Distinguish Smart Choices from Good Consequences
A smart choice, a bad consequence.
A poor choice, a good consequence.
Decisions under uncertainty should be judged by the quality of the decision making, not by the quality of the consequences. (查看原文)
...my way is to divide half a sheet of paper by a line into two columns; writing over the one pro, and over the other con. Then during three or four days consideration, I put down under the different heads short hints of the different motives, that at different times occur to me, for or against the measure.
When I have thus got them all together in one view, I endeavor to estimate their respective weights; and where I find two, one on each side, that seem equal, I strike them both out. If I find a reason pro equal to two reasons con, I strike out the three. If I judge some two reasons con, equal to some three reasons pro, I strike out the five; and thus proceeding I find at length where the balance lies; and if, after a day or two of further consideration, nothing new that is of importanc... (查看原文)
Smart Choice》 --A Practical Guide To Making Better Decisions By John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa 生活是选择的过程。如果您曾经因为面临抉择而左右为难、转辗难寐，曾经因为错误的选择而后悔不已，请阅读《Smart Choice》。这是一本好书，A Practical G...
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岁月神偷
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晓荷
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0 有用 猫熊不要黑眼圈 2009-12-07 11:49:37
P89 权衡：首先剔除被支配方案，再对剩余方案做等价置换。
0 有用 Hammer_ 2011-10-20 09:30:37
教科书式的，很无聊，不易懂
0 有用 七夕 2018-08-12 02:02:46
这么好的一本书，越早看越有收获啊，强烈推荐。。。
1 有用 亡口月贝凡 2005-11-05 15:19:05
非常实用
1 有用 飘飘白云 2010-12-15 22:54:37
如何做好决策？第一：界定问题；第二：确定目标；第三：可选方案；第四：预测结果；第五：设定评判标准，权衡；第六：考虑不确定性；第七：评估风险；第八：预测关联影响，计划未来。即所谓 PrOACT 法则。