"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
作者简介
· · · · · ·
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationship...
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.
目录
· · · · · ·
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
· · · · · ·
(更多)
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. (查看原文)
通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧...通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧条和次贷危机进行了非常详细的解读，可以感觉出来Ray对次贷危机后美联储和财政部的应对措施极其欣赏。附录介绍的宏观审慎政策工具，本质就是指导信贷局部调整，其中一条Changing accounting rules on different assets，这就是20天前人民银行重启的“逆周期因子”吧。。(展开)
去年下半年，有幸跟全国较为优秀的出版集团中信和全球较为优秀的对冲基金桥水合作（此表述符合《新广告法》规定），参与桥水创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises一书的翻译。时隔数月，中文名定为《债务危机》的一书终得出版，今年3月在京...
(展开)
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
2018-09-16 21:15:273人喜欢
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate.引自 Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
2019-04-01 11:45:542人喜欢
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth.引自 Part 2: US Debt Crisis and Adjustment
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
2019-04-08 03:03:091人喜欢
Definitions from Investopedia
Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period.
interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's interest coverage ratio is only 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
The central bank is generally able to bring the economy out of a recession by easing rates to stimulate the cycle anew. ..Because people push it- they have in inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. As a result, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes. This creates the long-term debt cycle引自 The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of persp...
2021-11-29 00:59:02
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of perspectives, and 3) they are perceived as the fairest, which fosters social stability.
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
2019-04-08 03:03:091人喜欢
Definitions from Investopedia
Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period.
interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's interest coverage ratio is only 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
The central bank is generally able to bring the economy out of a recession by easing rates to stimulate the cycle anew. ..Because people push it- they have in inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. As a result, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes. This creates the long-term debt cycle引自 The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
2019-08-08 19:25:25
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting domestic industries...they attract capital from abroad as a country's financial assets become cheaper in global currency terms.引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
THe export industry also thrived, unemployed declined, and as real wages remianed low, business profitability improved...
This was also hope that by encouraging exports and discouraging imports, the mark's decline would be a one-off and would help bring the German balance of payments into equilibrium...引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
《凡尔赛条约》后，为弥补经济上巨大损失，德国采用贬值马克的策略，促进出口和本国企业，逐步缓解收支平衡，负面影响是膨胀率高，市民手中的马克大量贬值。接下来，德国的政策制定者开始处理本国财政问题 (domestic debt burden and the fiscal deficit)
To reduce the deficit, and raise revenues to meet debt liabilities, a comprehensive tax-reform was proposed by finance minister MAtthias Erzberger... The package would transfer from the "haves to the "have-nots" by levying highly progressive taxes on income and tax...Dr. Friedrich Bendixen, who argued that "every effort to collect the monstrous sum through taxes will weaken our productivity and thus reduce receipts and drive the Reich to economic collapse"引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
2018-09-16 21:15:273人喜欢
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate.引自 Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
2019-04-01 11:45:542人喜欢
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth.引自 Part 2: US Debt Crisis and Adjustment
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of persp...
2021-11-29 00:59:02
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of perspectives, and 3) they are perceived as the fairest, which fosters social stability.
换句话说就是，只要印出来的钱都是拿来还债，扩大生产，消费了，就没问题；可是如果印出来的钱已经没处可去，开始“park the money”的时候，那就是印钱真的印出通胀的时候了。 People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won’t if it offsets falling credit and the deflationary forces are balanced with this reflationary force. That’s not a theory—it’s been repeatedly proven out in history... By...
2021-11-28 09:37:32
换句话说就是，只要印出来的钱都是拿来还债，扩大生产，消费了，就没问题；可是如果印出来的钱已经没处可去，开始“park the money”的时候，那就是印钱真的印出通胀的时候了。
People ask if printing money will raise inflation. It won’t if it offsets falling credit and the deflationary forces are balanced with this reflationary force. That’s not a theory—it’s been repeatedly proven out in history... By “printing money,” the central bank can make up for the disappearance of credit with an increase in the amount of money. Traditional economists see that as the velocity of money declining, but it’s nothing of the sort. What is happening at such times is that credit destruction is being offset by money creation. If the balance between replacing credit and actively stimulating the economy is right, this isn’t inflationary.引自 -The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
之前听Ray自己说过，Do the Right Thing not the Easy Thing；那时候我总觉得，money printing 不就是easy but not right thing么？现在才知道，其实在这么复杂的系统里，可能就没有什么 right thing，除非天地不仁，万物刍狗，大家一起痛苦十几年来解决问题。可是，最终人们只能活几十年，没有人愿意让自己的一生都用来还债，而换取下一代人的幸福生活 --- 当然，或许有些国家有些政权真的能做到这一点，无非是连哄带骗呗，不过这又是另一个故事了。
In the end, policy makers always print. That is because austerity causes more pain than benefit, big restructurings wipe out too much wealth too fast, and transfers of wealth from haves to have-nots don’t happen in sufficient size without revolutions.引自 -The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
所以说，PE Ratio什么的都太有迷惑性了，当你看着现在还那么吸引人的PE的时候，有可能下一次的Earnings Call就会给你惊喜。毕竟，Price天天update，Earning四个月你才会知道一次。 In the early stages of a bubble bursting, when stock prices fall and earnings have not yet declined, people mistakenly judge the decline to be a buying opportunity and find stocks cheap in relation to both past earnings and expec...
