"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
作者简介
· · · · · ·
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationship...
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater is a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Ray s guidance, Bridgewater has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm s success. Since starting Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Ray has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world, the 5th most important company in the U.S. according to Fortune Magazine, and has led it to make more money for clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Ray has also been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and been named one of TIME Magazine s 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, he wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.
目录
· · · · · ·
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
· · · · · ·
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Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13
Our Examination of the Cycle 13
The Phases of the Classic Deflationary Debt Cycle 16
-The Early Part of the Cycle 16
-The Bubble 16
-The Top 21
-The "Depression" 23
-The "Beautiful Deleveraging" 32
-"Pushing on a String" 35
-Normalization 38
Inflationary Depressions and Currency Crises 39
The Phases of the Classic Inflationary Debt Cycle 41
-The Early Part of the Cycle 41
-The Bubble 42
-The Top and Currency Defense 45
-The Depression (Often When the Currency Is Let Go) 49
-Normalization 54
The Spiral from a More Transitory Inflationary
Depression to Hyperinflation 58
War Economies 61
In Summary 64
PART 2: Detailed Case Studies
German Debt Crisis and Hyperinflation (l918-1924}
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (1928-1937)
US Debt Crisis and Adiustment (2007-2011)
PART 3: Compendium of 48 Case Studies
Glossary of Key Economic Terms
Primarily Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Non-Domestic Currency Debt Crises
Appendix: Macroprudential Policies
· · · · · · (收起)
In markets, when there’s a consensus, it gets priced in. This consensus is also typically believed to be a good rough picture of what’s to come, even though history has shown that the future is likely to turn out differently than expected. In other words, humans by nature (like most species) tend to move in crowds and weigh recent experience more heavily than is appropriate. (查看原文)
去年下半年，有幸跟全国较为优秀的出版集团中信和全球较为优秀的对冲基金桥水合作（此表述符合《新广告法》规定），参与桥水创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises一书的翻译。时隔数月，中文名定为《债务危机》的一书终得出版，今年3月在京...
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翻译赵灿
中信出版社2019版
主治Y生
中信出版社2019版
我是卢俊
中信出版社2019版
子珂
栾俊义
November Media Publishing & Consulting Firm2018版
0 有用 Renco 2019-05-29 03:05:26
这是一本全景纪实书，反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言，但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华，Ray保持了足够的中立性。
13 有用 [已软注销] 2019-04-22 14:41:13
应该是我第一本完整看完的英文版经济学书。之前没有经济学基础，经济学方面的词汇量也不够，还是挺吃力的，很多术语只能查 wiki 或 investopedia，前前后后花了有半年时间，总得来说觉得值。最重要的是 Dalio 提供了三次金融危机的非常详细的描述，还有精确到天的报纸的摘要，简直可以每天看一部分然后像真实体验过一样。之后看类似危机分析的书可以拿来做对照。
1 有用 虎子 2021-11-29 02:47:23
只有第一章细细看过，后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感：总的来说，大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的，而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命（想象一下，如果我能活一千年，那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想）。在这个基础上，所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下，个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个c... 只有第一章细细看过，后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感：总的来说，大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的，而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命（想象一下，如果我能活一千年，那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想）。在这个基础上，所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下，个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期，而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。 (展开)
0 有用 lolita83 2022-09-19 23:17:36 新加坡
一本三册。看完了第一册 讲的债务危机的基本类型和原理 能把复杂的事情讲的如此简单 绝对是功力体现 Ray Dalio的新书最近也很火 其实个人感觉不过是这本书的延续 他一直致力于找出现象后面的规律 而经济现象后面的规律本质其实是人性。只要人类这种动物的特性不变这些现象应该会以不同的面貌持续出现下去 延绵不绝。每个普通人其实都应该看看本书 能掌握一点对宏观基本的分析原理。后面两册是具体的各个国家债务... 一本三册。看完了第一册 讲的债务危机的基本类型和原理 能把复杂的事情讲的如此简单 绝对是功力体现 Ray Dalio的新书最近也很火 其实个人感觉不过是这本书的延续 他一直致力于找出现象后面的规律 而经济现象后面的规律本质其实是人性。只要人类这种动物的特性不变这些现象应该会以不同的面貌持续出现下去 延绵不绝。每个普通人其实都应该看看本书 能掌握一点对宏观基本的分析原理。后面两册是具体的各个国家债务危机的case study 明天继续啃 (展开)
5 有用 早就想叫白玉狐 2018-10-12 09:39:05
结合现实看，更为有趣。
0 有用 fufu猫 2024-05-06 16:36:45 四川
除了语言有点啰嗦，很好的书
0 有用 0610 2023-06-24 15:52:07 广西
cycle repeat
0 有用 墨岚渚洲 2023-05-27 08:06:23 浙江
一开始讲原理还不错，到后面指点他国债务问题的时候就很牵强
0 有用 Answer Lu 2023-04-22 14:16:01 上海
too verbise. I'm lost in his words and can't find the exit to get the useful information.10%.
0 有用 Emancipate 2022-09-20 03:00:11 美国
终于读完了。精华在于第一部分最后一节和第二部分的三个案例。其实应该反思的是战争和债务危机的关系。