出版社: Penguin Press HC, The
副标题: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't
出版年: 2012-9-27
页数: 544
定价: USD 27.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9781594204111
内容简介 · · · · · ·
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.co...
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
作者简介 · · · · · ·
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
目录 · · · · · ·
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
· · · · · · (更多)
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515
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> 更多书评 68篇
-
Sugarcube (Kill my dream, kill my love)
Like the moment when, exactly thirteen seconds into “Love Will Tear Us Apart,” the synthesizer overpowers the guitar riff, leaving rock and roll in its dust. JD乐迷啊!2014-10-08 01:13
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========== #39-40 feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales. ========== #49-50 Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed. ========== #59-61 It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wa...
2020-07-20 16:49
========== #39-40
feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales.
========== #49-50
Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.
========== #59-61
It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wade through huge masses of data, there is still a human there to do the analysis and consider whether there is plausible causality.
========== #62-64
in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.
========== #71-72
collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.
========== #86-87
history shows that recessions caused by a financial crash usually make unemployment rates stay high for four to six years
========== #128-129
one fund did well in a particular year, it was no more likely than the others to beat its competition in the following year.
========== #142-143
price/earnings, or P/E ratio, of stocks: the market price per share divided by the total annual earnings of the company per share.
========== #143-144
In the long run, the P/E ratio of the entire market tends to be around 15.
========== #148-149
even when they see a bubble is forming, they keep buying and reaping bonuses as the market soars. When the crash does eventually happen, they’ll only have lost their company’s and their clients money, not their own.
========== #150-151
In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs,
========== #175-179
Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are. Clauset’s curve clearly indicates that an attack on the 9/11 scale happens roughly once every eighty years, so the government should have been open to this possibility.
回应 2020-07-20 16:49 -
80-20 rule. The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level. Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge. The poker game for him initially, was easy...
2020-05-10 02:44
80-20 rule.
The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level.
Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge.
The poker game for him initially, was easy. When the poker bubble broke, the weak players were gone. Thus, “the water level has risen, and some of the sharks turned into suckers.”
As an emperical matter, success is a result of hard work and luck, in other words a combination of signal and noise. E.g. play well and win, play well and lose, play badly and lose, and play badly and win. Therefore, dont take success for granted; focus as much as I can on self-improvement.
回应 2020-05-10 02:44
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Introduction People cannot stop make mistake, the best thing is to not repeat it. People always intend to interpret data in a way they'd like to hear and they usually make sure that it has a happy ending. Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. Why prediction fails? Our naive trust in models,...
2013-03-14 14:27
Introduction People cannot stop make mistake, the best thing is to not repeat it. People always intend to interpret data in a way they'd like to hear and they usually make sure that it has a happy ending. Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. Why prediction fails? Our naive trust in models, and our failure to realize how fragile they were to our choice of assumption. Human are wired to detect patterns and respond to opportunities and threats without much hesitation. This may lead to fake patterns.
回应 2013-03-14 14:27 -
看过了很多书评和浏览了内容,决定不看了,里面没有有组织的观点和深度,感觉是给大众写的通俗读物。 主要特点:1. 通俗易懂;2. 各种例子;3. Argue说Bayesian inference是个好的预测方式;4. 指出很多时候人们过分相信自己能够准确预测,其实不能。 下面是一个应该比较客观的书评的一部分,是Amazon上面一个叫做Sitting in Seattle的网友写的: “Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job i...
2013-05-26 12:39
看过了很多书评和浏览了内容,决定不看了,里面没有有组织的观点和深度,感觉是给大众写的通俗读物。 主要特点:1. 通俗易懂;2. 各种例子;3. Argue说Bayesian inference是个好的预测方式;4. 指出很多时候人们过分相信自己能够准确预测,其实不能。 下面是一个应该比较客观的书评的一部分,是Amazon上面一个叫做Sitting in Seattle的网友写的: “Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls. The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.”
回应 2013-05-26 12:39 -
2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure. 2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were 2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of p...
2018-06-11 04:19
2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure.
2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were
2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of physics or biology, however, electoral forecasting resembles something like poker: we can observe our opponent’s behavior and pick up a few clues, but we can’t see his cards. Making the most of that
2014-12-02 17:50:38 limited information requires a willingness to update one’s forecast as newer and better information becomes available. It is the alternative—failing to change our forecast because we risk embarrassment by doing so—that reveals a lack of courage.
2014-12-05 08:26:34 A prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Kyoto, Japan, on June 28
2014-12-05 08:26:42 Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a longer time scale: there is a 60 percent chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next thirty years.
2014-12-07 11:15:12 . I suspect that epidemiologists, and others in the medical community, understand this because of their adherence to the Hippocratic oath. Primum non nocere: First, do no harm.
2014-12-07 12:34:03 So Voulgaris is not just looking for patterns. Finding
2014-12-07 12:34:15 patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that’s what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent noise or signal.
2014-12-09 10:44:01 What you see is a graph that consists of effort on one axis and accuracy on the other. You could label the axes differently—for instance, experience on the one hand and skill on the other. But the same general idea holds. By effort or experience I mean the amount of money, time, or critical thinking that you are willing to devote toward a predictive problem. By accuracy or skill I mean how reliable the predictions will prove to be in the real world.
2014-12-10 09:51:50 the worst forecaster takes the “prize.” This is known as the “winner’s curse.”
