出版社: Penguin Press HC, The
副标题: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't
出版年: 2012-9-27
页数: 544
定价: USD 27.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9781594204111
内容简介 · · · · · ·
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.co...
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
作者简介 · · · · · ·
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
目录 · · · · · ·
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
· · · · · · (更多)
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515
· · · · · · (收起)
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The Signal and the Noise的书评 · · · · · · ( 全部 73 条 )
《信号与噪声》的信号与噪声
这篇书评可能有关键情节透露
本作虽然在欧美书市广受赞誉,然而,我读完后的最大感受却是——盛名之下,其实难副。差评。 本作题为《信号与噪声》,内中阐述了从海量的大数据(噪声)中甄选有用信息(信号)进行预测的相关内容。巧(fěng)合(cì)的是,本作的内容本身也恰恰谙合了这个题目。 我们来... (展开)> 更多书评 73篇
论坛 · · · · · ·
【有奖互动】《信号与噪声》中文版即将上市 | 来自中信出版文艺生 | 1 回应 | 2013-08-02 11:20:55 |
全新书转让 | 来自目送飞鸿 | 2013-02-24 13:56:03 | |
找到两本“The Signal and the Noise” | 来自孔明 | 2012-12-11 17:32:41 |
这本书的其他版本 · · · · · · ( 全部5 )
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订阅关于The Signal and the Noise的评论:
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0 有用 Fantasy 2016-06-19 07:24:52
应该只有我一个人是当八卦书看的吧。Long live the great Haralabob!
0 有用 Ann 2020-07-14 20:34:24
看热闹的书?不是给经济学人看的吧
0 有用 胡串 2012-12-07 05:15:44
角度还算独特,对普及几角旮旯的知识有价值。 抱负宏大,试图覆盖几乎所有重要领域。 有些章节写的吃力零碎干涩。 作者曾经是专业德州扑克玩家,后来玩棒球和政治预测,声名鹤起。
0 有用 whatever 2015-04-02 12:59:11
四星半,除了把频率学派和贝叶斯学派的区别搅得巨乱之外没什么槽点
0 有用 蝉 2013-11-06 18:42:02
:O212.5/S587
0 有用 巴山夜雨⟳ 2024-02-03 07:03:13 美国
FiveThirtyEight
0 有用 Atro 2023-06-10 00:54:04 塞浦路斯
Some interesting anecdotes. The biggest takeaway is to think “probabilistically” and not to be an absolutist. (半弃跳读捐)
0 有用 幻家👭 2023-04-22 14:29:33 美国
教授介绍的,需要写一个paper,所以正在阅读中。我知道他最开始是靠预测baseball,但我真的对baseball没兴趣啊😭🤦🏻♀️
0 有用 momo 2021-08-11 14:12:42
不错的教科书
0 有用 hannahnah 2020-12-31 03:32:37
看了前三章后面读不下去了…理工记者对的文字这么难读的嘛 还是我水平没到 我晕