向比较,盲目自信和健忘都会让我们不断滴重复这个错误的认识。
2 有用 宝宝TWO 2015-04-19 08:46:27
好题目,但定量本来就走错了路
0 有用 K2 2010-10-09 20:12:26
学术书,里面的全球房价跌势表可看看。
0 有用 Hildy at beach 2022-01-02 13:46:56
开头还行,后面重复太多太啰嗦,一半的篇幅就能讲清楚。 让各国把数据公开,这个很够呛啊,美国第一个不同意。
0 有用 炼金法师学徒 2021-04-15 10:10:37
速读了这本书,讲了 各种各样的 金融危机, 但是没什么 逻辑上的论证,如果不是那种对 数字 敏感到一定程度的人,读了估计也没什么意思
0 有用 Jun 2020-12-20 00:12:24
基本就是美国顶级的经济学家引用大量文献反思美帝过度制度自信导致了金融危机
0 有用 独角毛球 2020-08-04 12:35:43
不太适合听的书,需要经常看图表。但内容还是很好的。无论纵向还是横向比较,盲目自信和健忘都会让我们不断滴重复这个错误的认识。
0 有用 编织机GT 2018-07-13 23:06:27
1. 系统性地介绍了5种不同的危机,以及各自的来源,和历史上的例子; 2. 孤立的系统不会发生危机,危机的破坏性来源于 a. 全球化带来的连锁效应; b. 分工链条带来的循环放大效应; c. 政策执行者避重就轻,带来叠加效应。 3. 普遍认为高负债国家可以通过增长降低负债率水平,但是过去200年中只有1个国家完成了这个目标。 4. 现代央行确实拥有一些强大的工具,可以在控制通胀的同时,... 1. 系统性地介绍了5种不同的危机,以及各自的来源,和历史上的例子; 2. 孤立的系统不会发生危机,危机的破坏性来源于 a. 全球化带来的连锁效应; b. 分工链条带来的循环放大效应; c. 政策执行者避重就轻,带来叠加效应。 3. 普遍认为高负债国家可以通过增长降低负债率水平,但是过去200年中只有1个国家完成了这个目标。 4. 现代央行确实拥有一些强大的工具,可以在控制通胀的同时,稳定发行货币。但这样真的能够避免危机的发生吗? (展开)