2014-12-11 00:45:12 [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do
2014-12-11 00:45:19 not know we don’t know.—Donald Rumsfeld21
回应 2018-06-11 04:19 -
彻 (心要有所方向)
Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome. We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view. It as...2015-12-05 10:51
Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome. We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view. It asserts, rather, that a belief in the objective truth- and a commitment to pursuing it- is the first prerequisite of making better predictions. The forecaster's next commitment is to realize that she perceives it imperfectly. Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality. Bayes's theorem. We must become very comfortable with probability and uncertainty. There is no denying that this is a detailed book- in part because that is often where the devil lies, and in part because my view is that a certain amount of immersion in a topic will provide disproportionately more insight than an executive summary. We think we want information when we really want knowledge.
回应 2015-12-05 10:51
-
========== #39-40 feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales. ========== #49-50 Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed. ========== #59-61 It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wa...
2020-07-20 16:49
========== #39-40
feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales.
========== #49-50
Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.
========== #59-61
It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wade through huge masses of data, there is still a human there to do the analysis and consider whether there is plausible causality.
========== #62-64
in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.
========== #71-72
collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.
========== #86-87
history shows that recessions caused by a financial crash usually make unemployment rates stay high for four to six years
========== #128-129
one fund did well in a particular year, it was no more likely than the others to beat its competition in the following year.
========== #142-143
price/earnings, or P/E ratio, of stocks: the market price per share divided by the total annual earnings of the company per share.
========== #143-144
In the long run, the P/E ratio of the entire market tends to be around 15.
========== #148-149
even when they see a bubble is forming, they keep buying and reaping bonuses as the market soars. When the crash does eventually happen, they’ll only have lost their company’s and their clients money, not their own.
========== #150-151
In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs,
========== #175-179
Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are. Clauset’s curve clearly indicates that an attack on the 9/11 scale happens roughly once every eighty years, so the government should have been open to this possibility.
回应 2020-07-20 16:49 -
80-20 rule. The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level. Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge. The poker game for him initially, was easy...
2020-05-10 02:44
80-20 rule.
The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level.
Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge.
The poker game for him initially, was easy. When the poker bubble broke, the weak players were gone. Thus, “the water level has risen, and some of the sharks turned into suckers.”
As an emperical matter, success is a result of hard work and luck, in other words a combination of signal and noise. E.g. play well and win, play well and lose, play badly and lose, and play badly and win. Therefore, dont take success for granted; focus as much as I can on self-improvement.
回应 2020-05-10 02:44 -
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist) - 您在位置 #39-40的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午8:55:00 feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales. ========== The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist) - 您在位置 #49-50的标注 | ...
2019-12-31 11:57
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #39-40的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午8:55:00
feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #49-50的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午8:58:03
Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #59-61的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午9:01:21
It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wade through huge masses of data, there is still a human there to do the analysis and consider whether there is plausible causality.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #62-64的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午9:01:35
in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #71-72的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月11日星期四 上午8:56:44
collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #86-87的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月11日星期四 上午9:00:12
history shows that recessions caused by a financial crash usually make unemployment rates stay high for four to six years
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #128-129的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月12日星期五 上午9:57:36
one fund did well in a particular year, it was no more likely than the others to beat its competition in the following year.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #142-143的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:09:18
price/earnings, or P/E ratio, of stocks: the market price per share divided by the total annual earnings of the company per share.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #143-144的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:09:30
In the long run, the P/E ratio of the entire market tends to be around 15.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #148-149的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:10:40
even when they see a bubble is forming, they keep buying and reaping bonuses as the market soars. When the crash does eventually happen, they’ll only have lost their company’s and their clients money, not their own.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #150-151的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:11:13
In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs,
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #175-178的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:16:25
Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are.
==========
The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)
- 您在位置 #175-179的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:16:49
Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are. Clauset’s curve clearly indicates that an attack on the 9/11 scale happens roughly once every eighty years, so the government should have been open to this possibility.
回应 2019-12-31 11:57
论坛 · · · · · ·
【有奖互动】《信号与噪声》中文版即将上市 | 来自中信出版集团 | 1 回应 | 2013-08-02 |
全新书转让 | 来自目送飞鸿 | 2013-02-24 | |
找到两本“The Signal and the Noise” | 来自孔明 | 2012-12-11 |
这本书的其他版本 · · · · · · ( 全部5 )
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中信出版社 (2013)7.1分 1490人读过
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全场一本包邮
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三采文化 (2013)8.0分 28人读过
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Penguin Books (2015)暂无评分 10人读过
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1 有用 到哪里都是主场 2013-03-27
这书主要说两件事儿:一是要多用贝叶斯概率预测,二是一般人就别玩扑克赌钱了。
0 有用 Ann 2020-07-14
看热闹的书?不是给经济学人看的吧
1 有用 坏人C 2014-11-04
竟然是FiveThirtyEight创始人写的
0 有用 泥粥 2013-11-29
要正面解决问题 不逃避问题 所以患上数据毒...立刻找中文版看看 看看有没有接地气儿
0 有用 davekozg 2014-02-26
其实一般了
0 有用 hannahnah 2020-12-31
看了前三章后面读不下去了…理工记者对的文字这么难读的嘛 还是我水平没到 我晕
0 有用 品焕 2020-10-28
这作家在2016年大声说希拉里会当总统特朗普会输。。。结果。。。
0 有用 你爹不是秦始皇 2020-09-29
这是我幻想中最希望自己能写出来的书。关于数据统计,经济,赌博,政治,体育,灾害。似乎是科普但超脱于科普,让我在洗澡的时候突然想起某个片段,突然的哇奥一下,感到预测这件事本身的玄妙和美。
0 有用 宅 2020-08-07
Cases都挺有意思的 不愧是搞过名预测项目的人。 时常要用这个来提醒自己建模的时候不要被noises带偏了大方向。
0 有用 Jokr-z 2020-07-16
Audiobook