"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
作者简介
· · · · · ·
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationship...
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.
目录
· · · · · ·
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
· · · · · ·
(更多)
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. (查看原文)
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. (查看原文)
通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧...通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧条和次贷危机进行了非常详细的解读，可以感觉出来Ray对次贷危机后美联储和财政部的应对措施极其欣赏。附录介绍的宏观审慎政策工具，本质就是指导信贷局部调整，其中一条Changing accounting rules on different assets，这就是20天前人民银行重启的“逆周期因子”吧。。(展开)
去年下半年，有幸跟全国较为优秀的出版集团中信和全球较为优秀的对冲基金桥水合作（此表述符合《新广告法》规定），参与桥水创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises一书的翻译。时隔数月，中文名定为《债务危机》的一书终得出版，今年3月在京...
(展开)
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
2019-04-01 11:452人喜欢
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth.引自 Part 2: US Debt Crisis and Adjustment
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
2018-09-16 21:151人喜欢
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate.引自 Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
2019-04-08 03:031人喜欢
Definitions from Investopedia
Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period.
interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's interest coverage ratio is only 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
The central bank is generally able to bring the economy out of a recession by easing rates to stimulate the cycle anew. ..Because people push it- they have in inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. As a result, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes. This creates the long-term debt cycle引自 The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
2019-08-08 19:25
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting domestic industries...they attract capital from abroad as a country's financial assets become cheaper in global currency terms.引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
THe export industry also thrived, unemployed declined, and as real wages remianed low, business profitability improved...
This was also hope that by encouraging exports and discouraging imports, the mark's decline would be a one-off and would help bring the German balance of payments into equilibrium...引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
《凡尔赛条约》后，为弥补经济上巨大损失，德国采用贬值马克的策略，促进出口和本国企业，逐步缓解收支平衡，负面影响是膨胀率高，市民手中的马克大量贬值。接下来，德国的政策制定者开始处理本国财政问题 (domestic debt burden and the fiscal deficit)
To reduce the deficit, and raise revenues to meet debt liabilities, a comprehensive tax-reform was proposed by finance minister MAtthias Erzberger... The package would transfer from the "haves to the "have-nots" by levying highly progressive taxes on income and tax...Dr. Friedrich Bendixen, who argued that "every effort to collect the monstrous sum through taxes will weaken our productivity and thus reduce receipts and drive the Reich to economic collapse"引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
2019-04-08 03:031人喜欢
Definitions from Investopedia
Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period.
interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's interest coverage ratio is only 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
The central bank is generally able to bring the economy out of a recession by easing rates to stimulate the cycle anew. ..Because people push it- they have in inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. As a result, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes. This creates the long-term debt cycle引自 The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
2019-08-08 19:25
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting domestic industries...they attract capital from abroad as a country's financial assets become cheaper in global currency terms.引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
THe export industry also thrived, unemployed declined, and as real wages remianed low, business profitability improved...
This was also hope that by encouraging exports and discouraging imports, the mark's decline would be a one-off and would help bring the German balance of payments into equilibrium...引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
《凡尔赛条约》后，为弥补经济上巨大损失，德国采用贬值马克的策略，促进出口和本国企业，逐步缓解收支平衡，负面影响是膨胀率高，市民手中的马克大量贬值。接下来，德国的政策制定者开始处理本国财政问题 (domestic debt burden and the fiscal deficit)
To reduce the deficit, and raise revenues to meet debt liabilities, a comprehensive tax-reform was proposed by finance minister MAtthias Erzberger... The package would transfer from the "haves to the "have-nots" by levying highly progressive taxes on income and tax...Dr. Friedrich Bendixen, who argued that "every effort to collect the monstrous sum through taxes will weaken our productivity and thus reduce receipts and drive the Reich to economic collapse"引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
2018-09-16 21:151人喜欢
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate.引自 Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
2019-04-01 11:452人喜欢
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth.引自 Part 2: US Debt Crisis and Adjustment
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting d...
2019-08-08 19:25
Whiile curriencies decline hurt importers and those with debts in foreign currencies, devaluations are stimulative for the economy and its asset markets, which is helpful during a period of economic weakness. Currency decline provide a boost to exports and profit margins, as they make a country's good cheaper on international market. Simultaneously, they make imports more expensive,supporting domestic industries...they attract capital from abroad as a country's financial assets become cheaper in global currency terms.引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
THe export industry also thrived, unemployed declined, and as real wages remianed low, business profitability improved...
This was also hope that by encouraging exports and discouraging imports, the mark's decline would be a one-off and would help bring the German balance of payments into equilibrium...引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
《凡尔赛条约》后，为弥补经济上巨大损失，德国采用贬值马克的策略，促进出口和本国企业，逐步缓解收支平衡，负面影响是膨胀率高，市民手中的马克大量贬值。接下来，德国的政策制定者开始处理本国财政问题 (domestic debt burden and the fiscal deficit)
To reduce the deficit, and raise revenues to meet debt liabilities, a comprehensive tax-reform was proposed by finance minister MAtthias Erzberger... The package would transfer from the "haves to the "have-nots" by levying highly progressive taxes on income and tax...Dr. Friedrich Bendixen, who argued that "every effort to collect the monstrous sum through taxes will weaken our productivity and thus reduce receipts and drive the Reich to economic collapse"引自 Part 2 German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation
Definitions from Investopedia Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period. interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's...
