Name: The Signal and the Noise
ISBN: 9781594204111

作者: Nate Silver
出版社: Penguin Press HC, The
副标题: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't
出版年: 2012-9-27
页数: 544
定价: USD 27.95
装帧: Hardcover
ISBN: 9781594204111

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内容简介 · · · · · ·

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."

—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.co...

(展开全部)

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."

—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

作者简介 · · · · · ·

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.

目录 · · · · · ·

Introduction 1
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
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The Signal and the Noise的书评 · · · · · · ( 全部 63 条 )

数据狐狸的信号与噪声

“狐狸知道许多事情，刺猬却知道一件大事”。以赛亚·伯林在古希腊诗歌的影响下写下了著名的文章《刺猬与狐狸》。在这篇文章中，伯林区分了两类知识分子：刺猬用一个观点统摄对世界的认识，另一类狐狸，则承认种种无法统一的经验，拒绝仅仅一个观点。这个经典的比喻影响了很多... (展开)

3 12回应

我非衣 2013-10-14 13:02:55 中信出版社2013版

大数据时代的点球成金

“大数据时代”应该算得上新近的热词了，我们每个人都在讨论大数据、讨论云计算，但问题是，为什么网络的戾气还是这么重呢？《信号与噪声》给出的答案是，信息太多了。作为反乌托邦小说，《美丽新世界》和《一九八四》一直被当做信息处理的两种相反的手段，前者是信息泛滥以至... (展开)

3 0回应

只是虚名而已 2013-08-17 11:33:27 中信出版社2013版

预测的艺术

在我们日常的生活中，我们时时都是进行预测。然而大多数个人的预测都是带有个人的偏见和立场的，这种预测的精度甚至不如一群乌合之众预测的平均值。人类最大的预测市场，就是股市和体育，所有的人都希望在这样的市场一试身手，体现自己少有的天赋。不过大多数都会铩羽而归，... (展开)

1 3回应

庄常飞 2013-03-05 10:30:07

Nate Silver的霸气大作

在奥巴马成功连任总统之前，美国几乎所有重要的刊物和评论员都认为，奥巴马和罗姆尼在伯仲之间，各有五成的胜算。此时，《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的作家Nate Silver却给出了不同的答案：Silver一直坚持奥巴马的胜算在七成左右。 Silver的这一论点让其他评论员对其群起... (展开)

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鲁客 2013-09-19 11:44:43 中信出版社2013版

流于肤浅

读了几页就感觉到了作者的思维方式和角度非同凡响，越读越觉得有兴趣。但是越读，越觉得食之无味。涉及到的方面特别多，但是没有一块是深入讲如何鉴别信号与噪声的。都是一些流于肤浅的方面。个人建议作者可以抓住其中的一方面和一个领域，进行深入剖析和讲解即可成为一本特好... (展开)

10 12回应

狼王哈士奇 2013-04-15 11:30:22

如何做出正确的预测

Nate Silver如今俨然美国权威的政治观察分析家。这位纽约时报（New York Times）广受关注的政治选举预测分析博客FiveThirtyEight 的作者，准确预测了2012美国总统大选所有50个州的结果，超越了自己在2008年总统大选中49个州结果预测正确的记录。但是如果Silver也出错了呢？恐怕... (展开)

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kalashnikov 2014-06-08 15:57:38 中信出版社2013版

《信号与噪声》书评

这篇书评可能有关键情节透露

一句话：看得有点累，也没有全看懂。 > 人类最初的信息技术革命并非始于微型芯片的发明，而是以印刷机的诞生为开端的。1440年，约翰内斯·古腾堡发明了印刷机，这项发明使普通民众能方便地了解信息，由此产生的思想洪流带来了前所未有的结果和影响。 ![图](./Screenshot 2014... (展开)

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Cyberpunk 2013-11-29 09:41:39 中信出版社2013版

