Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.
Amazon.com
With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and...
Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.
Amazon.com
With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.
From Publishers Weekly
Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.
From Library Journal
For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.
Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY
From Booklist
Bernstein's lively history chronicles a profound transformation in attitudes about the future. How one's fate changed from depending less on capricious outcomes and more on predictable ones forms the backbone of the narrative. His central characters are mathematicians who began pondering the statistics of gambling, or gamblers pondering the risks of gambling: about one sixteenth-century polymath, Girolamo Cardano, Bernstein writes that his "credentials as a gambling addict alone would justify his appearance in the history of risk," and that comment is typical of Bernstein's engaging presentation. Amid his recounting of the insights into probability from Pascal to Keynes, he touches on an array of modern fields in which risk analysis is crucial--insurance, commodities futures, stock markets, and that old standard, gambling. This cornucopia of biographical sketches, mathematical examples, and reflections on the nature of human expectations about the future faces little risk of idling in libraries; patrons of the business section might be keenest to read it.
Gilbert Taylor
From AudioFile
Jesse Boggs honed his expressive, laid-back vocal style narrating his own award-winning documentaries. Here, as reader and abridger, he goes a long way to clarify Bernstein's convoluted theory of risk management. His careful phrasing also brings into high relief the sweeping generalizations and questionable axioms that give pause to the analytic listener. Only in this careful frame of mind can one separate wheat from chaff and learn whatever this book has to teach. Y.R.
The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998
AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."
Book Dimension
length: (cm)22.7 width:(cm)15.2
作者简介
· · · · · ·
PETER L. BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., economic consultants to institutional advisors and corporations. His semimonthly analysis of the capital markets and the real economy, Economics and Portfolio Strategy, is read by managers and owners of investments totaling over one trillion dollars. Mr. Bernstein is the author of many articles in the professional and...
PETER L. BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., economic consultants to institutional advisors and corporations. His semimonthly analysis of the capital markets and the real economy, Economics and Portfolio Strategy, is read by managers and owners of investments totaling over one trillion dollars. Mr. Bernstein is the author of many articles in the professional and popular press, as well as six books in economics and finance, including the bestselling Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street. He is the coeditor of Investment Management (Wiley), and was the first editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management.
目录
· · · · · ·
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
TO 1200: BEGINNINGS
1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role
of the Dice 11
2. As Easy as I, II, III 23
· · · · · ·
(更多)
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
TO 1200: BEGINNINGS
1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role
of the Dice 11
2. As Easy as I, II, III 23
1200–1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS
3. The Renaissance Gambler 39
4. The French Connection 57
5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73
1700–1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED
6. Considering the Nature of Man 99
7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116
8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135
9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152
10. Peapods and Perils 172
11. The Fabric of Felicity 187
1900–1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION
12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197
13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215
14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231
15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247
DEGREES OF BELIEF:EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY
16. The Failure of Invariance 269
17. The Theory Police 284
18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304
19. Awaiting the Wildness 329
Notes 339
Bibliography 353
Name Index 365
Subject Index 369
· · · · · · (收起)
每次看到《against the gods: The remarkable story of risk》出现在我视线范围内，我就不经意的想起莫里斯·克莱因的《古今数学思想史》。 中译本《与天为敌》实际上就是对于赌博或者概率一部简洁而优雅的历史智慧树，在我心中的地位，不亚于上面提到的克莱因的《古今数学思...
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The book was recommended by statistic and finance professors of IUB during college years. It wan't until after graduation that I started to read it, and its interesting stories certainly refreshed my memories of joys i had in statistical and finance classes...
(展开)
253 Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad b...
2021-10-19 09:35:21
253
Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad bargain-by diversifying instead of striving to make a killing-the investor at least maximizes the probability of survival.引自 15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247
172 The simplest answer is that the forces at work in nature are not the same as the forces at work in the human psyche. The accuracy of most forecasts depends on decisions being made by people rather than by Mother Nature. Mother Nature, with all her vagaries, is a lot more dependable than a group of human beings trying to make up their minds about something. 174 Consider those investors who h...
2021-10-13 11:23:08
172
The simplest answer is that the forces at work in nature are not the same as the forces at work in the human psyche. The accuracy of most forecasts depends on decisions being made by people rather than by Mother Nature. Mother Nature, with all her vagaries, is a lot more dependable than a group of human beings trying to make up their minds about something.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
174
Consider those investors who had the temerity to buy stocks in early 1930, right after the Great Crash, when prices had fallen about 50% from their previous highs. Prices proceeded to fall another 80% before they finally hit bottom in the fall of 1932. Or consider the cautious investors who sold out in early 1955, when the Dow Jones Industrials had finally regained their old 1929 highs and had tripled over the preceding six years. Just nine years later, prices were double both their 1929 and their 1955 highs. In both cases, the anticipated return to "normal" failed to take place: normal had shifted to a new location.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
180
From 1800 to 1940, the cost of living had risen an average of only 0.2% a year and had actually declined on 69 occasions. In 1940 the cost-of-living index was only 28% higher than it had been 140 years earlier. Under such conditions, owning assets valued at a fixed number of dollars was a delight; owning assets with no fixed dollar value was highly risky.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
170 Regression to the mean motivates almost every variety of risk-taking and forecasting. It is at the root of homilies like "What goes up must come down," "Pride goeth before a fall," and "From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations." Joseph had this preordained sequence of events in mind when he predicted to Pharaoh that seven years of famine would follow seven years of plenty. It ...