2019-04-08 03:031人喜欢
Definitions from Investopedia
Debt Service: Debt service is the cash that is required to cover the repayment of interest and principal on a debt for a particular period.
interest burden: The company's interest burden is (Pretax income ÷ EBIT). This will be 1.00 for a firm with no debt or financial leverage. The lower the ratio, the more the company is burdened by debt expense. When a company's interest coverage ratio is only 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
The central bank is generally able to bring the economy out of a recession by easing rates to stimulate the cycle anew. ..Because people push it- they have in inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature. As a result, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes. This creates the long-term debt cycle引自 The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth. 感觉这和中国房产一样，人们都期望政府不会让房价贬值，所以都加杠杆上车。
2019-04-01 11:452人喜欢
This case exemplifies the very common problem of politics creating government guarantees (implicit or explicit) that make risky assets appear to be safer than they are. This encourages investors to lever up in them, which feeds bad debt growth.引自 Part 2: US Debt Crisis and Adjustment
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
2018-09-16 21:151人喜欢
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate.引自 Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle
火山超人
中信出版社2019版
我是卢俊
中信出版社2019版
主治医生
中信出版社2019版
子珂
Andy Chan
November Media Publishing & Consulting Firm2018版
![[已软注销]](https://img9.doubanio.com/icon/u15067564-31.jpg)
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. 人类倾向于随大流...
0 有用 长风 2018-11-26
关于宏观经济和货币政策。逻辑清晰，信息量很大，值得再读
0 有用 panda 2019-03-31
债务危机的产生本质上是由于通过借贷投资产生的收益无法覆盖借贷的成本。在对外国投资依赖较少的情况下债务危机往往是通缩性的，反之则往往是通胀性的。债务危机的产生往往都有某一或某些行业的非理性繁荣导致，比如1929年大萧条是因为汽车、铁路基建等产业的繁荣，2008年经济危机是由于房地产次贷引发。基于边际收益递减规律，任何行业在投机过度后必然会产生泡沫，泡沫硬着陆则会产生其对应资产价格的快速大幅下降，如果... 债务危机的产生本质上是由于通过借贷投资产生的收益无法覆盖借贷的成本。在对外国投资依赖较少的情况下债务危机往往是通缩性的，反之则往往是通胀性的。债务危机的产生往往都有某一或某些行业的非理性繁荣导致，比如1929年大萧条是因为汽车、铁路基建等产业的繁荣，2008年经济危机是由于房地产次贷引发。基于边际收益递减规律，任何行业在投机过度后必然会产生泡沫，泡沫硬着陆则会产生其对应资产价格的快速大幅下降，如果产业在经济中占比过大则会导致连锁反应，造成整个经济的通货紧缩、影响预期、形成恶性循环；如果外资投资占比高，则外资在抛售该国货币时更容易造成通货膨胀。而在危机发生时及时救市并不一定完全无效，因为会影响预期、并是一种以时间化解危机的办法，但总有些人要买单，但造成的总影响可能会小，不过最好还是及早预防。 (展开)
0 有用 二年级咨询狗 2020-07-23
先读为敬
16 有用 指上弹冰 2018-09-16
通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧... 通过对历史上债务危机的研究，Ray Dalio和桥水分享了理解债务危机运行的模板。书中将债务危机分为两大类：通缩型债务危机（本币计价债务）和通胀型债务危机（外币计价债务，不容易化解），而减债/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提过很多次，分别是紧缩、债务违约/重组、QE和印钞票、财富转移再分配（这一条是新增加的），如果政策制定者能够快速反应并运用好手中工具，能够实现化解债务危机。其中对魏玛德国恶性通胀、大萧条和次贷危机进行了非常详细的解读，可以感觉出来Ray对次贷危机后美联储和财政部的应对措施极其欣赏。附录介绍的宏观审慎政策工具，本质就是指导信贷局部调整，其中一条Changing accounting rules on different assets，这就是20天前人民银行重启的“逆周期因子”吧。。 (展开)
0 有用 知未 2020-01-06
当时特别担心经济形势找来读的，很多数字图表近乎教科书。所以读得也缓慢。读到德国魏玛共和国的案例那里就没有读下去了。
0 有用 Ms.蔬菜 2021-02-22
华尔街党支部书记还是很有料的 我有一说一😎😎😎
0 有用 大丰年虫 2020-08-09
A great study.
0 有用 二年级咨询狗 2020-07-23
先读为敬
0 有用 Btbvom 2020-07-09
Ray退休了去做经济史学家吧；人的命运在历史的进程面前真的一粒灰都不如，尤其是结合现在来看
0 有用 方脑壳 2020-05-17
非常有趣 对现在的状况有了很多新的认识 值得马上重读一遍