柠檬市场，一个典型的次级品市场

如果有人在市场上竭力向你推销一款你完全不了解的产品，你就该想到他们在向你推销一个柠檬了。乔治·阿克尔洛夫凭借对信息不对称市场的研究获得了2001年诺贝尔经济学奖。你在生活当中常常会陷入各种不同的柠檬市场中。比如有人会突然问你＂你听说过安利吗？＂安利的所有产品构... (展开)

6 7回应

竹光侍 2014-01-23 19:32:45 中信出版社2013版

为什么人们的预测水平一直原地踏步

神算子、神奇小子、来自未来的人……只要数一下纳特西尔弗身上的头衔，你就会明白——人们对于预言家的狂热崇拜自古至今从来没有消退过。在原始巫术被科学的烛火驱逐出境之后，预言家们又披上了科学的外衣卷土重来——在普通人眼中，现代科技早已复杂到与巫术无异。就拿两次... (展开)

1 0回应

左思 2013-09-01 18:06:19 中信出版社2013版

从噪声中寻求信号：游离于主观和客观之间的贝叶斯思维

我们在生活中，经常碰到各种预测：股票技术人员天天预测各种股票的涨跌；谢国忠天天预测房价必跌，他几十年如一日的坚持，总有一天会对的；所谓的房地产“砖家”预测25年后北京的房价能够达到每平方米80万，这不是不可能发生，除非发生严重的通货膨胀吧；某地震局用狗来协助地... (展开)

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第700页

Sugarcube (Kill my dream, kill my love)

Like the moment when, exactly thirteen seconds into “Love Will Tear Us Apart,” the synthesizer overpowers the guitar riff, leaving rock and roll in its dust. JD乐迷啊！
2014-10-08 01:13

Like the moment when, exactly thirteen seconds into “Love Will Tear Us Apart,” the synthesizer overpowers the guitar riff, leaving rock and roll in its dust.
JD乐迷啊！

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回应 2014-10-08 01:13
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zhifeige

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure. 2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were 2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of p...
2018-06-11 04:19

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure.
2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were
2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of physics or biology, however, electoral forecasting resembles something like poker: we can observe our opponent’s behavior and pick up a few clues, but we can’t see his cards. Making the most of that
2014-12-02 17:50:38 limited information requires a willingness to update one’s forecast as newer and better information becomes available. It is the alternative—failing to change our forecast because we risk embarrassment by doing so—that reveals a lack of courage.
2014-12-05 08:26:34 A prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Kyoto, Japan, on June 28
2014-12-05 08:26:42 Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a longer time scale: there is a 60 percent chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next thirty years.
2014-12-07 11:15:12 . I suspect that epidemiologists, and others in the medical community, understand this because of their adherence to the Hippocratic oath. Primum non nocere: First, do no harm.
2014-12-07 12:34:03 So Voulgaris is not just looking for patterns. Finding
2014-12-07 12:34:15 patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that’s what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent noise or signal.
2014-12-09 10:44:01 What you see is a graph that consists of effort on one axis and accuracy on the other. You could label the axes differently—for instance, experience on the one hand and skill on the other. But the same general idea holds. By effort or experience I mean the amount of money, time, or critical thinking that you are willing to devote toward a predictive problem. By accuracy or skill I mean how reliable the predictions will prove to be in the real world.
2014-12-10 09:51:50 the worst forecaster takes the “prize.” This is known as the “winner’s curse.”
2014-12-11 00:45:12 [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do
2014-12-11 00:45:19 not know we don’t know.—Donald Rumsfeld21

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回应 2018-06-11 04:19
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Doite

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2018-03-25 12:01

Third test, content...