2021-10-13 11:06:26
170
Regression to the mean motivates almost every variety of risk-taking and forecasting. It is at the root of homilies like "What goes up must come down," "Pride goeth before a fall," and "From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations." Joseph had this preordained sequence of events in mind when he predicted to Pharaoh that seven years of famine would follow seven years of plenty. It is what J.P. Morgan meant when he observed that "the market will fluctuate." It is the credo to which so-called contrarian investors pay obeisance: when they say that a certain stock is "overvalued" or "undervalued," they mean that fear or greed has encouraged the crowd to drive the stock's price away from an intrinsic value to which it is certain to return. It is what motivates the gambler's dream that a long string of losses is bound to give way to a long string of winnings.引自 9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152
The word "risk" derives from the early Italian risicare, whjicjh means "to dare." In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. The actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the story of risk is all about. And that story helps define what it means to be a human being.
2015-07-05 22:58:24
The word "risk" derives from the early Italian risicare, whjicjh means "to dare." In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. The actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the story of risk is all about. And that story helps define what it means to be a human being.引自 Introduction
Yet once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. As a result, not-acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination. Hamlet is wrong: he who hesitates is halfway home.
2015-07-05 23:00:47
Yet once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. As a result, not-acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination. Hamlet is wrong: he who hesitates is halfway home.引自 The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice
He postulates a game that ends at an infinite distance in time. At that moment, a coin is tossed. Which way would you bet--heads (God is) or tails (God is not)?
2015-07-07 00:08:23
He postulates a game that ends at an infinite distance in time. At that moment, a coin is tossed. Which way would you bet--heads (God is) or tails (God is not)?引自 The French Connection
253 Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad b...
2021-10-19 09:35:21
253
Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad bargain-by diversifying instead of striving to make a killing-the investor at least maximizes the probability of survival.引自 15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247
172 The simplest answer is that the forces at work in nature are not the same as the forces at work in the human psyche. The accuracy of most forecasts depends on decisions being made by people rather than by Mother Nature. Mother Nature, with all her vagaries, is a lot more dependable than a group of human beings trying to make up their minds about something. 174 Consider those investors who h...
2021-10-13 11:23:08
172
The simplest answer is that the forces at work in nature are not the same as the forces at work in the human psyche. The accuracy of most forecasts depends on decisions being made by people rather than by Mother Nature. Mother Nature, with all her vagaries, is a lot more dependable than a group of human beings trying to make up their minds about something.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
174
Consider those investors who had the temerity to buy stocks in early 1930, right after the Great Crash, when prices had fallen about 50% from their previous highs. Prices proceeded to fall another 80% before they finally hit bottom in the fall of 1932. Or consider the cautious investors who sold out in early 1955, when the Dow Jones Industrials had finally regained their old 1929 highs and had tripled over the preceding six years. Just nine years later, prices were double both their 1929 and their 1955 highs. In both cases, the anticipated return to "normal" failed to take place: normal had shifted to a new location.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
180
From 1800 to 1940, the cost of living had risen an average of only 0.2% a year and had actually declined on 69 occasions. In 1940 the cost-of-living index was only 28% higher than it had been 140 years earlier. Under such conditions, owning assets valued at a fixed number of dollars was a delight; owning assets with no fixed dollar value was highly risky.引自 10. Peapods and Perils 172
170 Regression to the mean motivates almost every variety of risk-taking and forecasting. It is at the root of homilies like "What goes up must come down," "Pride goeth before a fall," and "From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations." Joseph had this preordained sequence of events in mind when he predicted to Pharaoh that seven years of famine would follow seven years of plenty. It ...
