作者:
Annie Duke 出版社: Portfolio 副标题: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts 出版年: 2018-2-6 页数: 256 定价: USD 26.00 装帧: Hardcover ISBN: 9780735216358
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really th...
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
作者简介
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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
a truthseeking charter:
1) focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truthseeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness within the group;
2) accountability, for which members have advance notice; and
accountability is a willingness or obligation to answer for our actions or beliefs to others.
3) Openness to a diversity of ideas
Calibration requires an open-minded consideration of diverse points of view and alternative hypotheses.
Accuracy, accountability and diversity wrapped into a group's charter all contribute to better decision-making, especially if the group promotes thinking in bets.
The only way to gain knowledge and approach truth is by examining every variety of opinion.
Several ways to communicate to maximize our ability to engage in a truthseeking way with a... (查看原文)
Last book of the year, no major insights except keep repeating the same points — distinguish between luck and skill and incorporating opposing opinions..
有一些不错的决策时或日常面对问题时对调整心态有利的点。最重要的takeaway是avoid resulting and mindful of all the biases that exist, 聪明人有时反而更容易被这些bias所困。但对于本身对认知bias有了解的读者可能没那么惊艳。翻来翻去长篇大论地描述同一个点也影响阅读体验。作者是专业德扑玩家，不过可惜在书里涉及到德扑的例子却并不多。
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0 有用 Jimmy47 2022-08-07 12:08:29
万维刚精英日课2解读 扑克比象棋更像是真实世界中的决策 —— 你的决策水平高低并不能完全决定决策结果的好坏。扑克的本质是赌博，但真实世界的很多决策也是赌博。 人的大脑非常不善于处理不确定的信息。职业扑克选手要提高水平，就必须战胜头脑中各种认知偏误。为此，一个高手必须能够区分以下这些东西 —— * 运气和技艺 * 信号和噪音 * 决策水平和决策带来的结果 这种决策能力是人的一个修炼。决策... 万维刚精英日课2解读 扑克比象棋更像是真实世界中的决策 —— 你的决策水平高低并不能完全决定决策结果的好坏。扑克的本质是赌博，但真实世界的很多决策也是赌博。 人的大脑非常不善于处理不确定的信息。职业扑克选手要提高水平，就必须战胜头脑中各种认知偏误。为此，一个高手必须能够区分以下这些东西 —— * 运气和技艺 * 信号和噪音 * 决策水平和决策带来的结果 这种决策能力是人的一个修炼。决策高手和普通人有气质和境界上的差异。从这个意义上说炒股和打扑克能磨练你的性格，改变你的人生观。 (展开)
0 有用 surviveinsh 2022-01-27 14:37:16
英文版3.5/5。 解决了我的一大困境，之前如果我碰到这种不确定情况的选择，无论怎么选择我都是不踏实的，我可能会推迟选择，非要找出一个大概率的选择或者转化成确定情况下的选择。这本书从根上解决了这个问题，生活中的所有选择都是bet，都是赌。
0 有用 lenciel 2023-11-24 17:00:36 美国
下赌注包含两件事，决策和运气，因此它在整体上更接近于生活的真相。
0 有用 叶子 2022-01-01 04:51:30
Last book of the year, no major insights except keep repeating the same points — distinguish between luck and skill and incorporating opposing opinions..
0 有用 heizi 2019-01-08 17:31:39
思想资源上溯到密尔的《论自由》，也综合了近年来行为经济学的研究成果。因为不确定，因为能力和运气交织影响结果，所以得用打牌下赌注的概率思维来考虑如何决策。既要从积极的结果倒推需要采取的步骤，也要预见到光明前途中的困难，做好应对准备。感觉跟中国谚语中的一些人生智慧不谋而合。
0 有用 berryline 2024-03-26 23:16:04 美国
作者本身的经历很有意思，全书的主要概念就是probabilitistic thinking
0 有用 Yuzu酱 2024-03-03 14:04:43 美国
只有前36页有价值。我学到了分离decision making与results。
0 有用 Violet 2024-02-17 17:51:26 中国香港
有一些不错的决策时或日常面对问题时对调整心态有利的点。最重要的takeaway是avoid resulting and mindful of all the biases that exist, 聪明人有时反而更容易被这些bias所困。但对于本身对认知bias有了解的读者可能没那么惊艳。翻来翻去长篇大论地描述同一个点也影响阅读体验。作者是专业德扑玩家，不过可惜在书里涉及到德扑的例子却并不多。
0 有用 KevinY 2023-12-18 09:55:35 上海
Howard Marks 推荐的就拿来看了，读了1/3发现作者有点啰嗦。
0 有用 lenciel 2023-11-24 17:00:36 美国
下赌注包含两件事，决策和运气，因此它在整体上更接近于生活的真相。