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回应 2018-03-25 12:01
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Paramātmā (啊，哈，舍不得璀璨俗世)

最失败的预测通常有很多共同点，即我们只关注那些符合我们对这个世界的期许的信息，而不在乎其真实性。对于那些最难测定的风险，即使它们严重威胁到我们的幸福生活，我们也会对其视而不见。我们所作的各种预估和假设要比现实状况简单得多。即使在解决问题时绕不开不确定性，我们也会刻意地回避它。
2017-08-05 16:44

最失败的预测通常有很多共同点，即我们只关注那些符合我们对这个世界的期许的信息，而不在乎其真实性。对于那些最难测定的风险，即使它们严重威胁到我们的幸福生活，我们也会对其视而不见。我们所作的各种预估和假设要比现实状况简单得多。即使在解决问题时绕不开不确定性，我们也会刻意地回避它。

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回应 2017-08-05 16:44

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少年游

Introduction People cannot stop make mistake, the best thing is to not repeat it. People always intend to interpret data in a way they'd like to hear and they usually make sure that it has a happy ending. Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. Why prediction fails? Our naive trust in model...
2013-03-14 14:27

Introduction
People cannot stop make mistake, the best thing is to not repeat it.
People always intend to interpret data in a way they'd like to hear and they usually make sure that it has a happy ending.
Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty. We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Why prediction fails? Our naive trust in models, and our failure to realize how fragile they were to our choice of assumption.
Human are wired to detect patterns and respond to opportunities and threats without much hesitation. This may lead to fake patterns.

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回应 2013-03-14 14:27
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lightsky

　　看过了很多书评和浏览了内容，决定不看了，里面没有有组织的观点和深度，感觉是给大众写的通俗读物。　　主要特点：1. 通俗易懂；2. 各种例子；3. Argue说Bayesian inference是个好的预测方式；4. 指出很多时候人们过分相信自己能够准确预测，其实不能。　　下面是一个应该比较客观的书评的一部分，是Amazon上面一个叫做Sitting in Seattle的网友写的：　　“Longer review: I'm an applied business researc...
2013-05-26 12:39

　　看过了很多书评和浏览了内容，决定不看了，里面没有有组织的观点和深度，感觉是给大众写的通俗读物。
　　
　　主要特点：1. 通俗易懂；2. 各种例子；3. Argue说Bayesian inference是个好的预测方式；4. 指出很多时候人们过分相信自己能够准确预测，其实不能。
　　
　　下面是一个应该比较客观的书评的一部分，是Amazon上面一个叫做Sitting in Seattle的网友写的：
　　
　　“Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls.
　　
　　The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.”

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回应 2013-05-26 12:39
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zhifeige

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure. 2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were 2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of p...
2018-06-11 04:19

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure.
2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were
2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of physics or biology, however, electoral forecasting resembles something like poker: we can observe our opponent’s behavior and pick up a few clues, but we can’t see his cards. Making the most of that
2014-12-02 17:50:38 limited information requires a willingness to update one’s forecast as newer and better information becomes available. It is the alternative—failing to change our forecast because we risk embarrassment by doing so—that reveals a lack of courage.
2014-12-05 08:26:34 A prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Kyoto, Japan, on June 28
2014-12-05 08:26:42 Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a longer time scale: there is a 60 percent chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next thirty years.
2014-12-07 11:15:12 . I suspect that epidemiologists, and others in the medical community, understand this because of their adherence to the Hippocratic oath. Primum non nocere: First, do no harm.
2014-12-07 12:34:03 So Voulgaris is not just looking for patterns. Finding
2014-12-07 12:34:15 patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that’s what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent noise or signal.
2014-12-09 10:44:01 What you see is a graph that consists of effort on one axis and accuracy on the other. You could label the axes differently—for instance, experience on the one hand and skill on the other. But the same general idea holds. By effort or experience I mean the amount of money, time, or critical thinking that you are willing to devote toward a predictive problem. By accuracy or skill I mean how reliable the predictions will prove to be in the real world.
2014-12-10 09:51:50 the worst forecaster takes the “prize.” This is known as the “winner’s curse.”
2014-12-11 00:45:12 [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do
2014-12-11 00:45:19 not know we don’t know.—Donald Rumsfeld21

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回应 2018-06-11 04:19
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彻 (心要有所方向)

Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome. We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view. It...
2015-12-05 10:51

Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome.
We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.
It asserts, rather, that a belief in the objective truth- and a commitment to pursuing it- is the first prerequisite of making better predictions. The forecaster's next commitment is to realize that she perceives it imperfectly.
Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality.
Bayes's theorem. We must become very comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
There is no denying that this is a detailed book- in part because that is often where the devil lies, and in part because my view is that a certain amount of immersion in a topic will provide disproportionately more insight than an executive summary.
We think we want information when we really want knowledge.