2021-10-13 11:06:26
170
Regression to the mean motivates almost every variety of risk-taking and forecasting. It is at the root of homilies like "What goes up must come down," "Pride goeth before a fall," and "From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations." Joseph had this preordained sequence of events in mind when he predicted to Pharaoh that seven years of famine would follow seven years of plenty. It is what J.P. Morgan meant when he observed that "the market will fluctuate." It is the credo to which so-called contrarian investors pay obeisance: when they say that a certain stock is "overvalued" or "undervalued," they mean that fear or greed has encouraged the crowd to drive the stock's price away from an intrinsic value to which it is certain to return. It is what motivates the gambler's dream that a long string of losses is bound to give way to a long string of winnings.引自 9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152
108 These investment managers defined the risk in the NiftyFifty, not as the risk of overpaying, but as the risk of not owning them: the growth prospects seemed so certain that the future level of earnings and dividends would, in God's good time, always justify whatever price they paid. 112 The logical consequence of Bernoulli's insight leads to a new and powerful intuition about taking risk. I...
2021-10-12 14:38:43
108
These investment managers defined the risk in the NiftyFifty, not as the risk of overpaying, but as the risk of not owning them: the growth prospects seemed so certain that the future level of earnings and dividends would, in God's good time, always justify whatever price they paid.引自 6. Considering the Nature of Man 99
112
The logical consequence of Bernoulli's insight leads to a new and powerful intuition about taking risk. If the satisfaction to be derived from each successive increase in wealth is smaller than the satisfaction derived from the previous increase in wealth, then the disutility caused by a loss will always exceed the positive utility provided by a gain of equal size.引自 6. Considering the Nature of Man 99
熊猫哥哥
机械工业出版社2007版
greenhands
机械工业出版社2007版
fats
机械工业出版社2007版
嘿哈嘿哈
舍得
机械工业出版社2007版
253 Although Markowitz never mentions game theory, there is a close resemblance between diversification and von Neumann's games of strategy. In this case, one player is the investor and the other player is the stock market-a powerful opponent indeed and secretive about its intentions. Playing to win against such an opponent is likely to be a sure recipe for losing. By making the best of a bad b...
0 有用 weihu 2016-09-11 22:47:42
看看
0 有用 目送飞鸿 2021-10-20 21:43:32
读这本书，你才知道什么叫erudition
0 有用 K2 2011-08-18 20:56:42
风险管理就是把我们对结果有所控制的领域最大化，而把我们完全不能控制结果和我们弄不清因果联系的领域最小化。
1 有用 如聽萬壑松 2022-07-17 17:48:20
既肤浅又不渊博，和塔勒布差N条街
0 有用 逃走了的Yoyo 2021-11-07 10:10:43
书名起得非常大气，其实是讲概率发展的历史和在金融领域的应用。虽然risk在公司里相对trading似乎总是低人一等，但是自己觉得其实风险管理和交易至少一样重要。尤其是前段时间某投行因为交易杠杆一夜之间亏损20亿美元，同样处境下的高盛却能及时出手将损失控制在了最低，不能不看出业务能力上的差距和风险管理意识的重要性。觉得应用到个人层面也是如此呢，未雨绸缪也是一种需要不断修炼的能力。#UsedToRea... 书名起得非常大气，其实是讲概率发展的历史和在金融领域的应用。虽然risk在公司里相对trading似乎总是低人一等，但是自己觉得其实风险管理和交易至少一样重要。尤其是前段时间某投行因为交易杠杆一夜之间亏损20亿美元，同样处境下的高盛却能及时出手将损失控制在了最低，不能不看出业务能力上的差距和风险管理意识的重要性。觉得应用到个人层面也是如此呢，未雨绸缪也是一种需要不断修炼的能力。#UsedToRead (展开)
1 有用 如聽萬壑松 2022-07-17 17:48:20
既肤浅又不渊博，和塔勒布差N条街
0 有用 风车 2022-04-24 22:08:13
Anecdotal …
0 有用 逃走了的Yoyo 2021-11-07 10:10:43
书名起得非常大气，其实是讲概率发展的历史和在金融领域的应用。虽然risk在公司里相对trading似乎总是低人一等，但是自己觉得其实风险管理和交易至少一样重要。尤其是前段时间某投行因为交易杠杆一夜之间亏损20亿美元，同样处境下的高盛却能及时出手将损失控制在了最低，不能不看出业务能力上的差距和风险管理意识的重要性。觉得应用到个人层面也是如此呢，未雨绸缪也是一种需要不断修炼的能力。#UsedToRea... 书名起得非常大气，其实是讲概率发展的历史和在金融领域的应用。虽然risk在公司里相对trading似乎总是低人一等，但是自己觉得其实风险管理和交易至少一样重要。尤其是前段时间某投行因为交易杠杆一夜之间亏损20亿美元，同样处境下的高盛却能及时出手将损失控制在了最低，不能不看出业务能力上的差距和风险管理意识的重要性。觉得应用到个人层面也是如此呢，未雨绸缪也是一种需要不断修炼的能力。#UsedToRead (展开)
0 有用 目送飞鸿 2021-10-20 21:43:32
读这本书，你才知道什么叫erudition
0 有用 超哥 2021-02-28 11:29:08
反对“众神”，人类可以自己控制命运