The Signal and the Noise

========== #39-40

feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales.

========== #49-50

Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.

========== #59-61

It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wade through huge masses of data, there is still a human there to do the analysis and consider whether there is plausible causality.

========== #62-64

in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.

========== #71-72

collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.

========== #86-87

history shows that recessions caused by a financial crash usually make unemployment rates stay high for four to six years

========== #128-129

one fund did well in a particular year, it was no more likely than the others to beat its competition in the following year.

========== #142-143

price/earnings, or P/E ratio, of stocks: the market price per share divided by the total annual earnings of the company per share.

========== #143-144

In the long run, the P/E ratio of the entire market tends to be around 15.

========== #148-149

even when they see a bubble is forming, they keep buying and reaping bonuses as the market soars. When the crash does eventually happen, they’ll only have lost their company’s and their clients money, not their own.

========== #150-151

In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs,

========== #175-179

Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are. Clauset’s curve clearly indicates that an attack on the 9/11 scale happens roughly once every eighty years, so the government should have been open to this possibility.

Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

80-20 rule.

The greatest 20% have to work harder than most people. It is way harder to make progress to in increase from 80 to above, than from 0 to 80.We see the top 20%, which is the tip of the iceburg supported by a vast amount of effort beneath the water level.

Nate Silver recommended start where the water level is low to build up and have an edge.

The poker game for him initially, was easy. When the poker bubble broke, the weak players were gone. Thus, “the water level has risen, and some of the sharks turned into suckers.”

As an emperical matter, success is a result of hard work and luck, in other words a combination of signal and noise. E.g. play well and win, play well and lose, play badly and lose, and play badly and win. Therefore, dont take success for granted; focus as much as I can on self-improvement.

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #39-40的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午8:55:00

feedback loops. When businesses have increased sales, it spurs them to hire more workers. This then gives those workers more disposable income, which increases consumption and further boosts sales.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #49-50的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午8:58:03

Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #59-61的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午9:01:21

It is therefore crucial that, even if we use technology to wade through huge masses of data, there is still a human there to do the analysis and consider whether there is plausible causality.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #62-64的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月10日星期三 上午9:01:35

in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #71-72的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月11日星期四 上午8:56:44

collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.

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The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #86-87的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月11日星期四 上午9:00:12

history shows that recessions caused by a financial crash usually make unemployment rates stay high for four to six years

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The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #128-129的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月12日星期五 上午9:57:36

one fund did well in a particular year, it was no more likely than the others to beat its competition in the following year.

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The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #142-143的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:09:18

price/earnings, or P/E ratio, of stocks: the market price per share divided by the total annual earnings of the company per share.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #143-144的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:09:30

In the long run, the P/E ratio of the entire market tends to be around 15.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #148-149的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:10:40

even when they see a bubble is forming, they keep buying and reaping bonuses as the market soars. When the crash does eventually happen, they’ll only have lost their company’s and their clients money, not their own.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #150-151的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:11:13

In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs,

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The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #175-178的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:16:25

Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are.

==========

The Signal and the Noise by Blinkist (Blinkist)

- 您在位置 #175-179的标注 | 添加于 2019年4月15日星期一 上午9:16:49

Because data indicates that such attacks are actually to be expected: the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks follows a pattern known as Clauset’s curve. Basically, when attacks are grouped together based on how many fatalities they caused and then their frequency is plotted, we see a very predictable double-logarithmic curve where attacks become less frequent the more devastating they are. Clauset’s curve clearly indicates that an attack on the 9/11 scale happens roughly once every eighty years, so the government should have been open to this possibility.