In the early stages of a bubble bursting, when stock prices fall and earnings have not yet declined, people mistakenly judge the decline to be a buying opportunity and find stocks cheap in relation to both past earnings and expected earnings, failing to account for the amount of decline in earnings that is likely to result from what’s to come.引自 -The Top 21
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
2019-08-08 19:25:25
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting domestic industries...they attract capital from abroad as a country's financial assets become cheaper in global currency terms.引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
THe export industry also thrived, unemployed declined, and as real wages remianed low, business profitability improved...
This was also hope that by encouraging exports and discouraging imports, the mark's decline would be a one-off and would help bring the German balance of payments into equilibrium...引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
《凡尔赛条约》后，为弥补经济上巨大损失，德国采用贬值马克的策略，促进出口和本国企业，逐步缓解收支平衡，负面影响是膨胀率高，市民手中的马克大量贬值。接下来，德国的政策制定者开始处理本国财政问题 (domestic debt burden and the fiscal deficit)
To reduce the deficit, and raise revenues to meet debt liabilities, a comprehensive tax-reform was proposed by finance minister MAtthias Erzberger... The package would transfer from the "haves to the "have-nots" by levying highly progressive taxes on income and tax...Dr. Friedrich Bendixen, who argued that "every effort to collect the monstrous sum through taxes will weaken our productivity and thus reduce receipts and drive the Reich to economic collapse"引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
翻译赵灿
中信出版社2019版
我是卢俊
中信出版社2019版
主治医生
中信出版社2019版
子珂
Andy Chan
November Media Publishing & Consulting Firm2018版
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...![[已软注销]](https://img9.doubanio.com/icon/u15067564-31.jpg)
One timeless and universal truth that I saw go back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius who lived around 500 BCE, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of persp...
0 有用 NEVER4U 2018-11-13 20:28:36
Type of books only Dalio can write
1 有用 旬阿 2019-03-15 12:18:53
后面的广告有点出戏……
16 有用 指上弹冰 2018-09-16 16:25:21
通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧... 通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧条和次贷危机进行了非常详细的解读，可以感觉出来Ray对次贷危机后美联储和财政部的应对措施极其欣赏。附录介绍的宏观审慎政策工具，本质就是指导信贷局部调整，其中一条Changing accounting rules on different assets，这就是20天前人民银行重启的“逆周期因子”吧。。 (展开)
1 有用 周游雪场 2019-06-15 14:27:22
魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史，竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面，dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了，在危机时放水时必须的，货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议，比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家，比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训，这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下，这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下，... 魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史，竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面，dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了，在危机时放水时必须的，货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议，比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家，比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训，这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下，这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下，无法回复。但他整理的历史也侧面说明了，在真实世界里，做“正确的放水决定”是很困难的，政策执行人常常会反复，所以一旦进入危机周期，每一次不彻底的政策带来的部分反弹，都难掩整体的下行趋势。 (展开)
0 有用 长风 2018-11-26 11:11:52
关于宏观经济和货币政策。逻辑清晰，信息量很大，值得再读
0 有用 JZ 2022-05-01 07:42:32
神书。最为佩服的是08年次贷危机的后续发展基本被Bridgewater的Daily Observations预测正确了
0 有用 聚变电站狐 2022-04-16 00:14:29
尽管后面实例的部分没看进去，本经济学小白还是很受启发的。不错！
0 有用 蛋吉吉 2022-04-01 19:04:47
part1不错，part2的三个case study, 非常非常好。part 3 估计个个都能写很长，总结的比较水。
1 有用 虎子 2021-11-29 02:47:23
只有第一章细细看过，后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感：总的来说，大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的，而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命（想象一下，如果我能活一千年，那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想）。在这个基础上，所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下，个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个c... 只有第一章细细看过，后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感：总的来说，大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的，而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命（想象一下，如果我能活一千年，那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想）。在这个基础上，所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下，个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期，而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。 (展开)
0 有用 不靠谱青年小麦 2021-11-01 04:05:46
佐证了cash is trash