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回应 2015-12-05 10:51

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zhifeige

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure. 2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were 2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of p...
2018-06-11 04:19

2014-12-01 10:38:55 Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure.
2014-12-01 10:39:51 The alchemy that the ratings agencies performed was to spin uncertainty into what looked and felt like risk. They took highly novel securities, subject to an enormous amount of systemic uncertainty, and claimed the ability to quantify just how risky they were
2014-12-02 17:50:34 Instead of physics or biology, however, electoral forecasting resembles something like poker: we can observe our opponent’s behavior and pick up a few clues, but we can’t see his cards. Making the most of that
2014-12-02 17:50:38 limited information requires a willingness to update one’s forecast as newer and better information becomes available. It is the alternative—failing to change our forecast because we risk embarrassment by doing so—that reveals a lack of courage.
2014-12-05 08:26:34 A prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Kyoto, Japan, on June 28
2014-12-05 08:26:42 Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a longer time scale: there is a 60 percent chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next thirty years.
2014-12-07 11:15:12 . I suspect that epidemiologists, and others in the medical community, understand this because of their adherence to the Hippocratic oath. Primum non nocere: First, do no harm.
2014-12-07 12:34:03 So Voulgaris is not just looking for patterns. Finding
2014-12-07 12:34:15 patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that’s what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent noise or signal.
2014-12-09 10:44:01 What you see is a graph that consists of effort on one axis and accuracy on the other. You could label the axes differently—for instance, experience on the one hand and skill on the other. But the same general idea holds. By effort or experience I mean the amount of money, time, or critical thinking that you are willing to devote toward a predictive problem. By accuracy or skill I mean how reliable the predictions will prove to be in the real world.
2014-12-10 09:51:50 the worst forecaster takes the “prize.” This is known as the “winner’s curse.”
2014-12-11 00:45:12 [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do
2014-12-11 00:45:19 not know we don’t know.—Donald Rumsfeld21

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Third test, content...

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Paramātmā (啊，哈，舍不得璀璨俗世)

最失败的预测通常有很多共同点，即我们只关注那些符合我们对这个世界的期许的信息，而不在乎其真实性。对于那些最难测定的风险，即使它们严重威胁到我们的幸福生活，我们也会对其视而不见。我们所作的各种预估和假设要比现实状况简单得多。即使在解决问题时绕不开不确定性，我们也会刻意地回避它。
2017-08-05 16:44

最失败的预测通常有很多共同点，即我们只关注那些符合我们对这个世界的期许的信息，而不在乎其真实性。对于那些最难测定的风险，即使它们严重威胁到我们的幸福生活，我们也会对其视而不见。我们所作的各种预估和假设要比现实状况简单得多。即使在解决问题时绕不开不确定性，我们也会刻意地回避它。

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回应 2017-08-05 16:44
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彻 (心要有所方向)

Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome. We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view. It...
2015-12-05 10:51

Prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed- and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome.
We will never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.
It asserts, rather, that a belief in the objective truth- and a commitment to pursuing it- is the first prerequisite of making better predictions. The forecaster's next commitment is to realize that she perceives it imperfectly.
Prediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality.
Bayes's theorem. We must become very comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
There is no denying that this is a detailed book- in part because that is often where the devil lies, and in part because my view is that a certain amount of immersion in a topic will provide disproportionately more insight than an executive summary.
We think we want information when we really want knowledge.

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回应 2015-12-05 10:51

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